Projected line: Bayern Munchen -200
Despite being a Final, I had Bayern Munchen with a fair line of -200 and I have to confess that I’m a bit pissed off of not releasing this play earlier – it would have been a Top Play obviously! However there were 3 Chelsea’s players in doubt for this contest during the week: their 2 center backs David Luiz and Cahill and their left winger Malouda so I’ve decided to wait for an accurate report. Apparently both Luiz and Cahill are fit while Malouda is a game time decision.
Chelsea will be shorthanded for this contest as Ramires, Meireles, Terry and Ivanovic are all suspended. Without Terry and Ivanovic, Chelsea’s central defense is a bit inexperience and prone to commit errors (especially from Luiz) with Luiz and Cahill being the starters and the Germans had a great striker on Marion Gomez but it is on the midfield where Bayern Munchen will have the biggest edge on the pitch.
Chelsea’s best player this season has been unquestionably the Brazilian Ramires and his absence hurts the team in both ways because Ramires not only is their best defensive midfielder but also his remarkable speed makes him a threat on the offensive end, while Meireles is another box-to-box midfielder for them. Just the potential scenario that Frank Lampard will have to play 90 minutes today is a scary proposition for Chelsea because Lampard no longer has the proper stamina to play in a game like this with a high tempo.
Chelsea was able to be in this final due to their defensive prowerness, no wonder their coach is Italian but I don’t think that their defensive formula who worked well against SL Benfica and Barcelona will work today against Bayern.
Both the Portuguese and the Spanish side supported their offensive game to the center of the field. It was really bizarre watching almost every Barcelona midfielder and attacker positioned on the center field against Chelsea despite playing against 10 Chelsea’s players in the second half! It is easier to defend for Chelsea’s who even put their striker Didier Drogba on the side of their defense…
The problem is that unlike Benfica or Barcelona, Bayern’s offense is an offense built to attack from their wing players. They have Ribery and Robben who gives the proper depth on the field and makes tougher to defend while they have a powerful striker on the middle that can finish and hold the ball.
Bayern’s has some weakness on the defensive end but because I expect Chelsea’s game plan to lay back and defend, I don’t think that their weakness will be fully explored.
Finally, note that Bayern will play at home. It’s in their stadium, they know the pitch and they’ll have the majority of the supporters (60/40) but at the end, they will win just because they are the better team in here!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Bayern Munchen ML @ -143 / 1.70 on Pinnacle
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