Saturday, December 21, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 12/21: Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic

  
Sacramento  at Orlando 
NBA - 505 Sacramento Kings @ 506 Orlando Magic

Plays #3 & 4


Sacramento's defense had no chance against Atlanta's and Miami's spread offenses, as they have good shooters all over the floor, ready to explore the Kings' poor team help defense. This is why the Hawks and the Heat had 38 and 32 assists in those games. The question is that Orlando's offense won't be able to do something similar in here. The Magic's offense is based on pick and rolls, spot ups and transitions plus while Atlanta is #1 on assist rates and Miami is #4, Orlando is just #24! The Magic are #14 on pick and roll ball handler offense, but they aren't good on spot ups and transitions. In fact, they are just shooting 32.3% 3pts over the last 10 games (#24)! Therefore, I believe that Sacramento's defense has a nice spot in here to bounce back decently in here, after getting crushed in back to back games.

Orlando is a good team when it comes to protecting the basket and it isn't easy to game to have monster games against them by pounding them down low with a lot of points in the paint. The Magic are #4 on points in the paint allowed, #2 on post up defense and they are allowing just 60% FG at the rim! Therefore, Sacramento won't have in here a good spot to score a lot of easy points, even though DeMarcus Cousins should outplay Nikola Vucevic. However, the Kings' pick and roll offense led by Isaiah Thomas should have a mega edge on offense against Orlando's poor defense, who is just #22 on pick and roll ball handler defense. Therefore, I expect a relatively low scoring game in here with Sacramento having the slight upper hand and so, I'll be taking both the Kings and the Under tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Sacramento Kings (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

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