Thursday, December 5, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 12/05: New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets

New York  at Brooklyn 
NBA - 501 New York Knicks @ 502 Brooklyn Nets

Play #1


This is a game between two ridiculous Eastern teams that had high expectations for this season. For tonight, I believe the Knicks have better conditions to pound the Nets than the opposite. Brooklyn have Brook Lopez back and he is the only consistent player on the team's offense, but he needs some time to get back into his top form after an injury lay-off. However, Brooklyn is forcing a lot to try to feed Lopez down low. This is why the Nets had 22.9% and 24.8% volume of post ups on their last two games. They had efficient numbers on this play, but their offensive flow keeps being awful.

This is actually good news for the Knicks' defense that is a nice post up defensive team by being #6 in the league with 0.76 PPP allowed. Andrea Bargnani isn't a weak individual defender, even though he is terrible on awareness and team help defense. The Knicks struggles on defending transition plays and they are coming from allowing 19 fast break points from the Pelicans, while their team help defense keeps struggling and so, they keep getting pounded by the opposing aggressive guards. However, they will be on a nice spot tonight, as Brooklyn is #29 in the league on fast break points with just 9.3 per game, while Deron Williams is still out and that will be a relief for the Knicks' guards.

On the other side, Brooklyn's perimeter defense has been awful and they are #30 on pick and roll defense and #28 on spot up defense. The Knicks have been inconsistent on outside shooting this season, but the Nets will give them enough conditions for them to a nice outside game tonight. Therefore, I believe the Knicks have the better matchups to win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 New York Knicks ML @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

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