NBA - 703 Boston Celtics @ 704 Miami Heat
Projected lines: 183 points | Miami by 4 points
Boston is coming from a very tough series against Philadelphia, where they needed 7 games to beat the 76ers. So, the spot isn't great for them today, as the Celtics are a bit banged up and had just 1 day off to rest and prepare for this contest. However, I believe Boston has enough conditions to make this game competitive and I believe fatigue may be a factor but just down the stretch, something not enough for Miami to be able to cover such a large spread.
Matchup wise, Boston will be the first team that has the tools to cause problems to Miami's defense. The Heat have been struggling this season in defending spot up plays and when Miami faced teams with an excellent ball movement, they kept showing problems in closing out the shooters. Lebron and Wade are excellent team help defenders, but against a sharp ball movement like the Celtics', they aren't quick enough in closing the gaps.
Until now, Miami faced the Knicks and Indiana in the post season, two teams with a stagnant offense, so I'll show you the assists rate of these two teams in comparison with Boston during the regular season: Indiana was #25 with 52.98%, the Knicks were #22 with 55.4%, while Boston was... #1 with 65.3%! Also during this playoffs, the Knicks averaged 12.6 assists per game against Miami, Indiana averaged 16.3 assists per game against Miami, while the Celtics are averaging 21.5 assists per game in this playoffs! Boston will also use their big advantage on the frontcourt with Garnett and Bass vs Battier and Turiaf/Anthony to create mismatches on the outside. Miami will have a tough assignment in stopping Garnett, who is smart enough to pass the ball to the open man on the outside.
On the other side, Miami's offense exploded in the game 4 against Indiana and since then, they have been great. Wade was obviously the key, but the Hear is also now moving the ball better and more importantly, they are moving without the ball as well. In games 2 and 3 against Indiana, Miami shot a combined of 15-61 24% FG in cuts, spot ups and transitions, while in games 4, 5 and 6, they improved those numbers to 50-81 61.7% FG! Bradley would surely be a huge defensive lift for Boston in order to stop Wade, but with his absence and a hobbled Allen, Wade will have a good chance to come up big in this series. The three best offensive games of the 76ers in their series against the Celtics were when they pushed the ball and scored double digits points on fast breaks (games 1, 3 & 4) and I expect Miami to have obviously a similar edge in this department against a slow footed Celtics team.
I believe both teams will have some offensive edge for this game and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here looking at the very low totals line. I also believe Boston will have the mental edge for this contest and so, I expect them to turn this game into a competitive battle. So, I'll also be taking the Celtics tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 179,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Boston Celtics (+8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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