Projected line: 187 points | Denver by 9 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Mike Brown gave it all for the Lakers to win the Game 5 and avoid this series to be a long one, as the bigger the series gets, the bigger the physical edge gets in favor of the Nuggets. So, Kobe and Pau played the entire 4th quarter and Kobe actually played the whole 2nd half, with 4 of the 5 starters playing more than 36 minutes (Kobe played the most with 43 minutes!). With games at 4, 6, 8 and now 10, the Lakers have been riding their starters in heavy minutes. In Game 3, four of their starters (Sessions-Kobe-Pau-Bynum) played at least 38 minutes. In Game 4, these four players were on court at least 35 minutes and in Game 5 at least 36 minutes! Having in account the pace that Denver puts on their games, this physical handicap is getting bigger and I've noticed in 2nd half and especially in the 4th quarter that Bynum couldn't defend anymore, with McGee outplaying him, while Bynum couldn't provide any kind of help defense to his team mates!
After the evident edge favoring the Lakers down low in the first games, Denver has been successful in limiting the Lakers frontcourt, as in the last two games, the Lakers shot just 18-31 FG and 13-27 FG at the rim - just 53% - while in the first 3 games of the series, the Lakers had shot 80%, 62% and 72% in this area. Besides the Nuggets being more aggressive and using more traps, the Lakers offense has been losing efficiency from the outside, with both Sessions and Blake hesitating on the decision of taking the shot or not, in a clear sign of lack of confidence, with that allowing Denver to defend better the Lakers frontcourt, with them having a series low in the last game of post up plays with just 12, with just 11% volume and just 3-7 FG!
On the other hand, Denver took advantage of the lack of legs and also effort from the Lakers transition defense to score 19 fast break points, while also having 1.21 PPP and 10-15 FG! They shot also 9-19 FG on ISO plays and I don't believe they will be so efficient today due to the defensive adjustments from LA. Denver surprised with the double Miller-McGee, with both dominating the team's offense. Lawson, who had been a key player for the Nuggets success, played just 29 minutes, which shows that Denver didn't need his best basketball. The good part of that is now that Lawson will be fresh to pound the tired Lakers!
Denver continues to struggle on the 3pts shooting, with just 20-87 3pts 23% in the series and 6-38 3pts in the last 2 games and this is a norm for them. However, they are focused in pounding the bad interior defense from Bynum and they have been managing a high volume of shots at the rim. With McGee appearing in great form, coach Karl doesn't need to use ultra small lineups with Al Harrington in the center position anymore, something great for the Nuggets defense. Mike Brown has also noted the Lakers' poor protection of the paint in the last games of the series:
“I thought (Denver) came out, they hit first and they continued to hit throughout the course of game,” said Mike Brown. “I thought they were more physical than us … our paint protection on the defense end of the floor is not good right now.”
I expect the Lakers to be more focused in stopping the Nuggets' transition offense and with Denver struggling from the outside and with the Lakers adjusting their defense, I expect Denver to have more problems on offense than they had in the last games. The good part is that the Lakers will also struggle on offense, as they might have a good run somewhere in the game, but they will lack the legs to deliver a full 48 minutes of good offensive basketball. Looking at the struggles that both teams will have on offense, I will take the Under in here in a Double Dime Play. As I expect the Lakers to struggle physically in comparison with Denver, I will also take the Nuggets in here in a Regular Single Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 735/736 Under 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 736 Denver Nuggets (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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