NBA - 541 Chicago Bulls @ 542 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected line: 171 points | Chicago by 3 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
In the Game 2 of this series, there was a combination of two main factors that made Chicago to lose the game clearly: the Bulls defense didn't exist and Philadelphia made a ton of tough shots. To add to these two important things, D-Rose was out and the team's mood seemed down because of that and especially coach Thibs was horrible in the in-game adjustments.
After a Game 1 where the pace was 92.3, I predicted the pace of Game 2 to be much lower because of Chicago and that happened, as the pace was 84.7! Now what I didn't expect was Chicago to defend so badly by allowing an offensive rate of 130 to Philadelphia, with the Sixers shooting 59% FG: the worst FG% allowed ever during the Thibodeau era in Chicago! Note that the Bulls has lost just two other games by 17 or more points since Thibs was hired by Chicago plus the Bulls has allowed just 18 of their 166 opponents under Thibodeau to shoot 50% FG or more!
We all know that Philadelphia is a jump shooting team and in this game, Philadelphia was more efficient with 9-12 FG from 10-15 feet, 10-24 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-12 3pts, however I highlight two factors: Philadelphia scored 25 fast break points with super efficient numbers (8-12 FG in transitions with 1.36 PPP) and also they crushed the Bulls in ISO plays with super efficient numbers once again (8-15 FG in ISO plays with 1.27 PPP). Note that we are talking about Chicago, who was the #3 best defense in the league in defending ISO plays with 0.75 PPP on these two plays! The good part is that the coach and the plays recognized these defensive problems:
"They got into the open floor and crushed us off isolation," Thibodeau said. "It was an offensive game from the start," Thibodeau moaned after the game, clearly indicating that he doesn't approve of such contests by his use of the double entendre. "We never got our defense going."
“We’re a help defensive team,” said Carlos Boozer. “We can’t let our guards be on an island out there by themselves. We’ve got to show our help, fake our help. We’ve got to rebound the ball better, get back in transition better. “We have to do a lot of things better,” added Boozer. “But it’s also things we’ve been doing all year. We don’t have to reinvent the wheel. We just have to do it better. It became an offensive game (109-92 Game 2 loss) instead of us playing our defense."
On offense, Chicago showed natural problems without Derrick Rose. They aren't as explosive now as they were with Rose, so Chicago had less FTA and less transitions points than they would have with Rose on court. However, they still shot 45% FG with Noah having a monster and improbable game with 10-11 FG, while being the Bulls leading scorer. These numbers are what I expect from Chicago in a regular basis for the rest of the series.
For today, I expect the pace to be similar to the one in Game 2. Chicago will play with the same offense, having some natural struggles, however the key will be on the defensive end. Chicago will be ready for this game and they will limit the transition points from Philadelphia, causing huge problems to the Sixers offense. I give a tremendous rebounding edge for Chicago on this contest, as coach Collins decided to put back Hawes into the starting lineup and if we combine all of this with Chicago's bounce back mentality, I expect the Bulls to have a great defensive performance tonight, winning the game in the process. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play and Chicago on a Single Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 541/542 Under 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 541 Chicago Bulls (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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