NBA - 505 Philadelphia 76ers @ 506 Detroit Pistons
Play #1
Detroit is coming from a home loss against the Lakers due to a huge late choke by getting outscored 15-29 in the fourth quarter. Defensively, the Pistons got crushed once again via outside shooting. The Lakers didn't even try to attack the rim, they settled for jumpers and with success, as they shot 14-31 3pts, while scoring just 28 points in the paint. Detroit's offense was the complete opposite with an incredible 76 points in the paint and 31-53 FG at the rim! The Pistons also scored 25 fast break points.
The Pistons will now host Philadelphia and this will be a tough matchup for Detroit, especially on defense. The Pistons struggled on their perimeter defense and even though Philadelphia isn't a very efficient team, they attempt a ton of treys plus they have Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes in the frontcourt who shoot a lot from the outside and who will force both Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond to get out of their comfort zone. Of course that on the other side, Detroit will have a mega edge down low against Philadelphia, who is coming from two games where they allowed 60 and 52 points in the paint. Both teams are also in the top 6 regarding fast break points, so this will be an uptempo game with both offenses outplaying the defenses. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 507 Golden State Warriors @ 508 Sacramento Kings
Play #2
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***
Golden State is desperate for a win and they should have won at Oklahoma City on their last week. The good news is that Stephen Curry looks healthy again and he crushed the Thunder's backcourt defense who is normally a very good defense. Only David Lee struggled against Serge Ibaka, but that won't happen today against Sacramento's poor inside defense. The Kings got Derrick Williams from a trade with Minnesota and they immediately inserted him on the starting lineup. If that worked well offensively, the Kings' defense with starters like Greivis Vasquez, Ben McLemore and Derrick Williams is a complete disaster and they will heavily struggle against Golden State's elite offensive backcourt.
The Kings managed to be competitive against the LA Clippers, but they faced the LA team without Chris Paul and with J.J. Redick getting injured early in the game. Yet, they allowed Jamal Crawford to have a huge game with 12-22 FG, 31 points and 11 assists! I believe Sacramento won't stand a chance against the fired up Warriors and so, I'll take Golden State today on a Double Dime Play! Split the wager!
Pick: 2 units on 507 Golden State Warriors (-1) FIRST QUARTER @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline
Pick: 2 units on 507 Golden State Warriors (-4) FULL GAME SPREAD @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 513 New Orleans Pelicans @ 514 New York Knicks
Play #3
The Knicks are coming from another loss, this time at Denver. They actually surprised me by winning the boards battle against a team like Denver. What crushed the Knicks this time was their poor 3pts shooting once again, as after shooting just 3-20 3pts against the Clippers, they shot just 6-22 3pts at Denver and it's tough for the NY team to win games with this poor shooting. Defensively, the Knicks keep heavily struggling against aggressive guards. Ty Lawson had 5-10 FG, 10-12 FT and 8 assists on a very easy matchup for him. Denver's pick and rolls were excellent and easily crushed the Knicks, especially when their starting lineup was on the court.
The NY team will now host New Orleans and the Pelicans are coming from an easy win at Philadelphia, in a game where I took the over by saying that the Pelicans' offense would have a favorable matchup. The Pelicans' offense is based on pick and rolls, spot ups with Ryan Anderson on the floor and a strong transition game due to their guards' quickness. The Knicks' defense struggled in all these three areas by being #28 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #21 on spot up defense and #29 on transition defense. The problems of the Knicks with quick guards will get exposed today as well, as they will face Jrue Holiday and also Tyreke Evans coming off the bench!
On the other side, the Knicks might have finally a good offensive game. The Pelicans don't defend the perimeter well and this has been their main issue for a couple of seasons now. They are just #22 in the league with 37.6% 3pts allowed and with their change in the starting lineup with Anthony Morrow replacing Al-Farouq Aminu, the Pelicans become a better offensive team, but a worse defensive team as well. Therefore, I expect both teams to have a very good offensive performance today and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 196,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Play #4
The Lakers are currently on a nice 5-1 run on their last six games and they are coming back home after a 2-1 road trip in the East. However, they didn't convince a lot, as their five wins came against Golden State (without Stephen Curry and coming from a brutal OT game against Memphis), Detroit (x2), Sacramento (back to back spot for the Kings) and Brooklyn. If we exclude the Warriors who were on a horrible spot, these remaining opponents are #23 (Sacramento), #30 (Brooklyn) and #27 (Detroit) on 3pts defense. On these four games against the three games, the Lakers shot a great 35-87 (40%) 3pts and this was the main factor for their wins. The problem is that Portland's defense is built to defend the 3pts line and this is why they are #1 in the league on 3pts defense with just 32.0% 3pts allowed! Therefore, Portland's defense is a nightmare matchup for the Lakers.
On the other side, Portland saw their winning streak go down the toilet by a blowout loss at Phoenix. The key of that game was Goran Dragic, who torched them with 31 points and 10 assists on 10-18 FG, 4-5 3pts and 7-8 FT! The Lakers don't have an aggressive guard who can attack the ball well off the dribble like Dragic. Phoenix also had Channing Frye and Markieff Morris who were on fire with face up jumpers. The two players shot a combined of 24-38 (63%) FG and the Lakers lack this kind of player on their roster as well. Portland's offense is also outside shooting oriented, but they have more talent. The Blazers are also #4 in the league on offensive rebounding and they will have a clear edge on this area over the subpar rebounding team of the Lakers. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for Portland tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Portland Trailblazers (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment