NBA - 701 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 702 San Antonio Spurs
Projected line: 208 points | San Antonio by 8 points
This series will be without a doubt the best series of this year's playoffs and possibly whoever wins it will become NBA champions if Chris Bosh doesn't recover in time to join his Miami team mates. I've been giving a lot of praise to what the Spurs offense has been doing not only in this playoffs like also in the regular season. They didn't have any kind of letdown in the playoffs until now by averaging 114.20 in offensive ratings, while having just a subpar offensive performance against the Jazz in the close out game.
In the regular season, this series ended with 2-1 favoring the Sputs, but besides the fact that all three games were fast paced ones, we shouldn't take any logical conclusion for this series, as not only Ginobili didn't play any of the games, as the Thunder always faced San Antonio while being on a back to back spot in the three games, with San Antonio was rested in their two wins.
The key factor of this series will be the Thunder frontcourt, as Ibaka and especially Perkins are one-dimensional players. Ibaka is still capable of shooting from mid range, but offensively these two players don't add a lot to the team, while defensively, they also can't defend anybody far from the basket. Ibaka's defensive game is down low exclusively where he excels in blocks, while Perkins simply has no mobility to defend well on the outside. Popovich will surely explore that as Duncan will be defended by one of these two players, with the other staying with one of the Spurs' stretched frontcourt players. Can you imagine Ibaka defending Bonner behind the 3pts line? Besides that, Diaw is also playing great and he can knock down jumpers as well, so coach Brooks won't have any choice than play small with Durant in the PF position. But the time that it will take him to realize that will give the Spurs a very good number of points today. Also, Oklahoma's previous opponents (Dallas & La Lakers) didn't use P&R plays against them, but in this series their defense will be exposed in this kind of play by both Parker and Ginobili.
The key factor of this series will be the Thunder frontcourt, as Ibaka and especially Perkins are one-dimensional players. Ibaka is still capable of shooting from mid range, but offensively these two players don't add a lot to the team, while defensively, they also can't defend anybody far from the basket. Ibaka's defensive game is down low exclusively where he excels in blocks, while Perkins simply has no mobility to defend well on the outside. Popovich will surely explore that as Duncan will be defended by one of these two players, with the other staying with one of the Spurs' stretched frontcourt players. Can you imagine Ibaka defending Bonner behind the 3pts line? Besides that, Diaw is also playing great and he can knock down jumpers as well, so coach Brooks won't have any choice than play small with Durant in the PF position. But the time that it will take him to realize that will give the Spurs a very good number of points today. Also, Oklahoma's previous opponents (Dallas & La Lakers) didn't use P&R plays against them, but in this series their defense will be exposed in this kind of play by both Parker and Ginobili.
On the other side, the Thunder are also in a completely different level from Utah and the Clippers, San Antonio's first two opponents in the postseason. San Antonio's run has been great, but they faced a one-dimensional team in Utah that just couldn't hit from the outside (35-100 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-45 3pts) and then, they also faced the hobbled Clippers, with Paul, Blake and Butler banged up and with the team from LA lacking any other offensive weapons that could hang with the Spurs' offensive strength. It was comical at times to watch Evans and Jordan playing together on offense during that series!
So, the Spurs' defense wasn't attacked in the perimeter from Utah and the Clippers, something that will radically change with Oklahoma City due to Westbrook, Harden and Durant! The Thunder will also explore the Spurs' bad transition defense (they scored double digits fast break points in all three regular season games against San Antonio) and they can really hit some great shots from the outside.
So, the Spurs' defense wasn't attacked in the perimeter from Utah and the Clippers, something that will radically change with Oklahoma City due to Westbrook, Harden and Durant! The Thunder will also explore the Spurs' bad transition defense (they scored double digits fast break points in all three regular season games against San Antonio) and they can really hit some great shots from the outside.
I expect a fast paced game tonight, with both team's great offensive game taking advantage of their edges today and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. I'll be also taking the Spurs today, as they will be better prepared for tonight's game, especially in taking advantage of Perkins' and Ibaka's problems in defending far from the basket.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 San Antonio Spurs (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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