Projected line: 154 Points
Tulsa was extremely competitive in the first two games even though they lost both with bad decisions down the stretch. They play in a fast pace and by being aggressive on the defensive end, they want to create turnovers and score in transition. San Antonio and Phoenix had 24 and 23 TO’s against them and no surprisingly the Shock scored double digits fast break points in both games. Their perimeter game is really strong and I expect them to create some problems to Washington’s defense. Washington committed 23 turnovers in their first game vs. Chicago – poor ball handling so Tulsa will be able to once again execute their game plan.
The weakest part of this Tulsa team is their interior defense. They allowed 40 and 48 points in the paint L2 games and this bodes well for Washington because the Mystics’ strength relies on their frontcourt. Langhorne and Currie performed well against Chicago (that features the best defensive player in the league in Fowles) w/14 and 16 points & a combined 12-21 FG mark. Against Tulsa poor interior defense, WAS won’t have any problem to score easy points down low. With Tulsa dictating the tempo of the game I have this contest to easily reach the 150’s points mark.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601/602 Over 149 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
WNBA - 605 LA Spars @ 606 Phoenix Mercury
Projected line: 175 Points
Projected line: 175 Points
This will be the Sparks’ third game in just 5 days with long trips for every game (LA-MIN-PHX) and with them being shorthanded I don’t think that LA will be able to play consistent basketball for 40min. In fact, already against the Champions Lynx they simply ran out of gas in the last quarter. After scoring 19, 28 and 23 points, The Sparks were held to just 14 points in the last 10 minutes of the game. According to Phoenix’s head coach:
"They'll probably see a team that's talking better on defense," Mercury coach Corey Gaines said. "Our defensive schemes are better. Hopefully our defense shows up and our offense will catch up."
The Mercury have been working much more on defense; Gaines estimates it takes up "70 percent" of practice. Much of the defensive concepts have been man-to-man. Forward Candice Dupree said the team has yet to work on the "rover zone," a modified matchup zone defense that the Mercury have been playing since at least 2007.
Yes, we are still waiting for Phoenix to deliver a good defensive effort after allowing 105 points to Minnesota and 87 points to Tulsa but today against a Sparks’ team in a bad physical spot, they’ll have a good chance.
The Mercury’s best player Taurasi is banged up and without their best interior player for the season, Phoenix won’t be able to dominate on the offensive end. In the first two games they’ve committed 17 and 23 turnovers so I don’t think that this contest will be a complete shootout as I’ve handicapped this contest to have 175 points.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605/606 Under 178 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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