NFL Week 13 Free Premium Play: Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee  at Indianapolis

NFL Week 13 - 425 Tennessee Titans @ 426 Indianapolis Colts Play #1 Tennessee is coming from an important road win at Oakland last week, but that was achieved while having a negative overall DVOA in that game, so their performance wasn't that good. In fact, they had also recently defeated St Louis on the road, while having a negative DVOA as well, so the Titans are winning but not playing great football in the process. Tennessee is a run oriented team, especially since they lost QB Jake Locker for the season. This is their pass/rush split since their bye week back in week 8: Pass% Rush% 0.39 0.61 0.61 0.39 0.54 0.46 0.59 0.41 They only had one game with more than 60% of pass plays and that was against Jacksonville, in a game where they were down in the score and so, needed to take more risks. However, it's important to mention that they showed a decent pass offense over their last two games. On the other hand, the Titans' defense is average. Tennessee will now face an Indianapolis team on an important divisional game for both teams. The Colts are also run oriented and they like to run the football a lot, unless they get down big early in the game and then, they have to throw the gameplan in the trash and throw the football a lot, like it happened with 79% pass plays against St Louis and 72% pass plays at Arizona last week. On the first game played between these two teams earlier in the season, Indianapolis won at Tennessee by 30-27. It was a game where both teams surprisingly showed a great running game, with the Titans having their second best game of the season regarding rush DVOA with +30.2%, while Indianapolis had their best running game of the season with +38.9% DVOA! However, I don't expect that to happen today, where both teams will indeed use their conservative playbook by calling a lot of running plays, but without having the efficiency that they had on the game played at Tennessee. Therefore, I believe this will be a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 425/426 Under 46 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada