NBA Premium Play 05/08: Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 715 Orlando Magic @ 716 Indiana Pacers

Projected line: 190 Points | Indiana by 7 Points

***TOP PLAY***

For the first time in this series I think that coach Stan Van Gundy made the right adjustments for game 4 and the Magic almost won the game against the Pacers. I didn’t understand why the Magic “wanted” to play always in the half court against the superior sized Pacers’ frontcourt with a heavy dose of pick n rolls and nothing more to show.

Obviously the offensive outcome was disastrous in the first 3 games as the Pacers had a remarkable mark of 22 blocks and the Magic as a team shot 30-56 FG at the rim – just 53% from the field. They didn’t any kind of early offense and the Pacers easily dismantled them in every game of this series… that changed last game as Van Gundy finally made some adjustments to give his players some better looks. Note that still Orlando scored 89 points in the regulation but they generated way more good looks than the 3 previous games combined!

What changed?

Orlando pushed the ball more and they wanted to attack early on the shot clock! When the Magic was in an offensive drought in the 2^nd quarter I saw Van Gundy during one timeout break yelling to his players to run more and the Magic scored 19 points in 7:47 after having scored just 4 points in 4:13 in the second quarter!

Transition plays for ORL during this series:

Game 1: 8
Game 2: 6
Game 3: 2
Game 4: 11

Assists for ORL during this series:

Game 1: 18
Game 2: 16
Game 3: 14
Game 4: 24 (3 in OT)

This “new look” offensive game from the Magic was able to shot 20-32 FG at the rim in game 4 when they were held to 10-18FG, 12-22FG and 8-16FG in the first 3 games! My statement that the Magic generated more “good shots” in game 4 than the first 3 games of the series as you can see is easily supported by those stats!

Hedo Turkoglu looked fine in the last game and Van Gundy made the decision down the stretch to go with a smaller lineup: playing Hedo Turkoglu at power forward, Davis at center and with Richardson, Redick and Nelson on the perimeter - this lineup scored 26 points in 11 minutes, shooting 11-of-22 from the field with seven assists and no turnovers.

We can count on this lineup to be on the floor tonight for sure, it was the best Magic offensive moment in the series and Van Gundy knows that. Naturally the Magic will be abused down low by David West and Hibbert but this has been the norm all series long no matter if Earl Clark is the center or Turkoglu is the power forward.

On the other end, Indiana shot 18-22 FG at the rim and 5-10 FG from 3-9 feet while both West and Hibbert dominated the paint. The Pacers’ problem was on the perimeter where Hill, George and Granger combined to shoot 13-37 FG. For tonight I expect the Pacers to have a better game from the outside because they missed a lot of good looks last game! Orlando is forced to double team either West or Hibbert and so the Pacers perimeter players have always some space to operate.

The total line for this contest is 179 points but it does not take in account the Magic’ new offensive mindset for tonight’s game and that’s why I’m taking the Over in here as my Top Play and the Magic as a Single Dime Play as I believe that they will surprise the Pacers tonight and be competitive.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 179.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on BookmakerPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715 Orlando Magic (+10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker