NBA - 507 Los Angeles Lakers @ 508 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected line: 196 points | Oklahoma City by 15 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Lakers finally clinched the series against Denver last Saturday, but the "reward" for such win is that they will face the Thunder with just 1 day off to rest. This is a terrible spot for them, especially when Kobe played 45 minutes, World Peace 44 minutes, Gasol 41 minutes and Bynum 43 minutes! Oklahoma City knows that and their game plan for today will be easy to understand: run, run and run! The Lakers has already shown that when they don't have legs like in the Game 6 against Denver, they simply don't run back to defense. The Thunder will push up the pace and attack the rim tonight, in the same way the Nuggets did the whole series against the Lakers.
However, the big difference between Denver and Oklahoma City is that the Thunder have a huge superiority over the Nuggets in terms of long range shooting. While Denver shot 35.3% FG from 16-23 feet, 27.8% 3pts and 71.8% FT, Oklahoma City shot 37.2% FG from 16-23 feet, 41.2% 3pts and 86% FT! One of the problems of the Thunder this season has been the turnovers, but the Lakers defense isn't aggressive enough to bother them in this department.
Both Gasol and Bynum will still have some edge down low, but Oklahoma City is an underrated interior defensive team and more important than that, after a huge effort in the Game 7 against Denver, I don't believe that Bynum and Gasol will have enough stamina to dominate in both ends of the floor today. Bynum may have a solid offensive game tonight, but I can't imagine him to defensively recover in time while Oklahoma City pushes the ball early on the shotclock.
Of course, there's the fact that the Thunder hasn't played a game in more than one week. However, I don't believe the rust factor will hurt them tonight, as in the regular season, when the Thunder had more than 2 days off to rest, they went 6-2 ATS in the following game. Also historically, teams with a lot of time off between series are keen to perform extremely well in the Game 1 of the following series. Therefore, I expect a clear double digits win for Oklahoma City tonight and so, I'll take them in here in a Double Dime Play! As I expect the Thunder to push up the pace today and make this game being played at a really fast pace and with Oklahoma City having everything to perform very well on offense tonight, while the Lakers should also have some edge down low, I'm also taking the Over in here in a Single Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 508 Oklahoma City Thunder (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 191,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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