Play #1
Tennessee is coming from an important road win at Oakland last week, but that was achieved while having a negative overall DVOA in that game, so their performance wasn't that good. In fact, they had also recently defeated St Louis on the road, while having a negative DVOA as well, so the Titans are winning but not playing great football in the process. Tennessee is a run oriented team, especially since they lost QB Jake Locker for the season. This is their pass/rush split since their bye week back in week 8:
Pass% Rush%
0.39 0.61
0.61 0.39
0.54 0.46
0.59 0.41
They only had one game with more than 60% of pass plays and that was against Jacksonville, in a game where they were down in the score and so, needed to take more risks. However, it's important to mention that they showed a decent pass offense over their last two games. On the other hand, the Titans' defense is average. Tennessee will now face an Indianapolis team on an important divisional game for both teams. The Colts are also run oriented and they like to run the football a lot, unless they get down big early in the game and then, they have to throw the gameplan in the trash and throw the football a lot, like it happened with 79% pass plays against St Louis and 72% pass plays at Arizona last week.
On the first game played between these two teams earlier in the season, Indianapolis won at Tennessee by 30-27. It was a game where both teams surprisingly showed a great running game, with the Titans having their second best game of the season regarding rush DVOA with +30.2%, while Indianapolis had their best running game of the season with +38.9% DVOA! However, I don't expect that to happen today, where both teams will indeed use their conservative playbook by calling a lot of running plays, but without having the efficiency that they had on the game played at Tennessee. Therefore, I believe this will be a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 425/426 Under 46 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NFL Week 13 - 429 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 430 Cleveland Browns
Play #2
As Jason Campbell is still sidelined, Brandon Weeden who was already twice-demoted this season will get back into the starting QB for Cleveland this week. This doesn't sound good for the Browns' offense this week, something that is a shame given how well Cleveland is actually defending this season.
“Would I like more wins?” Cleveland's defensive coordinator Ray Horton said. “Yes. Where are we at as a defense? We are the No. 4 defense in the league. We’re probably sixth in pass and No. 8 in rush. We’re six sacks away from the lead in sacks, we’re No. 1 in yards per play, we’re No. 1 in pass yards per play, we’re No. 2 in rush yards per play. Everything that we want to do statistically, we are there. Would we like more wins? Yes. But to get where you want to be you have to be a good rush defense, a good sack defense, a good pass defense. And the numbers say that we are. Since the second half of the Kansas City game we are the No. 1 team in third-down defense. We [would] probably be 14th in red zone defense since that halfway point against Kansas City."
Everything Horton mentioned is true. Cleveland is indeed a great defensive team and I have little doubts that they will do a good job in here against Jacksonville's poor offense. The Jaguars are coming from a surprising road win at Houston, where they still had a negative overall DVOA! Their offense continues to struggle with -54.3%, -23.2% and -21.1% over their last three games and I believe that they won't stand a chance against the Browns' elite defense. On the other side, Jacksonville's defense has been improving a lot lately, with -3.8%, +18.5% and -26.7% on their last three games. Now against the struggling Brandon Weeden and the unimpressive Browns' running game, I believe the Jaguars' defense will do a good job today. With both teams definitely playing much better defense than offense in here, I believe this will be a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 429/430 Under 40 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 13 - 439 Atlanta Falcons @ 440 Buffalo Bills
Play #3
Both teams are coming rested for this game, with Buffalo coming from a bye week, while Atlanta played a Thursday night game against New Orleans. The Falcons' offense is very predictable, as they only throw the football. However, they will have in Buffalo a tough opponent, as the Bills are #4 in the league on pass defense DVOA with -12.8%! The Bills had four great pass defense performances over their last five games, with their only poor performance coming against the Saints' elite passing game.
On the other hand, the Falcons' defense is possible the worst in the league this season and I believe that even E.J. Manuel will have a decent game against them. However, it's on the running game where I believe that Buffalo's offense will have a nice edge today. The Bills struggled on their running game over their last two games, but their last game was against the Jets, the team that has clearly the best run defense in the league this season. The other game was at Pittsburgh, a team that has been improving on their run defense as the season goes by plus Buffalo got down big early in the game and kinda abandoned their running game mid-game. Things will be different today and so, I believe Buffalo will get a clear upperhand on this game played in Toronto. I'm taking the Bills today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 440 Buffalo Bills (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 13 - 447 New York Giants @ 448 Washington Redskins
Play #4
Even though the Giants actually won four games in a row recently, the truth is that their run was quite overrated, as they faced a bunch of weak teams that were also without their starting QB. Once they faced a semi-decent team like Dallas last week with the #1 QB on the field, they got exposed and lost the game. The truth is that the Giants' offense continues to struggle with -29.1%, +1.5%, -14.2%, -13.7% and +8.3% offense DVOA on their last five games. These struggles against Minnesota, Philadelphia, Oakland, Green Bay and Dallas are worrying and none of these five teams is even close from being an elite pass defensive team. Therefore, I don't expect the Giants' offense to be able to take advantage of Washington's defensive struggles in here.
On the other hand, Washington's offense was shutdown against San Francisco at home last Monday night. They were actually coming from a nice streak of decent offensive performances in a row, but the 49ers are from another level and shut them down. However, and even though RGIII is indeed struggling this season, Washington is still #1 in the league on rushing yards per carry with 5.0 Y/C and they should have a nice offensive game against a Giants' defense that will be missing Jason Pierre-Paul tonight. The Giants' DL is also dead last on putting pressure on the opposing QB with an adjusted sack rate of 5.0% and so, I believe Washington will produce enough offense in here to pick up a nice win tonight on National TV. I'm taking the Redskins tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 448 Washington Redskins (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 13 - 441 St Louis Rams @ 442 San Francisco 49ers
NFL Week 13 - 443 New England Patriots @ 444 Houston Texans
Play #5
***2-TEAM 6PTS TEASER***
The Rams are coming from a nice home win against Chicago, where they had a massive performance on the running game. However, the 49ers' run defense will be a much tougher opponent than Chicago's DL plus RB Zac Stacy is banged up and I really believe that St Louis won't do a lot on their running game today. On the other hand, QB Kellen Clemens is very limited and he won't cause a lot of issues to San Francisco. On the other side, I believe San Francisco will produce enough offense against a decent but far from elite Rams defense to get an important win in here to continue their hunt for a playoff spot. WR Michael Crabtree is probable to make his season debut and he will be another weapon for the 49ers offense today.
I understand that this is an important game for Houston, perhaps their only important game for them until the end of the season. However, with rookie QB Case Keenum under center, with RB Arian Foster out for the season and with important defenders like LB Brian Cushing out for the season as well, I don't see how the Texans will be able to match New England's strength in both ends of the floor. The Patriots have too many offensive options for Houston to completely shut them down, while the Texans' offense is currently quite weak and very predictable, so with extra attention on RB Ben Tate and with CB Aqib Talib defending WR Andre Johnson, I don't see how the Patriots will lose this game. Houston with a big defensive effort might make it closer than the lines are suggesting, but down the stretch the difference between having Tom Brady or Case Keenum under center will make the difference.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 442 San Francisco 49ers (-1) x 443 New England Patriots (-1) @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline
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