NBA - 511 Indiana Pacers @ 512 Miami Heat
Projected line: 181 points | Miami by 4 points
Indiana lost an excellent opportunity of stealing one game in Miami due to their incapacity in adjusting to the Bosh-less Heat in the second half. One thing was clear in that game: it won't be easy for Miami to score in half court sets against Indiana and even the Pacers' coach Vogel referred that in a timeout, late in the 4th quarter. However, Indiana had to fight foul trouble throughout the whole game. Miami shot 29-38 FT, but more important than that, it was the fact that they got quickly into the Bonus in every single quarter:
1st quarter: 7:16 to go
2nd quarter: 6:14 to go
3rd quarter: 8:10 to go
4th quarter: 4:31 to go
George Hill, Paul George and Roy Hibbert had to sit on the bench due to foul trouble and the Pacers defense was never able to produce at their standards in the second half. This is weird considering that Miami had to play without Bosh during the whole second half. My opinion is that Indiana couldn't be aggressive as they usually are and they ended up allowing the Heat to score 52 points in the paint, with 17-27 FG at the rim! It was so absurd in the second half that Miami had a 18-4 edge in points in the paint despite playing without a dominant big player.
2nd quarter: 6:14 to go
3rd quarter: 8:10 to go
4th quarter: 4:31 to go
George Hill, Paul George and Roy Hibbert had to sit on the bench due to foul trouble and the Pacers defense was never able to produce at their standards in the second half. This is weird considering that Miami had to play without Bosh during the whole second half. My opinion is that Indiana couldn't be aggressive as they usually are and they ended up allowing the Heat to score 52 points in the paint, with 17-27 FG at the rim! It was so absurd in the second half that Miami had a 18-4 edge in points in the paint despite playing without a dominant big player.
Indiana also committed some sloppy turnovers that originated 18 points off turnovers from Miami, who also scored a good number of 18 fast break points. So, I believe the game plan for the Pacers tonight is quite obvious: they will try to explore their size advantage against Miami without Bosh. They will also try to slow down the pace and play with a more conservative style, just to avoid committing turnovers and then punish Miami in the half court, as in fact, the Pacers good first half in Game 1 was the result of the Pacers big men having solid games: West 4-5 FG 12pts, 4-8 FG 10pts and Hansbrough 4-4 FG 8pts! Then, Indiana lost their rhythm down the stretch, but they were competitive nonetheless.
It seems clear that this series won't be easy for Miami. Sure that they have Lebron and Wade, but the Pacers have good wing defenders in Granger, Hill and Jones. These players just took an expected blow in Game 1, as it is completely different playing against a non-aggressive offensive team like Orlando and then having to play against two of the best wing offensive players in the league, so we can expect the Pacers to be even more ready for the fight tonight.
Miami may have the edge down the stretch, but this spread line of 7 points is way too much for them on this contest, as I expect this game to be a slower half court game where Indiana can surely give the Heat a lot of problems. Therefore, I'll take the Pacers tonight. As I expect this game to be played at a slow pace and with the Pacers causing a lot of problems to the Heat offense, I'll be also taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 185,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Indiana Pacers (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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