NBA - 533 Philadelphia 76ers @ 534 Boston Celtics
Projected line: Boston by 12 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
After the incredible effort from Boston in Game 3, it would be inevitable that a physical letdown would happen to them in Game 4, with just 1 day off to rest between games. Either coach Rivers would save some minutes to the starters but with that he would see his team getting outplayed by the Sixers 2nd unit or sooner or later, Boston would have no legs to hang with Philadelphia. What happened in Game 4 was exactly that with epic proportions, as Boston had a huge lead until the 3rd quarter, as they started the game with a lot of intensiveness in both ends of the floor and so, they quickly gained a double digits points lead. But after that, the team started to lose intensiveness until losing the game.
Still, it was clear that the best Celtics completely stop the Sixers half court offense. Philadelphia just couldn't score in the half court against Boston! Looking at the Mysynergy numbers, we can see that Philadelphia had 3-11 FG in P&R ball handler, 3-7 FG in P&R roll man, 1-3 FG in post up plays, 4-10 FG in spot up plays and 3-1 FG in cuts! Philadelphia was just able to score consistently from two ways: via transition and via free throws! Boston committed 17 turnovers that resulted in 15 points from the Sixers. Garnett was brilliant in Game 3, but he had a letdown in Game 4 and committed 7 turnovers on his own. The Sixers scored 27 fast break points, with great efficiency with 8-13 FG in transition. With the progressive physical inability from the Celtics, Philadelphia squashed the boards with a 17-5 edge in offensive boards or an 34.0 vs 12.5 edge in offensive rebound rates, besides being very aggressive with 36 FGA against 19 from Boston. With this difference of effort between two teams, the fact that the Sixers 2nd unit for the first time in this playoffs had a great game only made the physical edge bigger. The Sixers bench scored 44 points, with 46.8% FG, 24 rebounds and 6 steals!
So what changes for today's game?
First of all, the teams had 2 days off to rest! It has been clear in this series that when the Celtics are able to match the Sixers energy, Philadelphia doesn't have a chance in the offensive end and with 2 days off to rest for this contest, I expect Boston to have fresh legs. Of course the Sixers will also have fresh legs, but the physical edge won't be as big for Philadelphia as it was in the previous four games of the series. But this game is decisive, the Celtics have a good spot and with them being the best team, I expect Boston to easily win this game. Therefore, I'm taking the Celtics in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 534 Boston Celtics (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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