NBA - 515 Los Angeles Lakers @ 516 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected line: Oklahoma City by 15 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Game 1 of this series was a completely one sided game with Oklahoma City easily winning it. For today, we had 1 day off for these two teams to make some adjustments and naturally that the Lakers will try to adjust on the defensive end, something that won't be enough in my opinion to stop the Thunder once again.
I've read some reports that say that the Lakers will try to make a better job defending Oklahoma City's Pick n Roll plays and even that Kobe will defend Westbrook since the start. In fact, 27% of the plays that Oklahoma City used in Game 1 were Pick n Roll ball handler plays and they performed well by shooting 9-22 FG on these plays with a nice mark of 1.00PPP. Their guards penetrated at will and then they made the right decision in shooting or passing the ball to the open man. This won't dramatically change for tonight's game or even throughout the whole series because both Bynum and Gasol won't suddenly stop being slow footed centers. Watching Bynum trying to close the gap in the roll man was almost comical and a bizarre exercise. This is the biggest weakness of the Lakers defense and that would be completely explored by the Thunder, as in all the four previous games between the two teams, Oklahoma City had always a DD points lead over the Lakers!
I said in my Game 1 write up that unlike Denver, the Thunder are a terrific outside shooting team and they proved that by shooting 9-15 FG from 10-15 feet, 7-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-17 3pts! Sure that they won't shoot like that tonight, but they won't certainly repeat those 3-19 3pts numbers that the Nuggets were doing against the Lakers in the previous round as well. Kobe decided to defend Westbrook in the second half of the Game 1 and the result of that was the Thunder starting the half with 7-7 FG! Kobe was never a good roll screener defender and it's silly for him and for coach Brown to think that he can match Westbrook's speed! He will burn out quickly and in this scenario, the "bad Kobe" forcing bad shots will most likely happen tonight. It would be a wise decision if Westbrook would have to defend Bryant as well, as the two players would spend a tough time on the defensive end, however Westbrook won't need to defend him, as Sefolosha is a defensive specialist and his solo role on the team is to defend Kobe on this series, with him being pretty good at it. So, it's clear to me that this decision about Kobe's new defensive assignment will hurt more the Lakers than Oklahoma City!
Perkins is questionable for tonight, as he is a gametime decision, but his presence or absence won't actually mean a lot to this game. Bynum had some success on offense during Game 1, even with him being defended straight up by Perkins. Bynum had 7-12 FG, 6-6 FT, 20pts and 14reb, with 4 offensive boards and 5-5 FG at the rim. So, it's clear that Bynum can have a "big game" that Oklahoma City will still be more than fine.
Even with the recent adjustments, I don't think that the Lakers will be capable of coming even near the score of Oklahoma City on this game. There are two clear great teams in the West and the Lakers aren't simply one of them. I expect another blowout from the Thunder today and so, I'll take them in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 516 Oklahoma City Thunder (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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