Tuesday, December 3, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 12/03: Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers

  
Orlando  at Philadelphia 
NBA - 501 Orlando Magic @ 502 Philadelphia 76ers

Plays #1 & 2


Orlando had a complete no show yesterday at Washington, who once again struggled with their second unit. Glen Davis was completely inefficient, while Nikola Vucevic got injured mid-game. Orlando struggled with the ball handling with 18 turnovers and Jameer Nelson's absence was a considerable blow for them on this area, as Victor Oladipo played at their primary PG and they struggled.

These two teams faced each other recently and I took Philadelphia in that game, as Orlando was in a bad spot and Philadelphia would have a clear backcourt edge with Michael Carter-Williams over Jameer Nelson. However, that game was marked with the huge mismatch that Orlando had on frontcourt against a Sixers defense that really missed Spencer Hawes. Orlando had 52 points in the paint, with Glen Davis, Nikola Vucevic and Andrew Nicholson shooting a combined of 24-35 (68%) FG and grabbing 26 rebounds. However, Vucevic is likely out for tonight, while Hawes will play, so Orlando won't have the same frontcourt edge tonight.

Philadelphia is coming from two games where they got crushed by New Orleans and Detroit, where they allowed 121 and 115 points. These two teams are elite transition teams and they exposed the Sixers with 25 and 20 fast break points. While the Pelicans and the Pistons are ranked #4 and #3 respectively on volume in transition plays, Orlando is just #22 in the league on this area, so Philadelphia's defense will have a better matchup today to make a defensive bounce back. With the Sixers being focused to make a defensive bounce back tonight and with Orlando's frontcourt missing Vucevic deeply, I believe this won't be the typical wild game involving the Sixers and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. As I expect Philadelphia to have a good matchup and spot to get revenge over Orlando, I'll be also taking the Sixers in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 206.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Philadelphia 76ers (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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