NBA - 539 Atlanta Hawks @ 540 Boston Celtics
Projected line: Boston 94 points | Boston by 16 points
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
***ADDED PLAY***
NOTE: Josh Smith is now officially out for this contest, while Ray Allen is probable!
This is the Game 3 of this series, with the series being currently tied 1-1. In the first two games, it was evident one thing that it had already been clear during the regular season: Atlanta's offense really can't generate points against Boston's defense. The Hawks with Larry Drew as a coach continue being one of the slowest paced teams in the league, with a heavy tendency to use ISO plays and that really doesn't work against the most likely best help team defense in the league.
The problem with going 1-on-1 in the context of a static offense is that it really means going 1-on-5 against a help defense as skilled as the one played by the Boston Celtics. Atlanta lacks a big man capable of demanding double teams, so the undersized Celtics frontcourt has no problems on this series. Atlanta had 22% of volume on ISO plays in their game with 4-18 FG and also 27% volume in spot up plays, having shot 8-25 FG on those plays. We are talking about almost 50% of volume in these two kind of plays against a defense that was during the regular season the 2nd best in defending ISO plays and the best one in defending spot up plays! This kind of offense simply doesn't work against Boston! Also note that in last game's last 17:42, Atlanta scored just one assisted basket!
For today's game, we have also the question with Josh Smith. He is listed as doubtful and even if he plays, he won't be at 100%. Without Josh, offensively the team will lose one of their best players and Atlanta's bench has been mediocre in this series, so good things aren't expected for them today. What Atlanta may try to do is to play faster than usual, however in my opinion, Atlanta's biggest problem without Josh will be on defense. The Hawks have no reliable big man without Horford and Zaza and so, in this context, Josh has been a kind of Garnett in Atlanta. In the first two games, Josh grabbed 18 and 12 rebounds, which represented 41% and 37% of the total defensive rebounds that the team had. Without Josh or with Josh limited, the Hawks will have no chances! Teague has been well defended by Bradley and he had just 2A and 2TO in game 2 and so, all the Hawks have left is Joe Johnson, who is a kind of Melo in Atlanta: when it comes to the 4th quarter, he has no gas left in the tank!
I have also to say that Boston's offense has been struggling to score against Atlanta, however with an injured Josh, it will be much easier for them. Rondo will be back and with him healthy and fired up, he will be a massive matchup problem for Atlanta. Also note that Boston had just 14 assists in Game 2, a number that Rondo may get on his own today!
With this game being the first played in Boston on this series, I expect a strong start from the Celtics today and with the weak mental toughness that the Hawks have, I don't expect them to ever come back in the score, especially with all the problems they have right now. I expect a massive win for Boston today and therefore, I'll take them in here in a Triple Dime Play!
ADDITIONAL NOTE: As I've said, Josh Smith is out for today and now Ray Allen is probable. Apparently, both Marvin Williams and Tracy McGrady will share minutes as SF and naturally, this will be horrible for the Hawks defense. Note that Josh Smith's on/off court numbers are ridiculous. With him on court, Boston has an offensive rate on this series of 85.8, while with him out, Boston has an offensive rate of 109.7! I won't take the Over in here, as I question Atlanta's offensive efficiency for today. However, I have Boston to have an offensive rate between 105 and 115 today, which in my predicted pace range gives me a range of 94/97 points scored. Therefore, I'll be taking Boston to go Over on their team total today!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 540 Boston Celtics (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
***ADDED PLAY***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 540 Boston Celtics TEAM TOTAL OVER 90,5 POINTS @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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