NBA - 501 Indiana Pacers @ 502 Miami Heat
Projected line: Miami by 12 points
Indiana had no problems in dominating Orlando, but still they showed some inexperience by losing the Game 1 of the series after being clear favorites since the start and they also blew a huge lead in Game 4, but they were able to win in overtime at Orlando. The question that we put in handicapping a new series has to do with the necessary adjustments and Miami has absolutely nothing to do with Orlando.
The Magic didn't have a single player capable of demanding a double team, so Indiana's defense was able to defend straight up every Magic player. Orlando wasn't aggressive and Indiana was one of the worst teams in the league in sending their opponents to the FT line by allowing Orlando to have 11, 19, 18, 28 (OT game) and 19 free throws!
These two factors will radically change this series as Miami has three players who are capable of creating their own shot, so the Pacers won't have the luxury of defending straight up like they could do against Orlando. During this week, Indiana's coach Voegel said that Miami's players are floppers and the reason for that comment is simple: Miami will have a huge number of Free Throws against the Pacers, as just note that in the four games between the two teams in the regular season, Miami had 28, 35, 31 and 37 FT against Indiana. I believe that the referees won't give any break to the Pacers defense just because of this comment and that in fact, Miami will come even more aggressive for this series.
Defensively, Miami has the tools to stop Indiana's offense. I know Miami doesn't have a true center, but their defensive philosophy won't allow Indiana's frontcourt players to have any chance to shine. Miami was #2 in the league in defending at the rim and #3 in defending post up plays. In the four games between the two teams during the regular season, Indiana had just 10, 17, 11 and 14 FG made at the rim! With their interior game stopped, Indiana's perimeter offense isn't consistent enough to hang around an aggressive Miami team. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Heat today and so, I'll take them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Miami Heat (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment