Projected line: Boston by 3 points | 171 Points
Avery Bradley didn’t play in the last game and Doc Rivers had no choice but to use a traditional lineup all game long. Deliberated or not, it worked for the Celtics and I don’t think that Doc Rivers will change his approach for tonight’s game.
In the first games of this series, Rivers used a lineup of Rondo-Bradley-Allen-Pierce-
In game 5, Rivers played always with two traditional “bigs” on the floor. Stiemsma who didn’t play a single minute in game 4 logged 14 minutes in game 5 and the Celtics frontcourt absolutely crushed the 76ers interior defense! Stiemsma had 5-5 FG and 10 points, Garnett went 8-17 FG and Bass went 9-13 FG, scored 27 points and alone he outscored the 76ers in the third quarter (18-16)! This was the key for the Celtics for their win! The 76ers doesn’t have two good interior players that can play against Garnett and Bass. Hawes is a defensive liability; Brand is battling some nagging injuries and after a good first half he completely faded apart in the second half – he played 30 minutes and I don’t think he will have any energy left in the tank; Young is useless in this scenario and he showed why in G5 w/3-8FG and 4 turnovers in just 18 minutes and finally Lavoy Allen is the only 76ers player that is capable of hanging with the Celtics frontcourt. However Allen is still a rookie and foul trouble is a potential problem for him especially if Doug Collins decided to use Allen on Garnett all game long.
Pace factor of this series:
Game 1: 90.3
Game 2: 90.3
Game 3: 85.5
Game 4: 87.9
Game 5: 82.8
Obviously, by not going small and laboring almost exclusively in the halfcourt, the Celtics turned game 5 into the slowest contest so far in this series. I don’t think that this will change for tonight and so, the 76ers offense will be on trouble because they simply cannot score in half court sets against the Celtics. Remember that in game 4, 52 of their total 92 points came exclusively from fast break and free throw chances and the Celtics will limit their FB chances for tonight.
On the other end, I don’t think that the Celtics’ offense will be as a good as they were in the last game! Boston enjoyed a nice 2-day off span to prepare game 4 and they were able to be aggressive and attempted a series high - 33 free throws! By going “big”, the Celtics crushed the 76ers interior defense -> 19-26FG at the rim! They caught Philadelphia off guard and obviously the 76ers will be prepared for this tonight.
However this is a tough mental spot for a younger team like Philadelphia! With the game on the line, I really don’t think that they will have the proper mental toughness to beat an experienced team like the Celtics. I remember that in the pivotal game 6 against the Bulls in the first round, the 76ers was leading 48-40 at the break just to allow the shorthanded Bulls come back in the second half and only two late free throws by Iguodala knocked out the Bulls.
I expect the Celtics to finish off the series tonight in a low scoring game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 541 Boston Celtics (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on BookmakerPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 541/542 Under 175.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek
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