Play #5
Toronto is on an evident tank mode right now, with no stress to win, while showing a lazier approach and a more uptempo style. They had 14.6% volume of transitions on each of their last two games, a season high number for the Raptors! Tonight they will face an excellent opportunity to continue running against the fastest paced team in the league in the Sixers.
Toronto's defense will surely struggle to adjust to so many changes on the team lately. Their transition defense is getting worse by the day and after allowing 11.1 fast break points allowed per game on their first ten games of the season, they allowed 14.6 fast break points allowed per game on their last ten games! This will be awesome news for Philadelphia, who will pound them on transitions in here. I expect a very fast paced game in here, with both teams using a wild approach on it and low effort on defense. Therefore, I believe this will be a super high scoring game in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Over 202.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 823 Sacramento Kings @ 824 Phoenix Suns
Play #6
Play #6
Rudy Gay will debut for Sacramento tonight at the SF position, however I don't expect him to have a good debut tonight, as Phoenix will be fired up and ready to crush Sacramento tonight. I know that the Kings defense is getting even worse with their lineup changes. This is why I took a Top Play on the Over on their last game against Utah. That defensive performance from the Kings was so bad that Utah had an offensive rating of 139 in that game, one of the highest offensive ratings by any team in the league so far this season!
The presence of Rudy Gay will always be a problem for Sacramento early on, as he isn't still used to his new teammates and the Kings' system, so I believe Sacramento's defense will once again struggle big time. Isaiah Thomas is the team's new starting PG and he is the defense's main black hole. However, his backups Ray McCallum and Jimmer Fredette are even worse on defense than him! This is great news for Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe who will have an excellent matchup for today!
Phoenix lost consecutive games against Sacramento (104-107 at Sacramento; 106-113 at home). Both games were tight, but there was a huge factor that helped the Kings big time: Bledsoe didn't play in both games! Now with Bledsoe back, Phoenix will explore the second worst transition defense in the league and with a revenge mindset, they will crush the Kings tonight!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 824 Phoenix Suns (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 825 Houston Rockets @ 826 Golden State Warriors
Play #7
Play #7
Houston had a tough game at Portland last night, with all their starters excluding Terrence Jones having heavy minutes. Therefore, this won't be an easy spot for them and so, Golden State's gameplan for tonight will be exactly to take advantage of that and run the Rockets out of the gym! We are in front of two teams who will have some great edges on the offensive end in here. Jermaine O'Neal is out and the Warriors don't have any depth on the frontcourt right now, so we can expect Dwight Howard to completely dominate down low. With Andre Iguodala still out, the Warriors are struggling on their perimeter defense and that will be well explored by the Rockets' backcourt. On the first game between these two teams, Houston scored 87 points just on the first quarters of the game and they only slowed down on the fourth quarter due to the blowout score (18-17 score in the 4Q).
Golden State struggled heavily on offense in that game and they scored just 12 points in the first quarter. This was caused by Mark Jackson's horrible gameplan, who was obsessed with exploring James Harden's poor individual defense and set up Harrison Barnes to have several plays against James Harden 1*1. Not only that made Harden fired up, as Barnes doesn't have the skills to receive such high volume of offensive plays. Note that he was the player who attempted more shots on a poor 5-16 FG night, while the Warriors's offensive flow was awful thanks to that, with Step Curry shooting 5-14 FG and Klay Thompson 2-10 FG! I believe that Golden State won't repeat the same strategy tonight. They will play their usual basketball and with that, I believe this game will be an all-out high scoring game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 825/826 Over 212 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 813 Los Angeles Lakers @ 814 Oklahoma City Thunder
Play #1
Play #1
To make things even worse, Steve Blake got injured and will be out for some time. He has been one of the “positive surprises” for the Lakers this year, having a career-high thus far with 7.7 assists per game & 9.8 points per game while shooting 40% behind the line.
The Lakers are now without any of their Point Guards (Nash, Blake and Farmar) and with a starting Shooting Guard that is rusty and off sync with the rest of the team. The athletic backcourt of the Phoenix Suns simply outrun them with ease as Dragic and Bledsoe combined to score 49 points while shooting 16-37 FG, 14-15 FT & 14/4 A/TO ratio. PHX scored 21 fast break points for super efficient 12-19 FG 1.17 PPP in transition plays.
So the Lakers will now have to deal with Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and/or Reggie Jackson on the open court… good luck with that!!! OKC has a tremendous edge in athleticism especially on the backcourt and they know that, so we can expect them to push the pace and run the Lakers out of the building.
OKC returns home after a 6-game road trip so this is a potential letdown spot. However I don’t think such letdown will happen for them. They defeated the Grizzlies pretty easily in their last game so Head Coach Scott Brooks could manage the minutes of their starters, and last but not the least, we are talking about the Thunder facing the Lakers…they hate the Lakers so given the chance to embarrass the Lakers, they won’t give away the opportunity.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 814 Oklahoma City Thunder (-12) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 801 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 802 Orlando Magic
Play #2
*** DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Pick: 3 units (Double Dime Play) on 801 Cleveland Cavaliers (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Play #2
*** DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Cavaliers are improving pretty fast and IMO they will be shortly one of the lowest seeds in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Lately, they beat CHI, DEN, LAC & NYK and they are coming for this contest winning 4 of their last 5 games. The major key for this good run is their complete domination on the glass – 53.6% reb/rate% & impressive 32% off. Reb/rate%! Andrew Bynum is finally showing that he still can play while Varejao coming off the bench owns the glass vs. opp. 2nd units.
Their offense is still a work in progress and maybe too much dependent on Kyrie Irving. He laid a huge egg @ATL (in 20min, he went scoreless w/ 0-9 FG & 0-3 FT) and the Cavaliers were crushed by the Hawks in that game but he is coming from a monster game vs. NYK w/ 37 pts, 14-23 FG & 11 assists.
The matchup against the Magic is pretty favorable for the Cavaliers: Jameer Nelson won’t be able to stop an aggressive Irving while the Cavs size on the frontcourt will be too much for the Magic undersized frontcourt.
Orlando is coming from a nice road win @CHA where they took advantage of the complete inability of the Bobcats to hit outside wide open shots but I don’t like their physical spot for tonight’s game. I remember that they return home after a 6-game road trip and Head Coach Jacque Vaughn is using a short rotation, look for their starters’ minutes L2 games:
@MEM:
Glen Davis, 40 min
Andrew Nicholson, 37 min
Jameer Nelson, 44 min
Arron Afflalo, 45 min
Victor Oladipo, 40 min
@CHA last game:
Glen Davis, 37 min
Nikola Vucevic, 33 min
Jameer Nelson, 41 min
Arron Afflalo, 38 min
Victor Oladipo, 31 min
The Cavaliers defense struggles against big men that can hit from the outside because their players are too big & slow. Millsap & Horford had great games against them, and even last game Melo had (a rare) efficient offensive performance. However, both Vucevic and Davis are more comfortable working down low and this will work favorably for the Cavs’ slow footed big men.
Cleveland is only 1-10 on the road this season but their playing way better lately and with a favorable matchup and better spot I expect them to beat the Magic with some ease and therefore I’m taking them as my Double Dime Play.
Their offense is still a work in progress and maybe too much dependent on Kyrie Irving. He laid a huge egg @ATL (in 20min, he went scoreless w/ 0-9 FG & 0-3 FT) and the Cavaliers were crushed by the Hawks in that game but he is coming from a monster game vs. NYK w/ 37 pts, 14-23 FG & 11 assists.
The matchup against the Magic is pretty favorable for the Cavaliers: Jameer Nelson won’t be able to stop an aggressive Irving while the Cavs size on the frontcourt will be too much for the Magic undersized frontcourt.
Orlando is coming from a nice road win @CHA where they took advantage of the complete inability of the Bobcats to hit outside wide open shots but I don’t like their physical spot for tonight’s game. I remember that they return home after a 6-game road trip and Head Coach Jacque Vaughn is using a short rotation, look for their starters’ minutes L2 games:
@MEM:
Glen Davis, 40 min
Andrew Nicholson, 37 min
Jameer Nelson, 44 min
Arron Afflalo, 45 min
Victor Oladipo, 40 min
@CHA last game:
Glen Davis, 37 min
Nikola Vucevic, 33 min
Jameer Nelson, 41 min
Arron Afflalo, 38 min
Victor Oladipo, 31 min
The Cavaliers defense struggles against big men that can hit from the outside because their players are too big & slow. Millsap & Horford had great games against them, and even last game Melo had (a rare) efficient offensive performance. However, both Vucevic and Davis are more comfortable working down low and this will work favorably for the Cavs’ slow footed big men.
Cleveland is only 1-10 on the road this season but their playing way better lately and with a favorable matchup and better spot I expect them to beat the Magic with some ease and therefore I’m taking them as my Double Dime Play.
Note: split the wager, 75% on the spread & 25% on the Moneyline.
Pick: 3 units (Double Dime Play) on 801 Cleveland Cavaliers (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 1 units (Double Dime Play) on 801 Cleveland Cavaliers ML @ +115 / 2.15 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 821 Utah Jazz @ 822 Denver Nuggets
Play #3
I don’t think that Jazz Head Coach Tyrone Corbin is a good coach for several reasons, but at least IMO he made the right decision to not start Favors and Kanter together as these two players are way too similar to share big minutes on the floor (just like the dilemma Howard & Asik @HOU earlier on the season).
Marvin Williams isn’t a great player at all but his ability to spread the floor @PF position is working for the Jazz right now as their offense looks more fluid. Marvin had a nice 4-game stretch in which he shot 7-14 FG, 7-11 FG, 6-11 FG & 4-10 FG while hitting at least 2 treys in every game and the Jazz defeated CHI, PHX & HOU in that stretch. Eventually he got injured, missed 4 games (all UTA clear losses) and returned last game just to help the Jazz crush the Kings on the road.
With rookie PG Trey Burke running sharp pick n rolls & better floor spacing, the Jazz went from having Off. Rtg = 96.1 in the first 16 games of the season vs. 114.3 in L8 games! They are not an elite team but they aren’t the same pathetic team that started the season.
Tonight they will catch a Nuggets team that enjoyed a nice 3-days rest after being on the road for quite some time. I took them in L3 games (@BOS, @PHI & @WAS) just because they were facing some favorable matchups and their superior depth was a premium factor that really helped them to win the last 2 games. However, although I won L2 plays w/ them I have to say that they looked awful (especially their starting unit) and they were able to win b/c PHI is a terrible team and the Wizards were seriously shorthanded for that game.
I understand that Ty Lawson didn’t play in the last 2 games and he is probable for tonight’s game, but I think the Nuggets right now are a bit overrated and probably way too much confident, while the Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season with all players healthy.
The Nuggets already faced the Jazz this season and crushed them @UTA 100-81 but that was the time where John Lucas III was starting for the Jazz and playing 34 minutes…. Enough said!
My fair line for this contest is DEN-6/-8 points so we have some edge on the Underdog getting double digits points and therefore I’m taking the Utah Jazz as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 821 Utah Jazz (+10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Play #3
I don’t think that Jazz Head Coach Tyrone Corbin is a good coach for several reasons, but at least IMO he made the right decision to not start Favors and Kanter together as these two players are way too similar to share big minutes on the floor (just like the dilemma Howard & Asik @HOU earlier on the season).
Marvin Williams isn’t a great player at all but his ability to spread the floor @PF position is working for the Jazz right now as their offense looks more fluid. Marvin had a nice 4-game stretch in which he shot 7-14 FG, 7-11 FG, 6-11 FG & 4-10 FG while hitting at least 2 treys in every game and the Jazz defeated CHI, PHX & HOU in that stretch. Eventually he got injured, missed 4 games (all UTA clear losses) and returned last game just to help the Jazz crush the Kings on the road.
With rookie PG Trey Burke running sharp pick n rolls & better floor spacing, the Jazz went from having Off. Rtg = 96.1 in the first 16 games of the season vs. 114.3 in L8 games! They are not an elite team but they aren’t the same pathetic team that started the season.
Tonight they will catch a Nuggets team that enjoyed a nice 3-days rest after being on the road for quite some time. I took them in L3 games (@BOS, @PHI & @WAS) just because they were facing some favorable matchups and their superior depth was a premium factor that really helped them to win the last 2 games. However, although I won L2 plays w/ them I have to say that they looked awful (especially their starting unit) and they were able to win b/c PHI is a terrible team and the Wizards were seriously shorthanded for that game.
I understand that Ty Lawson didn’t play in the last 2 games and he is probable for tonight’s game, but I think the Nuggets right now are a bit overrated and probably way too much confident, while the Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season with all players healthy.
The Nuggets already faced the Jazz this season and crushed them @UTA 100-81 but that was the time where John Lucas III was starting for the Jazz and playing 34 minutes…. Enough said!
My fair line for this contest is DEN-6/-8 points so we have some edge on the Underdog getting double digits points and therefore I’m taking the Utah Jazz as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 821 Utah Jazz (+10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 815 Memphis Grizzlies @ 816 New Orleans Pelicans
Play #4
Play #4
This isn't a good spot for New Orleans, who is coming from an overtime game against Detroit. Ryan Anderson, Jason Smith and Al-Farouq Aminu played 36, 40 and 43 minutes and both Anderson and Smith are finesse players who need fresh legs to have good FG%. The Pelicans' offense is based on pick and rolls, spot ups and transitions, with a very high volume of shooting from the 16-23 feet area. They will be facing a Grizzlies team that is still an excellent rim protection team even without Marc Gasol.
Memphis's defense has been horrible in defending pick and roll ball handler plays (#26 with 0.81 PPP allowed) and the injuries on the backcourt has been the key for that, with Jerryd Bayless being "forced" to start. The good news is that Tony Allen is back and the Grizzlies' defensive numbers are much better with Allen on court than with him off the court. With the Pelicans being tired and with Tony Allen and Ed Davis being back for the Grizzlies, I believe New Orleans's offense will struggle in here.
On the other side, Memphis's offense keeps having the same problems with their outside shooting. This is always a good sign for the Pelicans' defense whose weakest link is on closing out the shooters on the perimeter. Therefore, I believe both teams will have problems on offense tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Under 192.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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