NBA - 537 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 538 Dallas Mavericks
Projected line: 188 points | Dallas by 6 points
Dallas could have won both games in Oklahoma City, but down the stretch they made some silly errors. This is surprising because in my opinion we are talking one of the three teams, together with Boston and San Antonio, best well coached in terms of game planning. What was clear was that Dallas can defend Oklahoma City very well in half court. In fact, in game 2, we had Durant with -7 in the team's +/- in 43 minutes played, with Westbrook also having -3 in the team's +/-! The key for the Thunder's win was their bench. Oklahoma City struggled in P&R's, spot ups and even in post up plays, however they excelled in two areas: free throws with 37-39 FT and transitions with 10-14 FG in transition plays!
For today, I expect to see the refs favoring a bit the home team and with that Dallas will be more physical. I also think that Dallas has advantage in slowing down the pace, preventing Oklahoma City to have a huge number of transitions points today. With this, I expect Dallas to have the edge in the half court and looking at how important this game is for the defending champions, I expect a massive effort from them today. Therefore, I expect a good win for Dallas in a slow paced game and so, I'll be taking both Dallas and the Under today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 537/538 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 538 Dallas Mavericks (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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