NBA - 525 Chicago Bulls @ 526 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected line: 172 points
In Game 1, Philadelphia showed that they will have a lot of problems in scoring in half court against Chicago, with or without Rose. They had an offensive rate of 99, something I expected, but what I wasn't expecting was they to shoot 24-31 FT! The Sixers shot 39% FG and Chicago's frontcourt simply didn't allow the Sixers to score easy points near the basket, as they shot 16-30 FG and 1-5 FG from 3-9 feet. In the 1st half, Philadelphia scored 42 points with 6 FT, while in the second half they scored 49 points with 24 FT! The only reason why Philadelphia had some success on offense was due to their transitions, as Chicago committed 18 turnovers, with Rose committing 5, that Philadelphia took advantage to score 19 points off them!
With Rose's absence, the series won't change very much in terms of its style. In fact, I believe Philadelphia will struggle on offense even more, as without Rose, Chicago has the tendency to play at a slower pace and to be more conservative and less prone to commit turnovers, with Philadelphia having less chances to score in transition. In the three games in the regular season between these two teams, the pace of the games were 87.1, 89.5 and 85.5! Obviously that game where Rose didn't play had the slowest pace out of the three games. The pace of Game 1 was 92.3, way too high for this kind of series and today, I expect a slower pace without Rose.
In the matchup between Chicago's offense and Philadelphia's defense, it was scary how huge the edge in favor of the Bulls was. Coach Collins inserted Meeks defending Rip and that didn't work at all, with that being the reason why Meeks played just 11 minutes and it looks like it won't be a starter in today's game. Philadelphia wasn't expecting Rose to be so explosive and they just couldn't focus on anything, with that being the reason why five players from the Bulls scored double digits points and the team dished a total of 28 assists! Chicago was excellent on cuts and offscreens with 5-6 FG and 7-11 FG, as their perimeter offense was extremely aggressive. The problem is that Rose is now gone and Watson/Lucas lack the same power, as they are more P&R's players and Philadelphia is a Top 3 defensive team on this kind of play. Therefore, I expect Chicago to struggle on offense for the rest of the series as well.
Looking at all of this, I believe coach Thibs will try to lower the pace and try to win the series through their edge in the frontcourt plus with their defense and with their rebound edge. I expect a low scoring game for this game and so, I'll take the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 525/526 Under 176 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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