NBA - 543 Los Angeles Lakers @ 544 Denver Nuggets
Projected line: 208 points
Denver made the correct adjustments in Game 2 and really improved their offense. From an offensive rate of 95.6 in Game 1, they had 110 in Game 2! Coach Karl said that he wanted to see his team playing more aggressively, pushing more the pace and this was exactly what happened. The pace in Game 1 was 90.5, while the pace in Game 2 was 92.6! Suddenly, the team scored 30 fast break points, with 10-19 FG in transitions and they also pounded the Lakers down low in a completely different way that the Lakers did to them. The Lakers dominate the paint with their frontcourt, while Denver dominates the paint with their guards and after a subpar game from Lawson in Game 1, he had 6-7 FG at the rim in Game 2! The starting lineup of the Nuggets is struggling, but once Denver plays with their usual small lineup with Lawson & Miller on court, they have a net rating of +10.8 points in the series!
So, there isn't a factor that makes me believe that Denver will change their game plan for today. They will run and push even more the pace tonight! The X factor in which Denver failed miserably in LA was their outside shooting. In the first two games of the series, Gallinari and Afflalo combined to shoot 19 of 55 from the floor! Denver shot 3-13 FG from 16-23 feet and 4-19 3pts in Game 2! With their transition and paint game working well, if Denver is capable of improving a bit on the outside numbers, they should easily score more than 105 points tonight, considering the fast pace this game will have.
On the other hand, the Lakers have the advantage of having had 2 days off to rest for this game, as coach Brown decided to have just a 8-man rotation on this series. The edge in the Lakers frontcourt is incredibly and it won't be stopped in the series, as after having had 20-25 FG at the rim in Game 1, they had 23-37 FG at the rim in Game 2! Kobe is playing great and Denver's defense will have problems in slowing down this offensive combination from the Lakers, who is also playing well in transitions by taking advantage of the wide open games as well.
I believe this game will be a tight game, with late FT's deciding the game and with both teams showing some good offense in a fast paced game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 543/544 Over 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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