NBA - 731 Atlanta Hawks @ 732 Boston Celtics
Projected line: Boston by 3 points | 177 Points
Al Horford somehow is looking really good and his presence has changed all the series matchups in which the Hawks have now some edge vs. Boston. I’m not saying that they are better than the Celtics but the fact is that the Celtics have now to work harder to stop Atlanta’s offense.
Isolation plays for the Hawks during the series:
Game 1: 15 plays; 15.3% vol; 6-14 FG
Game 2: 23 plays; 22.1% vol; 4-18 FG
Game 3: 25 plays; 22.3% vol; 5-22 FG
Game 4: 9 plays; 9.1% vol; 4-8 FG
Game 5: 9 plays; 9.2% vol; 2-6 FG
Can you see the difference between games 1, 2 and 3 vs. games 4 and 5 in which Horford played for the Hawks? Less ISO-Joe or Iso-Smith and the Hawks are now less predictable on the offensive. With Jason Collins on the floor, nobody in the Celtics side was taking attention to him and it was basically 4 vs. 5 but now with Horford, the Celtics have to change their approach. Also Joe Johnson returned to the SG position and he created some tough matchups vs. Bradley or Ray Allen due to his strength and size.
This series have been extremely well balanced and the “Horford factor” gives Atlanta some edge. There are several players hobbled but no one is feeling more the pain than Paul Pierce. After attempting 30 free throws in the first three games of this series, Pierce had exactly ONE free throw in the last two games! I expect this contest to be a tight game…
Isolation plays for the Hawks during the series:
Game 1: 15 plays; 15.3% vol; 6-14 FG
Game 2: 23 plays; 22.1% vol; 4-18 FG
Game 3: 25 plays; 22.3% vol; 5-22 FG
Game 4: 9 plays; 9.1% vol; 4-8 FG
Game 5: 9 plays; 9.2% vol; 2-6 FG
Can you see the difference between games 1, 2 and 3 vs. games 4 and 5 in which Horford played for the Hawks? Less ISO-Joe or Iso-Smith and the Hawks are now less predictable on the offensive. With Jason Collins on the floor, nobody in the Celtics side was taking attention to him and it was basically 4 vs. 5 but now with Horford, the Celtics have to change their approach. Also Joe Johnson returned to the SG position and he created some tough matchups vs. Bradley or Ray Allen due to his strength and size.
This series have been extremely well balanced and the “Horford factor” gives Atlanta some edge. There are several players hobbled but no one is feeling more the pain than Paul Pierce. After attempting 30 free throws in the first three games of this series, Pierce had exactly ONE free throw in the last two games! I expect this contest to be a tight game…
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 731 Atlanta Hawks (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 731/732 Over 174 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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