NBA - 517 Miami Heat @ 518 Indiana Pacers
Projected line: Miami by 8 points
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
So now that Chris Bosh is out with injury, Lebron "choked" again down the stretch and even Wade missed his 4 final FG attempts in the Game 2, are the Heat done? Not so fast!
The truth is that Game 2 was a hard fought game where Miami's defense didn't feel the absence of Bosh. Even by using Lebron in the PF position the majority of the time while Haslem/Anthony/Turiaf rotated in the center position, the Heat were great on defense, especially in the 1st half. Miami held the Pacers to 31.7% FG and forced 10 turnovers, as Indiana scored just 33 1st half points. They completely shutdown the Pacers' perimeter, who shot 3-15 3pts and 2-17 FG in spot up plays!
The real issue that Miami had in Game 2 was with Indiana's two big men Roy Hibbert and David West. These two players helped the Pacers to have the edge in rebounding (54% of the boards), when in Game 1 they had been outrebounded by the Heat (Indiana only grabbed 44% of the boards). Hibbert was an important factor when Miami decided to go small and that's why despite having just 8 points, Hibbert was so important for Indiana. On the other hand, West was important as always to the team, as he was the team's leading scorer with 16 points.
So, what will be the problem for Indiana in Game 3?
Well, Coach Vogel was forced to use both Hibbert and West way too much in Game 2. Note that his two backups Hansbrough and Amundson played only 5 and 7 minutes! For Hibbert, playing 33 minutes in a high intensity game can be problematic for a player who averaged less than 30 minutes per game during the regular season. In fact, until now his Playoff highest mark in minutes was 34 minutes against Orlando in Game 1, with him struggling in Game 2 by shooting 2-5 FG and scoring just 4 points against an undersized Orlando frontline. The same can be said about West. Until now, he played +40 minutes in two games and in the following next he struggled by not only grabbing 8 rebounds in each game (Playoff low), as he shot just 2-9 FG in the Game 3 against Orlando! With Miami playing with their usual stellar perimeter defense, if these two Indiana players have subpar performances, then the Pacers will really struggle on the offensive end, while they won't dominate the glass like they did in Game 2.
On the other side, Miami's offense really needs Bosh in order to be an elite team. However, I believe they have some margin of improvement from the first two games. First of all, it won't be hard to improve their 1-22 3pts mark in the first two games of the series. But the X factor will really be in Miami's stellar perimeter defense. Their defense was able to force 20 turnovers to Indiana, but that the Heat couldn't convert, as they had just 6 fast break points in 14 transition plays, with a poor 2-9 FG mark.
Also with coach Vogel deciding that Leandro Barbosa should be the Pacers' sixth man in this series, as he played 25 minutes in Game 2. Barbosa may be a good offensive player, however he has no court vision and he is a clear liability on defense that Miami will surely explore that in Game 3.
With all of these, I expect an easy win from Miami on this game, taking advantage of all the physical effort that Indiana's big men had in the previous game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Heat on the Moneyline today in a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 517 Miami Heat ML @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes
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