Friday, May 18, 2012

NBA Premium Play 05/17: Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs


NBA - 519 Los Angeles Clippers @ 520 San Antonio Spurs

Projected line: 200 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

What San Antonio did in Game 1 was just routine for them. They had an offensive rating of 116.9, nothing special having in account that in their first three games against Utah, they had offensive rates of 114.6, 127.1 and 115.9! Naturally that it will be hard for San Antonio to repeat the 13-25 numbers behind the arc, however note that most of those 3pts shots were a result of an excellent ball movement. No team in the league can even get close to the excellency of the Spurs floor spacing. 

Even though these numbers are very good, I believe that the Spurs can still improve in some aspects. It isn't normal for them to have 18 TO and some of them were actually quite sloppy. Tony Parker has been their best player this season, but he is coming from a really subpar game with 1-9 FG! That won't happen again tonight for sure! San Antonio also missed some easy shots at the rim, as their 15-26 FG mark proves it. Bottom line, San Antonio may not be as good behind the arc as they were in Game 1, but that should be more than compensated with less turnovers and with a better game from Parker.

In terms of the Clippers, Chris Paul played terribly in Game 1! He shot 3-13 FG, with 0-7 FG in the 2nd half. San Antonio decided to change the defensive coverage on him by daring him to go to the side instead of the top of the key, where he really excels and Paul really struggled to adjust to that. So, it was Bledsoe the star of the Clippers in Game 1 and his speed is a plus for the team: one of the weakest links of the Spurs defense is in fact their transition defense and Bledsoe can surely hurt them.

Game 1 had a pace of 92.6, the kind of pace San Antonio have been playing their postseason games and so, I'll expect this game to be a player in a similar pace. San Antonio's offense will shine once again as usual, while Chris Paul will bounce back today and lead his team to fine offensive night as well. Therefore, I believe this game will once again go Over the total posted and so, I'll take the Over in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 519/520 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

No comments:

Post a Comment