NBA Premium Card 12/18

NBA - 701 Indiana Pacers @ 702 Miami Heat

Play #4

NOTE: No write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 709 Detroit Pistons @ 710 Boston Celtics

Play #5

Detroit is coming from their best win of the season at Indiana and before that, they had deserved to beat Portland, so the Pistons are coming from two great games against elite teams. They have been absolutely dominating the boards with 59.38%, 53.00% and 52.71% rebound rate on their last three games. They are also committing less turnovers, their post up game has been very solid, with Josh Smith scoring over 30 points in back to back games with solid post ups and no poor jumpers. 

Therefore, I believe Boston's defense will struggle in here. They are just #23 on defensive rebounding with 73.4% and recently against good offensive rebounding teams, they struggled with 19 offensive rebounds allowed to Minnesota, 15 against Denver, 13 against Cleveland and even 9 against Memphis! Boston's interior defense has been having problems lately as well by allowing 67% FG at the rim over their last four games. Their post up defense has been also sub par with Brandon Bass and Jared Sullinger on the front court together with 1.03 PPP allowed over their last seven games! So, this is definitely an excellent spot for Detroit's offense!

Boston's offense has been struggling with sub par 3pts shooting performances with 6-17, 7-21 and 7-21 3pts over their last three games. They are having a lot of volume on post ups and in fact they are #4 in the league on volume on this kind of play with 13.7%, while being #11 on PPP with 0.85! These are bad news for them, as Detroit's defense is a specialist on post up defense where they are #1 in the league! They are so good that even Roy Hibbert struggled big time against them with 2-12 FG and 6 points! The key player on Boston's last two wins was Sullinger with 7-14 FG, 9-11 FT, 24 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists against Minnesota and 6-9 FG, 7-7 FT, 19 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists against the NY Knicks. With Sullinger struggling against Detroit's great interior defense, the Celtics' offense will struggle as their outside shooting game has been far from sharp lately. This is an excellent overall match up for the Pistons and so, I'll be taking them in here tonight for another nice road win.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Detroit Pistons (+1) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline

NBA - 719 San Antonio Spurs @ 720 Phoenix Suns

Plays #6 & 7

Phoenix has been playing very well lately with good offense due to three key factors: back court play with Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic; a terrific transition game; a sharp outside shooting with their bigs being very well lately. However, the Suns's A/TO ratios have been disappointing lately. They scored 116 and 106 points on their last two games, but they had just 20/17 and 17/12 A/TO ratios for a modest 48.8% and 48.6% assist rate!  

On the other side, San Antonio won't have Tony Parker tonight, so Cory Joseph will likely start at the PG position. Joseph is a big physical guard who isn't athletic like Bledsoe for example, but he is a good defense who won't allow Bledsoe to just drive by him. The Spurs are coming from a sloppy offensive game where they committed 22 turnovers against the Clippers that originated 37 points to the LA team. Gregg Popovich was so pissed by that that he benched Danny Green at the start of the second half after back to back stupid turnovers. On the other hand, San Antonio's transition defense keeps being an elite unit by being #8 in the league with 1.07 PPP allowed, so I don't expect Phoenix's transition game to work very well tonight.

Phoenix's defense has been excellent against jump shooting teams with their aggressive perimeter defense. This is why they are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU against Portland for example. Even at San Antonio, they lost just by 3 points with Tony Parker having a huge game with a 9-15 FG, 20 points and 6/1 A/TO performance. By the way, Goran Dragic didn't play that game. Without Parker, the Spurs lose a lot of their offensive flow with Manu Ginobili being forced to be the team's PG in a lot of possessions. Therefore, I see this game being a relatively low scoring one with the Suns being very dangerous home underdogs in here, so I'll be taking both Phoenix and the Under tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 720 Phoenix Suns (+4) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

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NBA - 711 Washington Wizards @ 712 Brooklyn Nets

Play #1

Brooklyn has Brook Lopez as a game time decision for tonight, but with Deron Williams healthy, their offense has nothing to do with their putrid span when Deron was out. They are pushing the pace more and their ball movement is also being better. On their first 22 games of the season, they had just made +10 treys in a game twice, but they shot 12-23 and 21-35 3pts on their last two games! Washington's poor interior defense will be well explored by Brooklyn's frontcourt.

On the other side, Washington with Bradley Beal and Nene Hilario back is a Top 4 on the East material. They're a great 3pts shooting team, especially with Beal and they will take advantage of Brooklyn's main weakness on defense: their perimeter defense as their veteran lineup is very slow in rotating. Brooklyn had the privilege to face an awful perimeter shooting team like the Sixers, who shot just 8-30 3pts against them. On the other hand, Washington on their last game already with Beal back shot 11-18 3pts. Therefore, I expect a very high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this game tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 196 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA - 703 Utah Jazz @ 704 Orlando Magic

Play #2

Utah had no chance at Miami, just like I predicted by taking both the Heat and the Over. Offensively, the Jazz managed to score near the basket with 58 points in the paint, with both Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors having good games, but they heavily struggled on the back court. Utah relies on pick and rolls via Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke, but they faced Miami's great ball pressuring defense that is #1 on pick and roll ball handler defense and also #1 in forcing turnovers. This made Utah's main two guards to combine 3-16 FG, 6 assists and 5 turnovers! Thanks to this, Utah shot just 5-18 3pts! It was a tough match up for them and so, they struggled as expected. Defensively, Utah's poor perimeter defense was explored by Miami with a huge match up edge on LeBron James who did whatever he wanted to do with 13-17 FG and 9 assists.

The good news for today is that Utah will now face an Orlando defense that isn't aggressive against ball handlers by being just #26 on creating turnovers and #21 on pick and roll ball handler defense. The Magic's interior defense is also sub par, so this is definitely a good spot for Utah's offense. Orlando's spot for tonight isn't good, as they had back to back games at Oklahoma City and at Chicago, where they were competitive. Thanks to that, coach Vaughn used a short rotation. The Magic's 3pts shooting has been struggling lately with just 32.6% over the last 10 games. They have no talent to explore Utah's bad perimeter defense. The Jazz's defense has been horrible, but they are coming from facing Miami, San Antonio, Denver, Sacramento, Portland, Sacramento, Indiana, Houston and Phoenix twice in a row! Not easy at all! Now against a much easier opponent, I expect Utah to be highly competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Utah Jazz (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 715 Portland Trail Blazers @ 716 Minnesota Timberwolves

Play #3

This is a terrible physical spot for Portland, as they will play their fourth game in five nights. They are coming from an emotional win last night at Cleveland that was just decided on the last second. This is also Portland's final game of this road trip and the truth is that they are struggling a bit on tough spots this season, as for example they are shooting 37.8% 3pts on back to back games this season, while they are shooting 42.6% 3pts on rested spots. This is perfectly normal for a jump shooting team that is also a great offensive rebounding team as well. In tired legs spots, these two factors suffer a lot with the lack of fresh legs.

Thanks to Portland's poor physical spot, it seems possible that Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic will have some edges tonight, but for Minnesota it is essential that they have good outside shooting games. However, the Blazers are an elite 3pts defensive team and with Kevin Martin banged up, only Kevin Love seems to be healthy and capable of making some consistent treys, as Ricky Rubio, Corey Brewer, Luc Mbah a Moute and Alexey Shved aren't good outside shooters. Therefore, I just don't see this game being a super high scoring game at all due to Portland's spot in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this game tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Under 213 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker