Play #5
For the first time this season, the Bobcats scored over 100 points in b2b games! It helped the fact that they faced two up tempo teams in PHI & GSW, so they could generate some extra possessions, but still having an Off.Rtg of 110.5 and 112.2 is a sign of some improvement on the offensive end. Bismack Biyombo and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are OUT due to injuries and we are talking about two of their best defensive players. Without MKG, Charlotte will now give some minutes to Anthony Tolliver and Ben Gordon and on an offensive standpoint, it will help them to spread better the floor because MKG can’t really shoot from the outside. CHA went 6-12 behind the line against the Warriors and not coincidentally, 3 of their made treys were converted from Tolliver and Gordon. The Magic is a good matchup for this Bobcats offense. Kemba Walker will face Jameer Nelson who really won’t have a chance to stop his dribble penetration and when Walker has a good game, the Bobcats are extremely competitive.
Orlando is struggling offensively as of late. In 5 of their last 6 games they couldn't even reach the 100 points per possession mark. They just can’t score inside without Nikola Vucevic while their outside shooting is super inconsistent. L5 games they are shooting 33-117 behind the line – an awful 28% mark! Fortunately for them, Vucevic is probable to return tonight and so, I believe Orlando will be able to have a decent offensive game in here. Therefore, I expect this game to be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
NBA - 705 San Antonio Spurs @ 706 Milwaukee Bucks
Play #6
San Antonio gave a lesson of offensive basketball to Toronto last night. They moved the ball and attempted open shot after open shot, while having 30 assists, 50 points in the paint and a nice 13-23 3pts! Gregg Popovich rotated the team well and nobody played over 30 minutes and so, the Spurs are confident and rested to destroy the subpar defensive team of Milwaukee. With Larry Sanders still out, the Bucks don't have a player who can protect the rim, while their team help defense is very weak as well.
Milwaukee's offense now with John Henson has gained some skills to score near the basket. He had a great game at Chicago last night with 11-17 FG and 25 points. With Tiago Splitter out, I believe Henson should have another good performance tonight. San Antonio has been struggling in guarding outside shooters this season and Milwaukee with O.J. Mayo, Ersan Ilyasova and Brandon Knight will have some good look tonight. I believe San Antonio's up tempo game will explore their depth edge in here over a tired and shorthanded Bucks team. Looking at the low totals line, I believe that we have a nice spot to take the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 191.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 717 Dallas Mavericks @ 718 Golden State Warriors
Play #7
This isn't a good spot for the Warriors considering that they return home after a 3-game road trip that finished @CHA. To make things worse, they are really shorthanded right now and Coach Mark Jackson doesn't trust his 2nd unit. It was weird to watch Step Curry playing 45 minutes for GSW in a blowout win @MEM and in their last game @CHA, 4 of their starters logged for at least 40 minutes! Their offense has been great with the exception of a bad game @HOU, but the same cannot be said about their defense. Their team help defense concept is flawed without Andre Iguodala because David Lee just can’t defend and once the opposing guard gets past GSW’s guard, it usually means an easy shot at the rim.
Meanwhile the Mavericks were not ready and prepared to face this new-look Kings team. Having Isaiah Thomas and DeMarcus Cousins against Jose Calderon and DeJuan Blair was a complete mismatch favoring the Kings and they really took advantage of it: Cousins finished the game with 10-17 FG, 12-14 FT, 32 points and 19 rebounds while Thomas had 24 points and 12 assists. Coach Carlisle tried everything – he put 5 different lineups in the first quarter, but the gap of speed and explosiveness between the two teams were too much for the Mavs.
Unlike the Kings, the Warriors are a “better” matchup for the Mavs. Andrew Bogut won’t abuse DeJuan Blair down low like Cousins did while we are in front of two “jump shooting” teams. Somehow this game reminds me the game between the Blazers and the Mavericks and I expect this contest to be a tight game. GSW’s bad spot and lack of depth will work against them in here. Last h2h game ended up w/ Dallas winning by 4 points at home, but with 7min to go the score was DAL 97 GSW 80! I'll be taking Dallas tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Dallas Mavericks (+5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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NBA - 715 Utah Jazz @ 716 Sacramento Kings
Play #1 & 2
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
I really have major doubts about this Rudy Gay deal working favorably for the Kings on the long term but on the short term, I Expect the Kings to dominate the Jazz tonight. Apparently Gay will start replacing Jason Thompson on the starting lineup, but I don’t think he will get many touches on the ball early on. Like in their last game against the Mavericks, the Kings only need to “unleash” Isaiah Thomas and D. Cousins and the Jazz will be in deep trouble.
The Jazz defense (especially since rookie Burke is starting) is simply awful against aggressive and creative guards, the fact that they are ranked #29 defending Pick and Rolls ball handler players says it all. They also are the worst defensive team in the league defending post up plays allowing 0.98 PPP.
These two teams faced each other last Saturday and the Kings won a tight game only in overtime. However note that: 1) Greivis Vasquez was still in the team and played 21 minutes while shooting 1-5 FG, Thomas coming off the bench completely destroyed the Jazz perimeter defense w/ 8-14 FG, 9-10 FT, 26 pts, 8 assists and 4 steals in just 32 minutes of the game and 2) D. Cousins’ foul trouble in the first half limited him to play just 7min (2-5 FG for 5 pts). In the 2nd half + OT, he completely destroyed Kanter w/ 10-15 FG, 8-10 FT, 28 points in just 27 minutes played!
With Cousins playing his regular minutes and with Thomas doing some serious damage since the start of the game, the Jazz defense really won’t have a good defensive performance tonight. SAC defense w/ this new look will struggle as well but their edge on offense will be too much in my opinion. Last game against the Mavericks was by far the fastest paced game of the season for the Kings and this a clear sign for me that they will push the tempo even more so I’m taking the Over in here as my Top Play while I expect the Kings to win by double digit points.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 Sacramento Kings (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 Philadelphia 76ers @ 710 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #3
Yesterday I took Minnesota to win at Detroit for an easy win, as the Wolves with their uptempo game completely explored Detroit's lack of speed in the front with 10-13 FG on cuts for a nhice 1.57 PPP! The Wolves also created nice look on the outside and Kevin Love was the key for that with 4-6 3pts! Minnesota is a great offensive team to watch whenever they are efficient from long range and last night was the case! Minnesota will now host Philadelphia and so, this game will involve a lot of running. After all, we are talking about two of the fastest paced teams in the league. Philadelphia's defense won't be able to stop Minnesota down low, on transition and on 3pts shooting! I took the Over on the Sixers' last game and I lost big, but it wasn't because suddenly the Sixers started to defend well. In fact, it was because the Clippers couldn't hit a single outside shot with a terrible 1-10 on corner treys!
Philadelphia is indeed struggling to be effective on long range with a combined of 12-64 (19%) 3pts on their last three games! However, they have a good transition game and know how to attack the rim well, two areas where Minnesota's defense struggles, as they are #25 in the league with 15.2 fast break points allowed per game and #27 in points in the paint allowed with 45.7! So, this is also a good spot for a decent offensive game from Philadelphia! Minnesota is coming from a nice win and they will score so easily today that they will relax on defense, turning this game into a very high scoring contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 703 Los Angeles Clippers @ 704 Boston Celtics
Play #4
The Celtics just couldn't stop Brook Lopez last night that absolutely owned the Celtics' entire frontcourt: 10-13 from the field, 4-5 FT for 24 points and a team high +/- +18 in 37 minutes of action. This Celtics defense is built to stop opponents from scoring easy points down low but with Lopez dominating them, the Celtics were forced to over help and by doing that, they were also exposed from the outside. Still we have to give them some credit because they always fought hard and avoided this contest to be a blowout loss.
Meanwhile the Clippers defeated the 76ers on the road by double digits points, but I didn't’t like their performance at all. In that game I had the Overand the play never had a chance to cash. I expected the Clippers to finally have a good outside shooting game against an awful perimeter defense team but the Clippers continued to struggle: 5-27 from 3 pts! They are now 31-116 26% 3pts L5 games! The lack of depth is a real problem for the Clippers especially @SF position as Jared Dudley was forced to play 39 minutes last game!
I think the Celtics will be a tough matchup for the Clippers. Chris Paul had a field day against Tony Wroten in his last game, but this won’t be the case tonight against Avery Bradley. Obviously Blake Griffin will dominate the Celtics bad interior defense but the Clippers without hitting their outside shots are vulnerable because they aren't a good defensive team. The aggressiveness of Bradley, Crawford and Green will be problematic for the LAC backcourt lack of speed, just note that Evan Turner had 11-23 FG, 25 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists against them! I believe this game will be a relatively low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 196.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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