NBA - 519 Orlando Magic @ 520 Indiana Pacers
Projected line: Indiana by 15 points
In game 1, the Pacers couldn’t handle the pressure of being the clear favorites against a Howard-less Magic team and they lost the game without scoring a single point in the last 4 minutes of the game. They were nervous and once the Magic turn the game into a ball game, the Pacers lost their composure.
Their players passed the ball several times even thought they were wide open and I don’t think coach Vogel did a good job in terms of game plan and execution. They had a considerable edge in 3 of the 4 factors: less turnovers, more free throws and more rebounds but their shooting performance was horrible and the fact that they shot 13-22 from the line didn’t help them either.
Their size edge is considerable in this series and they were so focused in exploring them that their offense lost their usual “flow”! The Pacers shot 5-16 FG in post up plays and/or shot 11-28FG at the rim – 39% is a terrible mark no matter what your opponent is and with the Magic having Davis and Anderson as their big players it was even more tragic for them. For tonight I expect them to be more patient and not force their offense into post up plays in almost every set play! The Pacers will have once again more free throws than the Magic so a more fluid ball movement and they will be fine tonight.
On the defensive end, the lack of size of the Magic was pretty evident! Roy Hibbert had 9 blocks and the Magic attempted only 18 shots at the rim (10-18FG)! Orlando was (and will be) a perimeter jump shooting team that relies on the pick and roll. Almost 35% of their plays were pick and rolls’ with a not so good 11-31 FG shooting performance on those plays and also 26% of their plays were spot up plays so Orlando showed a pretty predictable offense in game 1.
Because the Pacers’ big players are extremely quick footed, the Pacers can easily control them in the next games like they did in game 1. I have the Pacers as 15 points favorites for a blowout win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 520 Indiana Pacers (-9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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