NBA - 807 Houston Rockets @ 808 San Antonio Spurs
Play #3
First of all, the Rockets had a favorable spot for the first game vs. SAS: both teams were playing the second night of a b2b set (3rd game in 4nights), but while HOU played vs. ATL and vs. BKN at home and easily won both games, the Spurs played on the road @OKC and @ORL w/ the game @OKC being obviously a “big” game for them.
HOU started strong but they allowed SAS to come back before closing out the deal. The KEY factor for their win was the Rockets’ complete domination on the rebounding battle. HOU ended the game w/ impressive reb/rate of 60% - they outrebounded SAS 54-33 & 12-4 on offensive boards! However, note that was the time where Omer Asik was still a valuable member of the team as he was the main “big” backup player coming off the bench, so the Rockets had always a “big” on the court. Also, the Spurs had to deal w/ Tiago Splitter not being @ 100%, head coach Popovich had to remove him from the starting lineup and he played only 17 minutes coming off the bench, as Boris Diaw was their starter @PF. It is now pretty easy to understand why the Rockets outrebounded the Spurs so badly in that game
Obviously, I don’t expect HOU to have such tremendous edge on the boards today. Asik is OUT, Smith is OUT and the Rockets in the last game against DAL had Casspi as their “big” player coming off the bench. Despite playing against an awful rebounding team, the Rockets weren’t able to dominate DAL on the boards!
Also, Patrick Beverley played in that game (he logged 37 minutes) and had a team high +/- +11 points for the team. He was a key factor on the defensive end by having 3 defensive boards, 3 steals and 1 block. He is OUT as well for today and his importance for the team is truly underrated in my opinion as he is by FAR their best defensive player on the backcourt. When you are facing a team like the Spurs, you need a defensive stopper just to make Tony Parker work hard, and right now, the Rockets don’t have any player to do that.
HOU has been struggling to protect the rim lately, and without Beverly, they struggled to stop DAL perimeter offense in the last game. The Spurs offense playing at home will be too much for the Rockets defense.
Dwight Howard is playing great lately but SAS interior defense is one of the best in the league. HOU would have to shoot lights out from the outside just to hang around w/ SAS but w/ Harden banged up and Lin still yet on the best form, I expect SAS to easy beat the Rockets tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 808 San Antonio Spurs (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 809 Los Angeles Clippers @ 810 Golden State Warriors
Play #4
With the return of Andre Iguodala, GSW defense automatically looked better and more confident on their ability as a unit. Their defensive structure is built around Iguodala and obviously, GSW defense improved dramatically in L4 games w/ Defensive Ratings of 97.7, 100.9, 81.2 and 87.7!
Meanwhile, the Clippers are riding high right now. They finished their 4-game home span by winning all games while showing some great offense and decent defense.
However there are some factors in L3 games that I didn’t like and eventually it will turn against them tonight. First of all, they keep launching too many three pointers per game…L3 games, they attempted 23, 33 and 29 while hitting just 34%! They were also completely outrebounded in those games by having just 45.4, 47.0 and 45.9% reb/rate%.
This kind of mindset of attempting too many treys and don’t work hard on the glass can be dangerous especially if you are playing against the Warriors @GSW!
Doc Rivers is now using Jamal Crawford as their starting shooting guard and I expect Mark Jackson to work in this matchup by exploring Jamal bad overall defense (especially on screens). Due to some injuries, GSW bench has been a subpar unit all season long, but I don’t expect LAC to have any particular edge in this area because Jamal Crawford is now starting.
In this scenario of two jump shooting teams playing each other, I think we have some value w/ GSW and that’s why I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 810 Golden State Warriors ML @ -135 / 1.74 on Betonline
NBA - 803 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 804 New York Knicks
Play #1
Obviously, the Knicks were able to be efficient on the offense end. However, note that despite scoring 103 points, NYK had just 19 assists in 39 FGM for a subpar 48.7% assist/rate% and just 3 fast break points – no transition game or whatsoever!
This might work against a bad P&R & Spot up defensive team like ORL....However against an OKC defense that in those 2 areas is ranked #4 & #3 in the league, this simply won’t work! The supreme athleticism of OKC isn’t comparable vs. ORL and so the Knicks offense without a good ball movement and lack of transition game, will be in trouble in the half court vs. OKC defense.
Despite the return of Tyson Chandler, NYK defense is still bad, especially w/ their team help defense concept. Their 1*1 defense down low is actually pretty decent but when it comes to rotate and make the right defensive decisions, they are a mess. A decent aggressive guard will torch them off the dribble and you can consider Russell Westbrook as one of those “decent” guards.
OKC was playing their best basketball of the season when they went @SAS and beat them with some ease (I had OKC+3 in that game) but, then in a b2b home game they completely relaxed and overlooked the Raptors, and ended up losing the game for their first home loss of the season. The loss was so bizarre especially considering that OKC was leading the game by double digits points in the 4th quarter! They finished the 4th quarter shooting 5-25 from the field – a comical 20% FG mark!
Raymond Felton is OUT for today, so the Knicks have only Beno Udrih to play as natural PG. Obviously HC Mike Woodson will have to find some solutions for this position but regardless who plays the position, Russell Westbrook will just destroy the Knicks today.
OKC superior bench play, superior talent and superior “motivation” will be just too much for the Knicks today. The Knicks have already on their backs some blowout losses against “lowly” teams like the Celtics or the Cavaliers, now they will face a OKC fired up team, good luck with that!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Oklahoma City Thunder (-9) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline
NBA - 805 Miami Heat @ 806 Los Angeles Lakers
Play #2
I expect the Lakers offense to struggle (once again) in this matchup. Their offense is predicated on Pick n Rolls in multiple ways. In the last 3 games, their volume% of P&R ball handler plays was more than 20% in average – pretty high number for any team in the league! The problem is that I have bad news for them, because the Heat is the BEST DEFENSIVE TEAM in the league defending P&R BH plays allowing just 0.57 PPP! MIA’s great ball pressure defense is a tough matchup for a shorthanded Lakers team that tends to commit TO’s against aggressive defensive teams. I know that Jordan Farmar is back today and he will give some decent play @PG position, but still he won’t perform any miracle for his team.
Eventually, Pau Gasol has a good spot to perform well tonight down low against MIA, but IMO he isn’t physically capable to dominate the entire game and so, the Heat will focus in holding LAL’s perimeter offense.
However, I don’t think the Heat is in a good spot to perform at their best offensively. They had to make a huge travel for this contest w/ just one day off and to make things even worse; they had to battle hard against ATL in the last game, a game that went to OT!
The Lakers have been completely outrebounded in the last few games but they will have some break today as MIA really don’t crash the boards offensively. They are also protecting the rim pretty well as of late by allowing just 51.5% FG at the rim L4 games, defending the perimeter has been indeed a huge problem for them, but again, I think that the Heat will struggle a bit in shooting the ball from long range.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Under 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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