Tuesday, May 22, 2012

NBA 05/21 Premium Play: Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder


NBA - 535 Los Angeles Lakers @ 536 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected line: 185 points | Oklahoma City by 4 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

These two teams are coming from a Game 4, who had once again a super slow pace:

Game 1: 86.10
Game 2: 82.18
Game 3: 87.74
Game 4: 84.36

In these circumstances, the Lakers are able to be competitive, as their frontcourt can keep up the pace in both ends of the floor and that's why they have been getting a rebounding edge in every game of this series. After the Game 1, the Lakers were always able to be competitive, as in the half court basketball, the Thunder's offense isn't that sharp.

Note that in Game 4, Oklahoma City shot 49.4% FG, while converting 38 FG shots, but they still had only 16 assists. After their 20-assist mark in the Game 1, the Thunder had just 15, 13 and 16 assists in the following games, a very low number. Oklahoma City shot 11-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-16 3pts, but this was the result of them making tough shots and not because of a good offensive flow that simply didn't exist. On the other hand, the Lakers have been getting a great edge from their big men and their 20-29 FG mark at the rim was great against a great interior defense like Oklahoma City, but once again down the stretch, they got tired and Kobe just tried to do too much. 

After 4 games, I don't believe that it will happen a radical change in the pace of today's game. So, we can expect this contest to be once again a half court game, where both teams will have to shoot better than 45% FG or more than 25 FT each for this contest to go over the total posted. I find that unlikely to happen, as with this game being their 3rd game in 4 nights and with a trip in the middle! Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play. As I expect the Lakers to be competitive today in tonight's half court game, I'll be also taking them in a Single Dime Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 535/536 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 535 Los Angeles Lakers (+7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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