NBA - 511 Indiana Pacers @ 512 San Antonio Spurs
Play #1
Tiago Splitter is questionable for tonight and with him on the floor, the Spurs defense is much better as his backups are Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw. However, with Splitter off the court, the Spurs' offense is actually improved. San Antonio will host Indiana tonight, who is coming from a win at Utah in another nice defensive performance for them. However, I expect the Pacers' elite defense to struggle against the Spurs tonight. Indiana allowed 100 and 106 points to the Clippers and the Blazers, with the key for that being their opponents having good mid range shooting games, exactly the area where Indiana's defense dares their opponents to shoot from. San Antonio is shooting 43.3% FG from 16-23 feet area on their last six games and so, I expect them to have a good offensive game tonight.
I also believe the Spurs will have an uptempo pace tonight. They have a bench edge over Indiana, so San Antonio only has benefits from playing fast tonight. On the other hand, Indiana's offense has been slowly improving and they dished 25.3 assists per game on their last four games. Indiana's outside shooting is also playing well with 36-81 FG from 16-23 feet on their last four games! This will be important for them over San Antonio's perimeter defense that is their weakest link on defense. Therefore, I believe this game will actually be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
NBA - 501 Denver Nuggets @ 502 Philadelphia 76ers
Play #2
Denver is coming from a loss at Boston, where they had a terrible start of the game. Their offense was terrible with even some missed dunks, while the defense was non-existent. Then, after being down by more than 20 points early in the game, the Nuggets made a comeback and they were just 3 points down in the third quarter, but they just couldn't win at the end. It looks like Coach Brian Shaw was so pissed by his team's performance in the first half that he didn't even go to the locker room at half time! The Nuggets will be on the worst possible spot tonight, as they will play their fourth game in five days, while being also on a back to back spot. They are 0-3 this season on this spot with losses at Portland, Houston and Cleveland, but the good news is that Denver used 10 players yesterday and all of them played at least 15 minutes.
On the other side, Philadelphia lost at Charlotte last night, but the Sixers didn't rotate their players like Denver did. In fact, Evan Turner played 40 minutes and Tony Wroten 35 minutes, so they may struggle tonight on a back to back uptempo game. Denver will be like fish on water on the Sixers' fast tempo pace. Philadelphia is #2 on transition volume, while Denver is #6. However, Philadelphia is #29 on efficiency in this kind of play with 0.98 PPP, while Denver is #10 with 1.13 PPP! On these last two games, Denver's frontcourt was outplayed and their post up defense has been struggling lately, however Philadelphia is the wrong team to explore that. The Sixers shoot a lot of treys per game, but with little efficiency, while Denver will also have a rebound edge tonight that will allow them to run in transition quite a lot in here. Therefore, I believe in a strong bounce back spot for the Nuggets tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Denver Nuggets (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Los Angeles Clippers @ 504 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #3
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Cleveland is coming from a clear loss at Atlanta last night, where even though Andrew Bynum and Dion Waiters had nice offensive games, the team's starting backcourt formed by Kyrie Irving, C.J. Miles and Alonzo Gee shot 1-19 FG and ruined the team's chances of winning the game. On the other hand, both Al Horford and Paul Millsap used their mobility to make some mid range shots that helped the Hawks in getting the easy win last night. On this sense, Cleveland won't have this problem against the Clippers tonight, as only Blake Griffin can create some danger with his mid range shot but nothing even closer to the level of Millsap and Horford.
The Clippers are coming from a nice win at Memphis, with a stellar defensive effort, as they allowed just 81 points. They crushed the Grizzlies via pick and rolls, while having also a nice 11-20 3pts game. However, note that their starting lineup shot just 3-8 3pts, which shows that their starters' outside shooting keeps struggling. Kyrie Irving will try to bounce back tonight, but he will face Chris Paul. I believe Irving will force to create some offense on his own, but he will also need to be more active on defense and this will remove him some energy that he generally uses on offense. I believe this game is going to be a relatively low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 198,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 507 Miami Heat @ 508 Minnesota Timberwolves
Plays #4 & 5
This isn't a great spot for Minnesota, as even though they had five days off between games, they traveled into Mexico to play a game that never happened. For tonight's game, they will playing without Kevin Love and the team's offensive numbers without him are horrible, with an average rating of 86.9, while with him the team is averaging an offensive rating of 113.1! With Love out, Dante Cunningham and Luc Mbah a Moute will play at the PF position and they are defensive specialists.
Minnesota will need to use a lot of pick and rolls tonight and their gameplan will be involving Nikola Pekovic as much as possible on offense given the problems Miami had in defending Detroit's and Chicago's powerful frontcourts. Miami is #1 in the league on pick and roll defense, so I don't expect Minnesota to have a big offensive game tonight. On the other hand, Miami has been struggling to be consistent on offense throughout the whole game, while Chris Bosh is struggling, just like their outside shooters. Therefore, I believe this game won't be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. I also believe Miami will bounce back nicely after two losses in a row and so, I'll be taking them in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Miami Heat (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 Detroit Pistons @ 510 Chicago Bulls
Play #6
Chicago is coming from an excellent home win over Miami, where they shot well from 3pts and defend also really well. They aren't even attempting to go in transition anymore and everything is done on half court sets for them now. The Bulls were coming from two awful defensive games, where they were crushed by the Cavaliers down low and by the Pelicans' outside shooting and transitions. However, they bounced back defensively against the Heat.
Detroit has won their last three wins and after a mega win at Miami, they won at Milwaukee as well. The key for this good run has been their great rebounding with a 57.5, 59.3, 55.0 and 56.1 rebound rate over their last four games! They keep struggling on their outside shooting, but they are shooting a lot near the basket and with that, they are scoring a lot of easy points, with an average of 59 points in the paint over their last four games!
We have in here two similar teams, who struggle on outside shooting, so they need to create easy points down low and this won't be easy for them tonight. Chicago is allowing just 57% FG at the rim this season, while Detroit are #1 on post up defense with just 0.65 PPP allowed! The last game between these two teams ended with Chicago winning by 99-79, in a game where the Pistons struggled to score down low with just 42 points in the paint and without a lot of efficiency, with several turnovers and poor outside shooting. Chicago managed to have a good offensive game due to a rare good outside shooting game with 13-18 FG from 16-23 feet! They are just shooting 35.6% FG for the season on this area, so I don't believe they will repeat these numbers tonight. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 515 Sacramento Kings @ 516 Utah Jazz
Play #7
Utah had no chance against Portland last night. I said that Utah with Burke as their starting PG was being more competitive via offense, while their perimeter defense was struggling and indeed it struggled last night by allowing Portland to shoot a ridiculous 17-23 3pts! Given the blowout loss, Utah didn't have anybody playing heavy minutes yesterday, but I don't think this poor defense will improve in the near future. Since they got Derrick Williams via trade, Sacramento has also improved on offense and regressed on defense. Their perimeter shooting has also improved with 9-19, 10-29 and 10-22 3pts on their last three games, while Isaiah Thomas gives the team a lot of explosion coming off the bench.
As I mentioned Sacramento's defense is regressing with defensive rates of 110.11, 110.23, 120.18, 102.27 and 115.11 on their last five games. Sacramento with their slow footed backcourt defense is struggling and Utah's offense should take advantage of this tonight. I see both teams having good offensive games tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 517 Dallas Mavericks @ 518 Portland Trail Blazers
Play #8
This is a matchup that will clearly help this game to be a high scoring one. Dallas is a terrible defensive rebounding team, so Portland will immediately have an important edge in here. Then, the matchup between LaMarcus Aldridge and Dirk Nowitzki is favorable to both offenses. Portland has been showing an excellent inside-out game, with LaMarcus Aldridge dominating on the inside and their outside shooters being great as well. Oklahoma City and Indiana have a lot more athleticism than Dallas and still allowed 106 and 111 points to the Blazers!
On the other side, Portland's defense is similar in style to Indiana's defense by allowing their opponents to shoot from mid range, an area where Dallas shoot the ball really well with 44% FG from 10-15 feet and 42% FG from 16-23 feet! Therefore, I believe this game will be a super high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Over 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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