NBA - 527 Denver Nuggets @ 528 Los Angeles Lakers
Projected line: 205 points / LA Lakers by 2 points
In Game 1, it happened to Denver what happened to Indiana in their 1st game against Orlando. They showed all their inexperience and they couldn't execute well their gameplan and when they started to try to play closer to their level, they were already down by 14-27 after the 1st quarter! Note that in the following three quarters, Lakers outscored Denver, but just by 76-73! This series puts two very different styles head to head and Denver simply couldn't put their game into play:
“We weren’t ready to play,” Denver’s Corey Brewer said of his team. “Tonight we got to come out aggressive and jump on them early.”
“The most-important thing is – we need to start playing our way and not their way,” Nuggets coach George Karl said today, as his team prepares for tonight’s Game 2 at Staples Center, where Denver will try to split the series. “Our way is more pace and penetration and making better shot-selection decisions. Defensively, we did some good things, but we just allowed too many easy baskets and paint points. We usually win the paint war. We didn’t win the paint war. We need to put the loss in the rear-view mirror and look forward to tonight.”
"We talked about bouncing back, about coming out more aggressive," Lawson said Monday before practice. "I think we're both on the same page. ... I was being tentative, wasn't attacking and that hasn't been my game. ... And Arron, he can't wait to step on the court. He wishes the game was right now. He's a battler. He's going to come back stronger."
Denver couldn't push the pace like they wished in Game 1. They had just 5-8 FG in transitions, while the Lakers shot 7-8 FG in transition! They simply weren't aggressive enough! Denver's offense had as their gameplan to score points in the paint and manage to shoot close to basket with ease: they had 39 FGA at the rim and 15 FGA from 3-9 feet! The problem was their lack of efficiency and how they shot: 19-39 FG at the rim and 2-15 FG from 3-9 feet! Denver was basically just using ISO plays to attack the basket and that was easily stopped by the Lakers frontcourt, especially Bynum. Note that Denver had 22 ISO plays (20% volume) against the 11 ISO plays from the Lakers, when their season average is close to 10% volume! For today, I expect Denver to attack the basket once again but in a different way, with better spacing and especially with their guards passing the ball more, something that both Lawson and Affalo couldn't do in Game 1!
On the other hand, the Lakers offense did very well overall. They took advantage of their size edge to pound down low by shooting 20-25 FG at the rim and 10-15 FG from 3-9 feet and this edge will always exist during this series. However, I don't believe some of their role players will shoot so well today like they did in Game 1, like Ebanks with 5-6 FG or Blake 3-6 3pts. But also 11-15 FT won't happen again, as Denver's defense will be more aggressive today, they will try to create more turnovers and they won't make things so easy to the Lakers' frontcourt today: they will foul them!
I expect a faster game today, with more fouls, more fast break points for Denver, with the Nuggets being much more competitive today. I believe in a complete ballgame today, in a game full of offense and therefore, I'll take both Denver and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 527/528 Over 201,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 527 Denver Nuggets (+5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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