NBA - 503 Memphis Grizzlies @ 504 Houston Rockets
Play #2
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
We have great value on the Under due to the kind of match up and pace that this game will have. Memphis keeps trying to adjust after Marc Gasol's injury, but their biggest problem right now is that Mike Conley is also clearly banged up and playing very far from his best conditions. Conley is coming from two good match ups against the NY Knicks and Utah, two terrible perimeter defenses, but he was only able to shoot 4-18 FG and 2-11 FG respectively. Even though they are normally a very poor outside shooting team, Memphis actually shot 11-20 3pts on their last game against the Jazz, but that was due to a stellar performance from their second unit, as their starters struggled from the perimeter once again with 3-10 3pts. This great performance from the second unit was a rare one and I heavily doubt that they will be able to repeat such performance tonight.
Houston is coming from an excellent win at San Antonio yesterday, but of course that took a massive effort from them. Three of their starters played 40 minutes and therefore, a letdown in here seems to be a quite possible outcome. James Harden was key player yesterday, but he should struggle tonight on a tough matchup for him, as he will face Tony Allen, who always defends Harden very well. Now on a back to back spot for a still banged up Harden, who played 42 minutes yesterday, I expect Allen to do once again a good job defending Harden tonight.
But the main reason why I see excellent value on the Under tonight is the potential slow pace of this game. I don't know if it was on purpose or not (perhaps it's just because of Patrick Beverley's absence due to injury), but the Rockets played at a slower pace on their last two games. On the other side, Memphis is last in the league on pace and they are playing slower and slower as the games go by. Memphis's game plan for tonight will be the usual: avoid running the court as much as possible and use Houston's lack of frontcourt depth to pound them down low. However, I don't expect the Grizzlies to be that successful on pounding the Rockets on the down low, as Houston's post up defense is also improving as of late. I expect a slow paced game in here with both teams struggling on offense, so I'll be taking the Under in here on a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 199,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 507 Los Angeles Clippers @ 508 Portland Trailblazers
Play #3
I know that the Clippers will play a back to back game, so tiredness might be a factor in here. However, considering how they lost yesterday's game at Golden State with Blake Griffin being unfairly ejected early in the fourth quarter, I believe the LA team will be fired up for tonight with the bounce back mindset easily overcoming the tired spot. I have no problems in admitting that the Clippers would have won last night's game without Blake's ejection, making me lose the play I had on the Warriors.
The Clippers are a bad match up for the Blazers. I understand that the Blazers have playing great and their offensive strength with LaMarcus Aldridge and their outside shooters is terrific! However, the bad news for Portland is that the Clippers are the best 3pts defense in the league with just 32.4% 3pts allowed! The Clippers' individual defense at the PG position is possible the best in the league with Chris Paul and Darren Collison and so, no wonder that the LA team is #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense. Therefore, Damian Lillard won't have an easy task against Chris Paul and with that, Portland's perimeter shooting should struggle on this match up. Of course the key match up in here will be between Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge, but both players are in great form right now and so, I expect both to play well tonight.
I believe that the team that will generate more easy points down low will have a bigger chance to win this game, as both teams are excellent on 3pts defense. In that way, the Clippers are #11 on defending the paint, while Portland is just #22! Portland has been super clutch at home this season. They won their home games against Indiana, Oklahoma City, Houston and against New Orleans on their last game, but all those games were ballgames where Portland won the game just on the last possessions of the game. I believe that the Blazers might repeat that tonight, but that will give us an excellent spot to take the Clippers plus the points tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Los Angeles Clippers (+4,5) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada
NBA - 501 Atlanta Hawks @ 502 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #1
ATL offense has been great to watch w/ a superb ball movement, high A/TO ratios and great overall shooting. Their game @MIA was a good statement of their ability as a team, even though they lost the game. Tonight’s matchup is extremely favorable for the Hawks as they will explore CLE’s frontcourt lack of speed w/ both Millsap & Horford.
CLE frontline unit is a powerful unit but at the same time, they are slow footed and they are automatically in trouble against post players than can shoot from mid range. In the first h2h of the season, the Hawks crushed the Cavs 108-89! Just look for ATL’s big men numbers: Millsap 7-14 FG, 16 pts, 14 reb & 5 assists in just 27 minutes and Horford 10-19 FG, 22 pts, 9 reb & 4 assists in 31min!
On the other side, CLE offense is still a work in progress and for now, they need Kyrie Irving to do almost everything. They run a lot of Pick n Rolls but the problem is that ATL is a top 10 defensive team defending P&R ball handler plays (Ranked #7), so it won’t be easy for CLE to generate easy points against a disciplined ATL defense.
My fair line for this contest is ATL-6 and that’s why I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Atlanta Hawks (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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