NBA Premium Card 12/05

NBA - 501 New York Knicks @ 502 Brooklyn Nets

Play #1

This is a game between two ridiculous Eastern teams that had high expectations for this season. For tonight, I believe the Knicks have better conditions to pound the Nets than the opposite. Brooklyn have Brook Lopez back and he is the only consistent player on the team's offense, but he needs some time to get back into his top form after an injury lay-off. However, Brooklyn is forcing a lot to try to feed Lopez down low. This is why the Nets had 22.9% and 24.8% volume of post ups on their last two games. They had efficient numbers on this play, but their offensive flow keeps being awful.

This is actually good news for the Knicks' defense that is a nice post up defensive team by being #6 in the league with 0.76 PPP allowed. Andrea Bargnani isn't a weak individual defender, even though he is terrible on awareness and team help defense. The Knicks struggles on defending transition plays and they are coming from allowing 19 fast break points from the Pelicans, while their team help defense keeps struggling and so, they keep getting pounded by the opposing aggressive guards. However, they will be on a nice spot tonight, as Brooklyn is #29 in the league on fast break points with just 9.3 per game, while Deron Williams is still out and that will be a relief for the Knicks' guards.

On the other side, Brooklyn's perimeter defense has been awful and they are #30 on pick and roll defense and #28 on spot up defense. The Knicks have been inconsistent on outside shooting this season, but the Nets will give them enough conditions for them to a nice outside game tonight. Therefore, I believe the Knicks have the better matchups to win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 New York Knicks ML @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

NBA - 503 Los Angeles Clippers @ 504 Memphis Grizzlies

Play #2

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The Clippers indeed struggled on outside shooting with J.J. Redick at Atlanta last night, where they shot 4-19 3pts, while the Hawks decided to pack the paint and force the Clippers to beat them from the outside. The LA team was torched on the outside by Kyle Korver who shot 6-9 3pts on his own! Atlanta was indeed super efficient on outside shooting with 12-23 3pts and surprisingly, their frontcourt completely outplayed the Clippers' frontline, with Al Horford shooting 8-17 FG and Paul Millsap 12-20 FG! Both players have good mid range shooting and they torched the Clippers with those shots.

The good news for the Clippers tonight is that Memphis doesn't have this ability to spread the floor, shoot treys and have frontcourt players with a solid mid range game. Memphis is coming from a game where they crushed Phoenix's undersized frontcourt, even though they were playing without Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph: Ed Davis shot 8-11 FG, while Kostas Koufos shot 7-12 FG and Jon Leuer 10-13 FG! On the other hand, the Grizzlies' poor perimeter defense will have some edge tonight against the struggling outside shooting of the Clippers.

On the other side, the Clippers will have a more favorable matchup than they had at Atlanta. The key will be on the interior defense, but DeAndre Jordan will have a much easier task in defending Memphis's physical frontcourt than he had against the mobile Al Horford. The last game between these two teams had 208 points, as Marc Gasol had a monster game with 23 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals, but he is out for tonight. Both teams combined 62 FT attempts and 27 offensive rebounds, something that is very hard to be repeated tonight. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 505 Miami Heat @ 506 Chicago Bulls 

Play #3

Since they lost Derrick Rose for the season, Chicago has been playing at a slower pace, similar to the pace they had on last season's games. On their last two games, their defense was subpar and this was why they lost against the Cavaliers and the Pelicans. Andrew Bynum outplayed Joakim Noah and on the Bulls' last game, they couldn't stop Ryan Anderson and the Pelicans' outside shooting squad that shot 11-23 3pts.

Miami is coming from a home loss against Detroit at home, where they were crushed on the boards and allowed 60 points in the paint. Of course Chicago will try a similar gameplan tonight. Miami has been inconsistent on their outside shooting especially on their mid range shooting, where they are just shooting 33% FG from 16-23 feet over their last five games. Defensively, they are now better than at the start of the season. Those 60 points in the paint allowed against Detroit was a season high, but I believe that Chicago won't have the same ability that Detroit showed to pound the Heat down low, as their guards aren't as skilled offensively as the Pistons's guards. Therefore, I expect a slow paced game in here, with both defenses outplaying the offenses and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada