Play #1
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
I’ve been watching a lot of the Nuggets games as of late and I can say that they are not playing good basketball right now. Their starting line is unbalanced w/ Faried & Hickson on the frontcourt and for some reason DEN has been outscored in 8 straight first quarters.
They were able to beat the Pelicans in the last game but they didn’t convince me at all. The Pelicans without A. Davis are super shorthanded on the frontcourt and with Jason Smith battling foul trouble in the second half, the Pelicans didn’t have the proper depth to hang around w/ DEN frontline. The result was inevitable w/ DEN crushing NO on the boards: 51-32 total rebounds, 15-9 on offensive boards and a huge edge w/ almost 60% reb/rate%! Not surprisingly, the two leading scorers for the Nuggets were Hickson & Faried: 19 points each while shooting 13-21 FG & grabbing 7 offensive boards.
Ty Lawson is yet to be 100% confident (and healthy) in his ability after his hamstring injury and Brian Shaw really likes playing Andre Miller and Nate Robinson on the court at the same time.
The problem for the Nuggets is that OKC is another different animal than NO! OKC’s frontcourt is way more physical than NO’s and they are allowing a formidable 54% FG mark at the rim in the L11 games. OKC’s athleticism on the wings will make things tough for a DEN team that is struggling to hit their outside shots. In the L6 games DEN has shot 6-23, 6-17, 7-22, 7-21, 7-21 & 7-24 behind the line – a putrid 40-128 31.2% 3pts% mark!
In the first h2h between these two teams, the Nuggets almost have defeated OKC @road. However, the Thunder were returning home after a tough 3-game road trip (@LAC, @GSW & @MIL) and their lack of energy was noticed in the first quarter by being outscored 28-39! Note that Kevin Durant & Russell Westbrook combined to shoot 21-52 from the field – an awful 40% mark, this will not happen tonight!
Usually, the Nuggets would have a nice edge w/ their second unit, but right now OKC’s bench is playing at a great high level. Reggie Jackson & Lamb have been great lately and tonight against Andre Miller & Nate Robinson, I really think OKC will have the upper hand in this area as well.
The correlation of all these factors favoring OKC is the reason why I’m taking the Oklahoma City Thunder as my Triple Dime Play.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 507 Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 501 Portland Trail Blazers @ 502 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #2
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Cleveland Cavaliers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
Play #2
Portland will play tonight their third game of the road trip and they are 2-0 so far w/ blowout win @PHI, and a terrific comeback win @DET w/ after a strong 26-15 4th quarter score and Damian Lillard’s clutch shot in the Overtime. All their 5 starters logged at least 40 minutes of action so a physical letdown could happen tonight @CLE.
I had the OVER in that game @DET and I was expecting DET’s frontcourt to dominate the poor interior defense of the Blazers and indeed they did: POR ended the game w/ 68 points in the paint while 65% of their shots were near the basket.
One of the key factors for this improved play from the Cavaliers lately has been their frontcourt, led by Andrew Bynum. Note that CLE was averaging 33.8 points in the paint/game in the first 17 games of the season but in the L6 games = 44.3 ppg! I expect CLE frontline to have a nice offensive edge vs. the Blazers in this area.
Even though Lillard is playing better defense this season, he is still a subpar individual defensive player – the Blazers defense is ranked just #20 defending Pick n Rolls Ball Handler plays for some reason! The bad news for them is that Kyrie Irving is playing his best basketball of the season right now – he’s been named the Eastern Conference of the week and in the L3 games he scored 37, 31 and 19 points w/ nice 19/6 A/TO ratio! I also expect Cleveland to have a nice offensive edge in Irving vs. Lillard and/or Mo Williams.
Obviously, the Blazers offense will have some key edges as well mainly w/ Aldridge shooting from the outside vs. slow footed CLE frontcourt. Cleveland is yet to be consistent in-game as Mike Brown is still looking for the best rotation but I think that the Cavaliers will be extremely competitive tonight and the Blazers should have been favored by just one ball possession, therefore I’m taking the Cavaliers tonight as my Single Dime Play!
I had the OVER in that game @DET and I was expecting DET’s frontcourt to dominate the poor interior defense of the Blazers and indeed they did: POR ended the game w/ 68 points in the paint while 65% of their shots were near the basket.
One of the key factors for this improved play from the Cavaliers lately has been their frontcourt, led by Andrew Bynum. Note that CLE was averaging 33.8 points in the paint/game in the first 17 games of the season but in the L6 games = 44.3 ppg! I expect CLE frontline to have a nice offensive edge vs. the Blazers in this area.
Even though Lillard is playing better defense this season, he is still a subpar individual defensive player – the Blazers defense is ranked just #20 defending Pick n Rolls Ball Handler plays for some reason! The bad news for them is that Kyrie Irving is playing his best basketball of the season right now – he’s been named the Eastern Conference of the week and in the L3 games he scored 37, 31 and 19 points w/ nice 19/6 A/TO ratio! I also expect Cleveland to have a nice offensive edge in Irving vs. Lillard and/or Mo Williams.
Obviously, the Blazers offense will have some key edges as well mainly w/ Aldridge shooting from the outside vs. slow footed CLE frontcourt. Cleveland is yet to be consistent in-game as Mike Brown is still looking for the best rotation but I think that the Cavaliers will be extremely competitive tonight and the Blazers should have been favored by just one ball possession, therefore I’m taking the Cavaliers tonight as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Cleveland Cavaliers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NBA - 503 Sacramento Kings @ 504 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #3
Play #3
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
I must confess that I really don’t like to play the OVER involving the Bobcats, but we have tonight a really good spot for them to have a decent offensive game, and more importantly, we have the proper line value edge.
This Bobcats team really can’t hit outside shots, if they just could be a “decent” shooting team, certainly they were a lock to be in the playoffs @Eastern Conference. They are decent when they attack the rim especially w/ Kemba Walker dribble drive’s moves, this is one of the biggest reasons of why the Bobcats are ranked #6 in Free Throws attempted per game w/ 26.1.
I had a play w/ Bobcats in their last game against the Lakers but they were really tired after playing tight the Pacers on the road in the previous night and their lack of aggressiveness was well evident if we just notice that they went only 8 times to the charity stripe line.
For tonight, their offense will have 3 key edges for them: 1) The Kings interior defense is one of the worst of the league! I have them ranked #30 protecting the rim by allowing almost 70% FG! 2) Kemba Walker’s matchup is Isaiah Thomas who is far from being a good defensive player and finally 3) The Kings are ranked #27 in defending post up plays so Al Jefferson could have a nice offensive game as well.
On the other side, the Kings offense has been pretty good since Isaiah Thomas is their full time Point Guard. The fact that Rudy Gay is coming from efficient back to back games is a bit of a surprise (he had 8-12 FG & 10-20 FG L2 games) and the Kings offense are a tough matchup right now for any team.
I expect the Kings to dictate the tempo of the game. The Bobcats against Western Conference are playing @faster pace so we can expect a relatively up tempo game w/ both teams having the upper hand vs. defenses; therefore I’m taking the Over in here as my Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 505 Los Angeles Lakers @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #4
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Play #4
I really didn’t think the Lakers would have been competitive last night against the Hawks and that’s why I took ATL-6 in the game. ATL spread offense w/ good shooters and their skilled big men were too much for a shorthanded Lakers team on the backcourt. The good news for today is that they will face a Grizzlies team that are far from being a good shooting team and will play without their best backcourt player Mike Conley. The Lakers interior defense isn’t anything special but tonight’s game plan will be an easy one: pack the paint! The Grizzlies have been struggling offensively and without both Gasol & Conley, their floor spacing will be ugly to watch.
On the other side, the Lakers offense is now struggling to hit their outside shots. Since Kobe returned = 33-113 3pts%, just 29%! They are playing with Bryan @ Point Guard and obviously he struggling badly to play at this position. MEM perimeter defense has been terrible as of late but w/ the Lakers struggling they will have a good spot for tonight and I expect this contest to be a ugly game to watch w/ low scoring outcome.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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