Friday, December 13, 2013

NBA Premium Play 12/12

NBA - 501 Los Angeles Clippers @ 502 Brooklyn Nets

Play #1

*** TRIPLE DIME PLAY***


Regardless of their opponent for tonight, the Clippers will have to deal with a terrible physical spot. This will be their 6 straight road game, their 6th game in 9 days and we are talking about a team that lacks the proper depth and to make things even worse, they are shorthanded as well. They were able to win last night @BOS with a strong second half but they were facing a tired team that was playing the 2nd night of a b2b spot.

The decision to make the Nets a top play or a simple Single Dime Play was made after watching the great return of Deron Williams against the Celtics this last Tuesday.  I understand that the Nets are still far from being a great team but they will have tonight one particular huge edge on my opinion: Brook Lopez!

Lopez is just unstoppable on the post. He had 9-18 FG, 11-13 FG and 10-13 FG in the last 3 games and the Clippers only have DeAndre Jordan to defend him who is a bit foul prone. I expect the Nets frontcourt to complete dominate this contest. I remember that the Cavs’ frontcourt crushed the Clippers a few days ago w/ 16 offensive boards & 56.4% reb/rate while Andrew Bynum in just 24min went 8-13 from the field. LAC doesn’t have any depth on the front. Yesterday Doc Rivers used Jamison and Hollins for just 12 minutes and I saw for some moments Jared Dudley being @PF in some bizarre small ball lineups. Luckily for them, the Celtics don’t have a strong frontline so the Clippers were able to play small. This won’t happen tonight!

I was surprised with how good Deron Williams looked like on his return. He pushed the pace, he was aggressive and his shot was solid, just look to his stats line: 37min, 10-16 FG, 4-7 FT, 25 points and 7 assists. Make no mistake, the Nets perimeter defense remains awful and the Celtics torched them by hitting 11-22 3pts. However the Clippers are really struggling to hit outside shots during this road trip: 33-118 - a 28% mark! Their best shooter Reddick is out and with heavy legs, I don’t think they will be able to explore the Nets’ defensive weakest link. The presence of Deron Williams is extremely important because it will make CP3 work hard on the defensive end and again, this is a terrible physical spot for the Clippers!

I’m taking the Nets as one of my strongest plays of the season – Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 502 Brooklyn Nets (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

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