Play #1
I didn’t have any doubt when I took the Cavaliers in their game against the Nuggets. I had watched their previous game against the Bulls and I was impressed by their performance in both ends of the floor. Their offense is still a work in progress, but they are now feeding Andrew Bynum in the post when he is playing and Bynum can still dominate down low! He wasn’t particularly efficient against the Nuggets. but note that he attempted 15 field goals in just 20 minutes of action! Also Tristan Thompson looked more confident and his role on the team is now to clean up the glass and take advantage to the extra attention that Bynum is getting now. Defensively, Cleveland is also competing harder. Kyrie Irving was sloppy and lazy early on the year, but he looked engaged right now. Ty Lawson, who has been playing like an all-star, was held to 1-13 shooting due to the Cavaliers defensive scheme: Once Lawson made it past the first line of defense there was someone right there to stop him getting easy buckets.
Cleveland is crushing the boards and tonight they will be a tough matchup for the Hawks. Both Paul Millsap and Al Horford are great offensively, but they will be in a tough spot against the Cavaliers' frontcourt. Atlanta defeated the Clippers behind a stellar game from Kyle Korver and complete mid range performance from both Horford and Millsap. I expect the Hawks frontcourt duo to have another solid performance because the Cavs frontline don’t want to be far from the basket. However, the Cavaliers will be a tough matchup for the Hawks and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Cleveland Cavaliers (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 803 Milwaukee Bucks @ 804 Washington Wizards
Play #2
The Wizards' starting lineup enjoyed a nice 3-days rest after a tough stretch of games where the Wizards were super competitive when their starting unit was on the floor, but struggled mightily when the second unit was on. Milwaukee will be without Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia and Ekpe Udoh – their 3 best interior defensive players – so I expect a field day for both Marcin Gortat and Nene Hilario. In the first game between these two teams this season, Gortat was almost perfect against the Bucks by shooting 11-12 FG.
On the other side, Milwaukee's offense is slowly getting better and on their last three games, they had 28, 21 and 25 assists so I expect them to be decent in here. The first game ended in overtime with both teams tied at 87 after regulation. Note that the Wizards were on a back to back spot, while both teams combined 47 turnovers! With the Wizards rested and the Bucks without their best interior defensive players, I expect a nice offensive game from the Wizards. The Bucks stronger second unit could make an impact tonight against the Wizards lack of depth. Therefore, I expect a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Over 191.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 809 Denver Nuggets @ 810 Boston Celtics
Plays #3 & 5
Denver is now 0-3 on the second night of a back to back after losing to the Cavaliers last Wednesday. Ty Lawson was awful by shooting 1-13 from the field and the Nuggets were outrebounded by the Cavaliers 58-43. By allowing 20 offensive boards, the Nuggets couldn’t go out in transition like they wanted and this helps to explain their lowly 88-points outcome. Tonight they will face the Celtics on the road on a pretty favorable matchup for them. Boston's defense has been decent, but a bit overrated due to the fact they have been facing plenty of Eastern Conference teams. Their mindset is to lock down the opposing perimeter game, but they are exposed near the basket with their undersized and inexperienced frontcourt. I understand that they are ranked #11 in the league allowing 59% FG at the rim, but when they faced elite teams that generate easy points near the basket, the Celtics struggled in this area. On their last game they allowed John Henson to shot 4-8 FG, Ekpe Udoh 4-7 FG, Ersan Ilyasova 3-5 FG and even Zaza Pachulia 3-5 FG. Against Western conference teams this season, they allowed Memphis to score 95 and 100 points, Portland 109, Houston 109 and San Antonio 104 points!
Denver will be able to score plenty of easy points against the Celtics who are as well a poor defensive rebounding team, so I expect an offensive bounce back game from them tonight.
Boston has been shooting well from long range except a terrible 4-19 3pts performance at Milwaukee in a back to back game, so they should generate some points against the Nuggets as well, however the Nuggets as a top team from the West is vastly superior than this Celtics team and I think they will win with some ease. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Over and the Nuggets in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Over 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809 Denver Nuggets (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 819 Utah Jazz @ 820 Portland Trailblazers
Play #4
The Trail Blazers’ last two wins against the Pacers and the Thunder were for real. They had some problems in the first half against a Thunder defense that was focused to close out Portland’s outside shooters and gave some inside space to them, but the Blazers aside from some Robin Lopez’s easy buckets didn’t take advantage of it. Oklahoma City outrebounded them and their second unit clearly outplayed Portland's unit. However, coach Terry Stotts made the right adjustments for the second half and LaMarcus Aldridge just killed OKC in every possible way especially with turnaround jumpers. Portland's last two games had “playoff atmospheres”. so it will be a challenge for them to not have a mental and physical letdown tonight against the Jazz, knowing that tomorrow they will face the Mavericks at home.
Since rookie Trey Burke is the Jazz's starting Point Guard which led to the demotion of John Lucas (and Jamaal Tinsley), Utah is playing a more fluid basketball in both ends of the floor. Burke and Hayward are now running more Pick n Roll’s and so, the Jazz big men are more involved on the offense. The once putrid Jazz offense has topped the 20-assist mark in all their L5 games and averaged 45.6 points in the paint per game versus 39 in the first 15 games.
I expect the Jazz to be a difficult matchup for the Blazers who are primed for a letdown after their two huge efforts against Indiana and Oklahoma City. They are playing better now and against the subpar interior defense of the Blazers I think will be able to score near the basket. Obviously the Jazz perimeter defense remains awful and the Blazers will also score from the outside against them. Still, I expect Utah to make this game relatively close and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 819 Utah Jazz (+11,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 815 Toronto Raptors @ 816 Phoenix Suns
Plays #6 & 7
This matchup is in theory quite favorable for Toronto, as Phoenix has an undersized frontcourt and they need some transition game on offense for them to be competitive. Their win at Houston was mostly due to the fact that they scored 26 fast break points. However, Toronto is one of the best rebounding teams in the league and so, they will prevent Phoenix from going on transitions often, as they will grab a lot of offensive rebounds, as the Suns are #28 on defensive rebounding, while Toronto is #4 on offensive rebounding.
Besides that, Toronto is also a decent transition defense team by being #9 in the league while allowing 1.07 PPP and #15 in fast break points allowed per game with 13.1 points. Therefore, Phoenix will struggle offensively as they won't score their usual points on transitions tonight. On the other hand, Toronto's offense keeps being unimpressive, with only Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan hiding that a little bit lately by being a bit more effective on their forced shots. Still, both teams will struggle on offense tonight and so, I can't agree with such a high totals line. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here. I also believe Toronto's edges on this game will make them highly competitive in here and so, I'll be taking the Raptors in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Under 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815 Toronto Raptors (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 807 Orlando Magic @ 808 New York Knicks
Plays #8 & 9
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Knicks is coming from an easy win at Brooklyn last night, where they looked like the Knicks from last season. They ran a lot of pick n rolls, avoided turnovers (just 12) and had a super sharp outside game with 16-27 3pts and 11-18 FG from 16-23 feet. However, this was of course helped by Brooklyn's defense that is dead last in both pick and roll and spot up defense. The Knicks will now host Orlando, another team with a poor backcourt defense, as they are #21 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #26 on spot up defense. In fact, Orlando allowed 1.13, 1.13, 1.28, 2.36 and 1.18 PPP on their last five games on spot up plays! If Brooklyn is allowing 44.0% 3pts on their last 10 games (#30), Orlando isn't much better with 41.2% 3pts allowed (#27).
Therefore, I believe the Knicks will have another great matchup to have a great offensive game and so, I expect them to take advantage of that. I believe this will be an uptempo game, with Orlando certainly shooting better from the outside than Brooklyn, who struggled yesterday with 4-16 3pts. I believe this will be a high scoring game, with the Knicks taking advantage of Orlando's poor perimeter defense to have an easy win, so I'll be taking both the Knicks in a Single Dime and the Over in a Double Dime in here.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 808 New York Knicks (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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