NBA - 727 Los Angeles Clippers @ 728 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected line: 175 points | Memphis by 3 points
***TOP PLAY***
Besides the Game 1 of this series, where even though the final score says that the game was close, the game was bizarre, with Memphis wasting a huge lead, all the other games have been ball games and I think the same should happen today.
Memphis has been having a lot of problems down the stretch in closing out the games. The fact that Randolph is playing alongside with Conley and Gay made help the team in some aspects, but we are then also talking about a team with an identity problem in understanding who is the closer of the Grizzlies right now.
The key of this series is right now in the frontcourt. We all know that Randolph isn't at 100% right now and that Speights is a terrible defensive player. So, Memphis only has Gasol to defend the opposing frontcourt. On the other side, the Clippers have 4 big bodies: Blake, Jordan, Evans and Martin to battle with the Grizzlies frontcourt. As the series is being physically brutal, I've seen both Randolph and Gasol burned out down the stretch, in the past two games. Also in the last game, Randolph and Gasol combined 15FGA versus 40FGA from Conley and Gay! This isn't the formula for Memphis to be competitive on this series.
Randolph is being guarded and has to guard Blake Griffin and he just doesn’t have the proper cardio to battle in both ends of the floor. He should eventually start the game very strong, but he will also ran out of gas. Note that the good moment of Memphis in the last game's fourth quarter was when Cunningham and Haddadi were on the court and this says it all about the Grizzlies' big men right now. With the Grizzlies frontcourt having problems to produce consistently, MEM perimeter shooters are just too streaky and unreliable! They started last game by hitting 3 treys in the first quarter, but then they just hit only one more for the reminder of the game.
Besides the Game 1 of this series, where even though the final score says that the game was close, the game was bizarre, with Memphis wasting a huge lead, all the other games have been ball games and I think the same should happen today.
Memphis has been having a lot of problems down the stretch in closing out the games. The fact that Randolph is playing alongside with Conley and Gay made help the team in some aspects, but we are then also talking about a team with an identity problem in understanding who is the closer of the Grizzlies right now.
The key of this series is right now in the frontcourt. We all know that Randolph isn't at 100% right now and that Speights is a terrible defensive player. So, Memphis only has Gasol to defend the opposing frontcourt. On the other side, the Clippers have 4 big bodies: Blake, Jordan, Evans and Martin to battle with the Grizzlies frontcourt. As the series is being physically brutal, I've seen both Randolph and Gasol burned out down the stretch, in the past two games. Also in the last game, Randolph and Gasol combined 15FGA versus 40FGA from Conley and Gay! This isn't the formula for Memphis to be competitive on this series.
Randolph is being guarded and has to guard Blake Griffin and he just doesn’t have the proper cardio to battle in both ends of the floor. He should eventually start the game very strong, but he will also ran out of gas. Note that the good moment of Memphis in the last game's fourth quarter was when Cunningham and Haddadi were on the court and this says it all about the Grizzlies' big men right now. With the Grizzlies frontcourt having problems to produce consistently, MEM perimeter shooters are just too streaky and unreliable! They started last game by hitting 3 treys in the first quarter, but then they just hit only one more for the reminder of the game.
Another advantage of the Clippers this series has been their depth on the backcourt. With Bledsoe, Mo Williams and Nick Young, the Clippers have been playing well and allowing CP3 to rest a bit more. Note that while Gay and Conley played 46 and 48 minutes in the last game, CP3 played four less minutes.
Still, I expect some adjustments from Memphis for today. They shouldn't hesitate to foul Evans if he stays on the floor down the stretch and I think that the referees with all the flopping complaints from Blake and CP3 will allow the game to be more physical. This favors a potential grind out game, in a similar way that happened for most of the previous game, where after both teams combining 58 points in the 1st quarter, they combined just 38, 37 and 41 points in the remaining three quarters.
With Memphis struggling a bit physically and with the Clippers having an edge in terms of depth, I believe we are into a close game and so, I'll be taking the Clippers in here. I'll be also taking the Under, as I expect a slow paced and physical game, with both teams struggling in terms of shooting.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 727/728 Under 182,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 727 Los Angeles Clippers (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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