NBA - 501 Orlando Magic @ 502 Philadelphia 76ers
Plays #1 & 2
Orlando had a complete no show yesterday at Washington, who once again struggled with their second unit. Glen Davis was completely inefficient, while Nikola Vucevic got injured mid-game. Orlando struggled with the ball handling with 18 turnovers and Jameer Nelson's absence was a considerable blow for them on this area, as Victor Oladipo played at their primary PG and they struggled.
These two teams faced each other recently and I took Philadelphia in that game, as Orlando was in a bad spot and Philadelphia would have a clear backcourt edge with Michael Carter-Williams over Jameer Nelson. However, that game was marked with the huge mismatch that Orlando had on frontcourt against a Sixers defense that really missed Spencer Hawes. Orlando had 52 points in the paint, with Glen Davis, Nikola Vucevic and Andrew Nicholson shooting a combined of 24-35 (68%) FG and grabbing 26 rebounds. However, Vucevic is likely out for tonight, while Hawes will play, so Orlando won't have the same frontcourt edge tonight.
Philadelphia is coming from two games where they got crushed by New Orleans and Detroit, where they allowed 121 and 115 points. These two teams are elite transition teams and they exposed the Sixers with 25 and 20 fast break points. While the Pelicans and the Pistons are ranked #4 and #3 respectively on volume in transition plays, Orlando is just #22 in the league on this area, so Philadelphia's defense will have a better matchup today to make a defensive bounce back. With the Sixers being focused to make a defensive bounce back tonight and with Orlando's frontcourt missing Vucevic deeply, I believe this won't be the typical wild game involving the Sixers and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. As I expect Philadelphia to have a good matchup and spot to get revenge over Orlando, I'll be also taking the Sixers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 206.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Philadelphia 76ers (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Detroit Pistons @ 504 Miami Heat
Play #3
Miami is coming from a tough home win against Charlotte. The Bobcats made some nice adjustments from their blowout loss against Miami earlier in the season by making quick decisions on pick and rolls in order to avoid Miami's traps from being effective. On the other hand, Charlotte's interior defense is excellent and that "forced" Chris Bosh to have a big game from the outside, with him scoring 13 points in a row down the stretch! On the other side, Detroit is coming from an easy home win over Philadelphia. Detroit is like fish on water on fast paced games, as they can use their excellent transition game. This is why they scored 25 and 20 fast break points on their last two games against the Lakers and the Sixers respectively. At the same time, Detroit also created a lot of easy shots down low, with Andre Drummond being the highlight.
I believe tonight's game will be different from Detroit's game against the Sixers. Miami is coming from four games where they faced relatively weak perimeter defenses (Phoenix #13 on spot up defense, Cleveland #17, Toronto #7 and Charlotte #27), while Detroit is #4 in the league on spot up defense! On the other side, Detroit will struggle in putting the ball in nice conditions down low, as Miami is an undersized team who rotates pretty quickly on defense. This is why the Heat is #5 in the league on rim protection with just 58% FG allowed! The Pistons also continue to be very inconsistent on their perimeter shooting, so I don't believe that they will have a good offensive game tonight. I believe this totals line is set too high and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 507 Denver Nuggets @ 508 Brooklyn Nets
Play #4
Brooklyn finally managed a win on their last game at Memphis against the shorthanded Grizzlies. Jason Kidd put Tyshawn Taylor at the PG position, while Alan Anderson played at the SG position and Brook Lopez was on court for considerable minutes for the first time since his come back from injury. Defensively, Brooklyn had their same problems as usual, as they were too slow to stop the opposing guards on pick and rolls and so, Memphis shot 7-12 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.89 PPP. The Nets also struggled in transition by allowing 14 fast break points with 1.17 PPP, while Memphis even shot 7-15 3pts, something rare for them! Even though Brooklyn's offense continues to be very predictable, Brook Lopez makes them a dangerous team on the inside and they took advantage of Marc Gasol's and Zach Randolph's absences to use Brook Lopez a lot on post ups to lead them to a nice road win.
On the other side, Denver is coming from a nice road win at Toronto, where their bench played extremely well, with Nate Robinson leading the team in points with 23, Darrell Arthur shooting 7-7 FG and Timofey Mozgov having 16 points and a career-high 15 rebounds! For tonight's game, I believe Denver will have a brutal edge in terms of speed over Brooklyn, especially looking at the matchup between Ty Lawson and the Brooklyn's slow footed defense. The Nuggets' pick and roll game will also work, as Brooklyn has no motor to hang with Denver! So, the key in here is to know if Brooklyn's frontcourt and their post up game will also have a clear upper hand over Denver's defense. The Nuggets' post up defense is #12 in the league with 0.80 PPP allowed and even though J.J. Hickson and Kenneth Faried may struggle a bit against Brooklyn's frontcourt, I believe that Brian Shaw will then put on court Darrell Arthur and Timofey Mozgov, who are much better defenders. This is why Hickson and Faried played just 17 + 20 minutes at Toronto, while Arthur and Mozgov played 23 + 31 minutes! Therefore, I expect an easy win for Denver tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Denver Nuggets (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 Phoenix Suns @ 510 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #5
Memphis will be once again without both Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph for tonight. They already played their last game without both players and that caused a huge change in the team's offense. They are the team that has the biggest volume of post ups in the league with about 17%, but they had just 2% volume against the Nets! Their offensive game was perimeter based and in fact, they shot a quite decent 7-15 3pts! However, their starting lineup shot a combined of 0-2 3pts, something that shows the poor floor spacing of the team! It also needs to be mentioned that they were facing the awful perimeter defense of the Nets!
For tonight's game, we need to check Phoenix's perimeter defense, as Memphis won't naturally put a lot of focus on their frontcourt. The Suns are coming from a home loss against Utah, in a game where they came to the court on a relaxed mode, after easily beating the same Jazz at Utah the night before. The Suns' offense keeps being good, but Utah's defense also helped them with poor perimeter defense. However, it was on defense that the Suns lost that game due to lack of effort.
“Just shows they just come out and thought they were going to outscore them” Jeff Hornacek said of his players. “You can never give a team easy shots, easy buckets early in the game. That usually transfers up throughout. They don’t want to listen to it” Hornacek added. “Coaches are telling them they’ve got to be ready. That’s what happens.”
The key matchup in here will be between Mike Conley and Eric Bledsoe. It won't be easy for Conley to have success on offense tonight, so I expect Memphis's offense to struggle tonight. Memphis with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph would have a huge edge down low against Phoenix, but without them that won't happen, as Ed Davis and Kostas Koufos aren't a big offensive threat. On the other side, Phoenix's outside shooting will be a problem for Memphis, who keeps struggling on their perimeter defense, but they are also quite inconsistent. I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 511 Charlotte Bobcats @ 512 Dallas Mavericks
Play #6
This is an interesting duel, as both offenses will have in theory clear edges over the opposing defenses. Charlotte's offense is limited due to their poor outside shooting ability. However, they are decent against poor pick and roll defensive teams who also struggle on protecting the rim and that have to foul a lot! These are the areas where Charlotte's offense excels and where Dallas's defense struggles, so the Bobcats should have a nice offensive game tonight.
However, Dallas's offense will have a clear edge over Charlotte's defense, as the Bobcats are built to stop the opposing teams from scoring easy on the down low against them. They are in fact #1 in the league on paint defense with just 33.7 ppg allowed. However, Dallas's offense doesn't attack the paint and prefers to jump shoot the whole time! Charlotte is a subpar perimeter defensive team with 38.2% 3pts allowed and Dallas is full of good shooters to take advantage of that, as they are #3 in the league on spot up offense! Therefore, I expect a good offensive game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this game tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 513 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 514 Sacramento Kings
Play #7
Sacramento with their new starting lineup seems to be weaker on defense, especially with Mbah a Moute leaving the lineup and the team and being replaced by Derrick Williams, who came from Minnesota. This is why they had poor defensive ratings of 110.1, 110.2 and 120.2 over their last three games! It keeps being too easy to score against the Kings down low due to their poor block shooting ability and a terrible pick and roll defense, an area where Russell Westbrook will crush Greivis Vasquez and Isaiah Thomas tonight.
Oklahoma City is coming from a home span, where they won all their games, while facing good opposition like the LA Clippers, San Antonio and Golden State. Their defense has been playing well against these top teams and in fact they were #4 in the league on 3pts defense with 33.2% allowed over their last 10 games. However, the Thunder have a big game at Portland tomorrow and on this relax spot for them, I believe they will allow Sacramento to have a nice offensive game in here, especially due to the fact that they have a good offensive minded second unit. Therefore, I expect a very good offensive game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 515 Toronto Raptors @ 516 Golden State Warriors
Play #8
Toronto continues to struggle on offense due to their lack of flow. They scored 98 points against Denver, but had just 18 assists! Their transition game also seems to be gone and with Tyler Hansbrough on the lineup now, this doesn't help the Raptors' offense due to his poor passing and overall offense skills. What saved the Raptors against Denver from an even bigger loss was Rudy Gay having a rare decent shooting game with 10-23 FG!
Golden State has been struggling lately, but they have been facing top teams after top teams. They have little depth and their frontcourt is struggling by getting constantly outplayed by their opponents. On their last game, DeMarcus Cousins had 10-13 FG and 4-5 FT in just 21 minutes, while Patrick Patterson had 8-8 FG, 18 points and 7rebounds! Then, Serge Ibaka also crushed David Lee with 6-11 FG, 6-8 FT, 18 points, 13 rebounds and 4 blocks, while even Dirk Nowitzki had 11-19 FG and 22 points against the Warriors! Today, Golden State's interior defense will get some rest, as Toronto's frontcourt lacks offensive skills and the backcourt doesn't feed them well anyway due to their terrible offensive flow.
The Warriors' win at Sacramento was almost exclusively due to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who combined 24-43 FG and 13-19 3pts! Of course they were facing the #28 team in the league on 3pts defense, while Toronto will be a much tougher opponent on this area by being #9 in the league with 34.9% 3pts allowed! Therefore, I don't expect this game to be a very high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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