NBA - 803 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 804 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #1
Oklahoma City is coming from an easy win in NY against the Knicks on Christmas Day. Carmelo Anthony's absence helped the Thunder in crushing the Knicks, but even if Melo had played, Oklahoma City would eventually still easily win that game due to the Knicks' poor perimeter that would be heavily explored by the Thunder's athleticism. On the other side, Charlotte is coming from a tough home win against the lowly Bucks, something that isn't a good sign. The Bobcats' offense was efficient with Kemba Walker shooting 10-22 FG and Al Jefferson 12-23 FG, but note that Charlotte shot just 43.4% FG, while they shot 10-17 3pts! This is something extremely rare for Charlotte, a team that has been struggling on their outside shooting all season long. On defense, the Bobcats struggled, with a very lazy transition defense that allowed Milwaukee to shoot 10-17 FG (1.14 PPP) on transitions, while scoring 14 fast break points. Therefore, after the game, their coach Steve Clifford wasn't happy with this at all:
All the way back to the summer, the Bobcats coach Steve Clifford called transition defense his “non-negotiable.” So after a break for Christmas, Clifford put getting back on defense atop his team’s “to-do” list at practice.
“We worked on it today – just getting our defense organized.” Steve Clifford said Thursday. “When we’ve gotten back, for the most part, our defense has been good. The other night we did a poor job of that. So today we watched film, worked on it, and hopefully it will get better.”
Charlotte's offense will definitely have problems tonight. They need big games from Kemba Walker on the pick and rolls and Al Jefferson on the post ups to be efficient, but Oklahoma City is #4 on pick and roll ball handler defense, while they also have a good rim defense, so Charlotte would need another miraculous great outside shooting performance tonight, something close to impossible to happen twice in a row for such a poor team on this area. On the other side, the Bobcats will be definitely more focused on their transition defense tonight. It keeps being very hard to score points down low against them, as they are allowing less than 60% FG at the rim this season. Therefore, the Thunder will also need to have a sharp outside shooting game tonight to have a big offensive performance in here, something tough to do, especially as they are without Russell Westbrook once again. I expect a relatively low scoring contest in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 801 Detroit Pistons @ 802 Orlando Magic
Plays #2 & 5
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
***ADDED PLAY***
All of Detroit's last 10 games went over, but this match up will be very tough for their offense. Orlando's defensive scheme is build to protect the basket, while giving space on the perimeter because of that. Note that Orlando is #4 in the league on points in the paint allowed with 37.2 points allowed, while they are allowing their opponents to shoot worse than 60% FG at the rim this season. They are also being a good defensive rebounding team, as they are #4 in the league with just a 23.6% opponent offensive rebound rate. On the other hand, the Magic are currently #1 on post up defense in the league right now with just 0.69 PPP allowed! Orlando lost all their last three games, but they had good numbers in protecting the rim in those games against Utah, Sacramento and the NY Knicks, with just 24, 34 and 26 points in the paint allowed. The problem was their inability in defending the perimeter, as they allowed 8-21, 12-23 and 10-21 3pts in those three games.
Fortunately for Orlando, Detroit's offense is one-dimensional, as they need to score near the basket badly with Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith. They are averaging 54.8 points in the paint over their last 10 games, but I expect them to struggle tonight against Orlando's good interior defense. On the other side, Orlando's offense will also have some problems tonight, especially with Nikola Vucevic being defended by Andre Drummond. Detroit's perimeter defense is the weakest link of their defense, but Orlando is currently struggling right now on their long range shooting with a combined of 59-167 (35%) 3pts on their last 8 games.The Magic are also struggling a bit on their ball movement, with just 17.8 assists per game on their last 10 contests. I expect this game to be a low scoring one, as both teams will definitely struggle on offense tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Triple Dime Play! Considering all the issues that Detroit's offense will have tonight, I also see some value on Orlando as home underdogs tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here as well on a Single Dime Play.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Orlando Magic (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 809 Washington Wizards @ 810 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #3
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
I've been saying that the Wizards are a contender for the #3/#4 seed on the East this season, if they keep themselves healthy, as their offense is indeed pretty well. Now that the Wizards are close to being at 100% with Bradley Beal and Nene Hilario back, the Wizards's offense is now dominating with 102, 113 and 106 points scored on their last three games. They are scoring in transition on a very effective way with 1.3, 1.5, 1.5 and 1.5 PPP in transition plays on their last four games. They are also a dangerous team from the outside, as they create a ton of open shots due to the improved play making ability of John Wall. Nene Hilario also keeps dominating down low, while giving his team a great scoring punch in the interior as well.
Washington will play at Minnesota tonight against a Wolves team that has been struggling on defense lately. Minnesota has been unable to stop their opponents from easily scoring down low by allowing almost 49 points in the paint per game over their last 9 games, while their transition defense against teams that push the pace has been subpar as well: they allowed 24 fast break points against Philadelphia, 22 against San Antonio, 19 against the LA Lakers and 16 against the Clippers. Therefore, this will be an excellent spot for Washington's offense tonight!
On the other side, Minnesota will also have some edges on offense. The Wizards don't have a good interior defense, as Nene Hilario and Marcin Gortat are very far from forming a tough duo regarding rim defense and so, I expect both Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic to easily score some easy points down low. On the first game played between these two teams this season, the game ended with just 204 points scored, but that was due to a 23-19 4th quarter score, as the game was on track to go easily Over on the first three quarters. I don't expect this to happen once again tonight and so, I believe this will be a super high scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 809/810 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 815 Miami Heat @ 816 Sacramento Kings
Play #4
Miami managed their lead at LA against the Lakers on Christmas Day without much trouble. Dwyane Wade was the most used player from the Heat with 39 minutes, while Lebron James played 36 minutes and Chris Bosh 31 minutes. The Heat will play an important game tomorrow at Portland, so considering how easily they crushed Sacramento by 122-103 at home a week ago, I believe this is a clear look ahead spot for Miami tonight.
On that game played last Friday, Miami allowed the Kings to shoot 58.1% FG! Weirdly, Sacramento didn't win the boards battle, but the truth is that with both teams shooting close to 60% FG, it was hard for any team to grab a lot of offensive rebounds. Chris Anderson was one of the key players on that game, as even though he played just 21 minutes, he helped his team in preventing the Kings from dominating the boards in that game. Anderson is out for tonight's game and so, Sacramento has definitely a good spot to crush the boards tonight and get some extra possessions to make this game close.
Sacramento is coming from a home loss against the Pelicans, where they were terrible spot on pick and roll ball handler, spot up and transition defense. It appears that their coach Mike Malone laid a smackdown on the players after the game and the truth is that since the Rudy Gay trade, Sacramento had barely time to practice, as they were in the middle of a road trip. They had finally 3 days off to rest and regroup before tonight's game and so, I expect the Kings to have a decent bounce back on defense in here. With the Kings being better on defense, getting the upper hand on the rebounds and with Miami on a look ahead game, while not using Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen and Chris Anderson, I see good value in taking Sacramento tonight. So, I'm taking the Kings plus the points in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 816 Sacramento Kings (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 805 Milwaukee Bucks @ 806 Brooklyn Nets
Play #6
Brooklyn are screwed without Brook Lopez in both ends of the floor. They can't generate easy looks down low with just 32.5 points scored in the paint on their last 7 games, while their outside shooting is just too streaky. They had two monster games regarding outside shooting against Philadelphia in both occasions, but they shot just 6-26 and 5-17 3pts on their last two games. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are struggling, the team has no transition game and so, their offense is super stagnant right now.
On the other side, Milwaukee is becoming more and more competitive. In fact, three of their last four games went to overtime! They are showing better offense, with more consistent rotations, something that is allowing them to commit less turnovers per game. I believe Milwaukee will be a tough match up for Brooklyn's defense. The Bucks has been led by Brandon Knight's solid play and so, Deron Williams will have to work on defense on this match up tonight. Milwaukee has some good shooters like O.J. Mayo and Caron Butler and the return of Ersan Ilyasova will also give them some extra outside shooting, an area where Brooklyn's defense struggles.
One of Milwaukee's main problems this season has been their awful defensive rebounding. Larry Sanders's return tonight will give them some help, even though he will play just 20 minutes. Another fact that will help them in here is the fact that Brooklyn is just #25 on offensive rebounding with a 23.3% offensive rebound rate, so the Bucks' poor defensive rebounding won't be explored in here. The Nets won at Milwaukee by 90-82 on the last game between these two teams, but that was due to Brook Lopez, who dominated with 11-13 FG, 10-11 FT and 32 points in 40 minutes! Without him, I expect the Nets to struggle and so, I'll be taking Milwaukee in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Milwaukee Bucks (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 817 Phoenix Suns @ 818 Golden State Warriors
Play #7
Golden State is coming from a very tough win against the Clippers on Christmas Day, on a great statement win for them and perhaps one of their best games this season. They had a great A/TO ratio with 27 assists and 13 turnovers, a clear improvement over the 26/24, 19/18 and 17/15 ratio that they had shown on their three previous games. Golden State scored 52 points in the paint and so, they stopped being that almost exclusive jump shooting team to also be able to make some serious damage down low! In fact, 46% of their shots came from 9 feet or closer from the basket! On the other hand, the Warriors' defense showed more problems that they had showed on their previous games, but they still did a solid job down the stretch, while limiting the Clippers' outside shooting to just 4-18 3pts! On the other side, Phoenix crushed the Lakers at home on their last game, on a game where I took them at -7.5. The Suns' win was just too easy given the way they play on offense and especially considering the Lakers' lack of depth on the back court, while having to guard both Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic.
About a week and a half ago, Phoenix defeated Golden State at home by 106-102. First of all, Andre Iguodala didn't play that game and the Warriors are a much better team with him on the floor. The Warriors clearly won the boards battle with 55%, but committed 20 turnovers, while having just 12 assists. The horrible ball movement was the key for Golden State's loss in that game. They showed a much better ball movement against the Clippers on their last game and I believe that they will continue showing that tonight. Also with Andre Iguodala back, Golden State's phenomenal transition defense will limit Phoenix's offense a lot on tonight's game. Therefore, I expect the Warriors to get revenge over their loss at Phoenix last week and get a comfortable win tonight. I'm taking Golden State in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 818 Golden State Warriors (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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