NBA Free Premium Play 12/25: Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers

Miami  at LA Lakers

NBA - 805 Miami Heat @ 806 Los Angeles Lakers Play #2 My fair line for this contest is 203/204 points so IMO we are getting some decent value w/ the Under and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. I expect the Lakers offense to struggle (once again) in this matchup. Their offense is predicated on Pick n Rolls in multiple ways. In the last 3 games, their volume% of P&R ball handler plays was more than 20% in average – pretty high number for any team in the league! The problem is that I have bad news for them, because the Heat is the BEST DEFENSIVE TEAM in the league defending P&R BH plays allowing just 0.57 PPP! MIA’s great ball pressure defense is a tough matchup for a shorthanded Lakers team that tends to commit TO’s against aggressive defensive teams. I know that Jordan Farmar is back today and he will give some decent play @PG position, but still he won’t perform any miracle for his team. Eventually, Pau Gasol has a good spot to perform well tonight down low against MIA, but IMO he isn’t physically capable to dominate the entire game and so, the Heat will focus in holding LAL’s perimeter offense. However, I don’t think the Heat is in a good spot to perform at their best offensively. They had to make a huge travel for this contest w/ just one day off and to make things even worse; they had to battle hard against ATL in the last game, a game that went to OT! The Lakers have been completely outrebounded in the last few games but they will have some break today as MIA really don’t crash the boards offensively. They are also protecting the rim pretty well as of late by allowing just 51.5% FG at the rim L4 games, defending the perimeter has been indeed a huge problem for them, but again, I think that the Heat will struggle a bit in shooting the ball from long range. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Under 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes