NBA - 701 Washington Wizards @ 702 Detroit Pistons
Plays #1 & 2
Washington will always be a tough match up for Detroit due to the fact that they are a decent team in protecting the basket, while they have been a good jump shooting team on offense, an area where Detroit's defense struggles. This was basically what happened on the last game between these two teams. The Pistons's front court was well defended with Greg Monroe shooting just 6-9 FG and even though he was efficient, he could just attempt nine shots. Andre Drummond shot just 2-5 FG, while Josh Smith shot 2-7 FG, before being benched on the second half. The Pistons as a team ended that game with just 1-4 FG on post up plays, so they would need a great outside shooting game to be competitive, but they were horrible with 7-38 FG from +10 feet shots for a horrible 18%!
On the other hand, the Wizards's offense took advantage of Detroit's bad team help defense on the perimeter. John Wall was aggressive and assisted help his teammates to help his team to end the game with a great 34 assists mark, something that help them ending the game with a nice 9-19 3pts! The Wizards also had a surprising edge on the boards battle and everything was very easy for them. For tonight's game, both teams aren't on a back to back spot and the match up edge will be the same for the Wizards. Of course Detroit will come more aggressive this time around and they'll win the boards battle, but the rest is maintained for this game, so I believe the Wizards have great value as underdogs tonight. I also believe both teams will have good offensive outcomes in here tonight, so I'll be taking both the Wizards and the Over on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 202,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Washington Wizards (+3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #3
Dallas is coming from a very easy win at Chicago, something obtained mostly via their perimeter game, as they had little volume on the inside, with just 31% of their shots coming from 9 feet or closer to the basket. The Mavericks put a lot of focus on their pick and roll game which was excellent and destroyed the Bulls's defense! Dallas shot 10-16 FG (1.17 PPP) on pick and roll ball handler plays and 8-12 FG (1.50 PPP) on pick and roll roll man plays! Defensively, Dallas naturally struggled in protecting the basket by allowing 19-27 (70%) FG at the rim, with Joakim Noah (8-11 FG) and Taj Gibson (5-7 FG) dominating down low, but that wasn't enough for Chicago, as their outside shooting didn't make any damage.
The Mavericks will now play at Minnesota against a team which is just #21 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense and #8 on pick and roll roll man defense, so Dallas will have a nice edge on offense tonight. The Wolves will have Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Love down low to try to pound Dallas's poor interior defense, but the Mavericks are now showing a bit more defensive cohesion lately as they are now starting Samuel Dalembert at the center position, while Brandan Wright is now healthy.
On the first two games between these two teams this season, Minnesota had a slight edge on rebounding, but the truth is that Dallas missed Vince Carter on the first game and Jose Calderon on the second game, while Brandan Wright didn't play both games. These three players are now healthy and ready to play tonight, so Dallas will have a better spot to face Minnesota this time around. I believe the Mavericks edge on pick and rolls will make them highly competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Dallas Mavericks (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Play #4
Last week Utah went to Charlotte and beat the Bobcats by 88-85. Both teams were on back to back spots at the time, but Charlotte's spot was clearly worse. Not only the Bobcats were playing their fourth game in five days, as Utah was playing their third game in four nights but especially they were coming from a huge blowout loss at Atlanta where none of their starters had played more than 29 minutes, while at the same time Charlotte was coming from an overtime game against Toronto and a huge road win at Detroit, where all their key players were on court for more than 35 minutes.
For tonight's game, Utah's rookie PG Trey Burke is banged up with a sore ankle and I believe that this will be a key factor for tonight's match up against Kemba Walker. On the Jazz's win at Charlotte, Burke played well with 7-16 FG, 4-8 3pts, 2-2 FT. 4 assists and zero turnovers! Of course he couldn't defend Walker, who had a big game with 9-16 FG, but at least Burke could compensate his lack of defense with some good offense of his own, something that is unlikely to happen tonight. Utah couldn't produce anything on offense near the basket against Charlotte's elite interior defense with just 12-29 FG at the rim and 32 points in the paint. What saved the Jazz in that game was a rare great outside shooting night with 10-21 3pts!
Considering Charlotte's great interior defense and the edge that Kemba Walker will have against the banged up Trey Burke, I expect Charlotte to be highly competitive tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Bobcats in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Charlotte Bobcats (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 713 Phoenix Suns @ 714 Los Angeles Clippers
Plays #5 & 6
Phoenix has a very peculiar offense which can be divided in some key areas: transitions, pick and roll ball handler plays and spot ups with a lot of treys! On all these three areas, the Suns are a top 10 team in the league! Their A/TO ratios have been sub par and so, when they faced a team like Golden State, whose perimeter defense has been great, the Suns ended the game with 12 assists and 17 turnovers, something that resulted on a blowout loss for them.
Things will be once again very tough for Phoenix's offense tonight, as the Clippers's defense is #2 on pick and roll ball handler plays, #1 on spot ups and #6 on transitions! Therefore, Phoenix will have serious problems in being efficient on their three main areas on offense, as the Clippers's defense is built to stop offenses like the Suns. On the other side, Phoenix's interior defense is their weakest link as they are undersized, so both DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin will have a huge edge down low if they manage to get a high volume of plays down low on offense. Given how both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have been playing lately, I believe this will happen tonight, helping them in getting an easy double digits win tonight. I'm taking the Clippers in here. Considering the struggles that the Suns's offense will have tonight and given the very high totals line, I'll be taking the Under in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 210 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 714 Los Angeles Clippers (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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