NBA - 501 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 502 Boston Celtics
Play #1
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Celtics had 5 days to rest and think about their recent losses. For me it was clear that the main culprit of those 3 losses was their bad defense, as they have allowed their opponents to have 112, 115 and 114 Defensive Rtg. There were 2 big factors: 1) Bad transition defense by allowing 22, 23 and 15 fast break points and 2) bad interior defense by allowing 52, 44 and 50 points in the paint, even though I understand those bad numbers b/c they have faced DET, IND and WAS – all teams with skilled big men. Head Coach Stevens surely addressed those flaws during this long break.
For today, I expect the Celtics to bounce back defensively as the Cavaliers are a “good” matchup for their defense. The Cavs are coming from a home loss against ATL in which they really didn’t feed the post in that game. It was all about Kyrie Irving & Waiters doing work on the perimeter! The problem is that the Celtics actually have a pretty good perimeter defense and Avery Bradley will be a tough matchup for Irving. Note that the Celtics are a top 10 team defending P&R’s ball handler plays and actually they are ranked #4 vs. spot up plays. With Irving having a tough time to create offense, the Cavs don’t generate the proper looks to torch BOS defense – in 58 minutes of action against ATL in the last game, CLE had only 22 assists for a subpar 45% assist/rate%!
CLE defense couldn’t stop ATL big men as expected as Millsap and Horford combined to shoot 20-34 from the field – almost a 60% FG mark! CLE’s frontline really struggles defending skilled big men that can shoot from the outside. The good news is that the Celtics don’t have such big men on their roster. They have more traditional post up players, so I expect CLE to bounce back defensively as well today.
We are dealing with an early game between two desperate teams that will have some problems to create easy points and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here as my Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 196.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 505 Brooklyn Nets @ 506 Indiana Pacers
Play #2
I think we have some nice value w/ Over in this contest…
The Nets were able to easily dismantle the Bucks last night, so they could manage the minutes of their key players as only Joe Johnson played more than 32 minutes. This is important because I would have pass if we were dealing with a “tired” Nets team.
Jason Kidd changed their starting lineup last night by inserting Shaun Livingston and Paul Pierce while playing KG @ center. However, regardless of who plays tonight, the Nets are still an awful perimeter defensive team as they are slow (and OLD) to rotate on the wings. The Pacers have been playing some decent offensive basketball as of late with 3 straight games scoring +100 points and I expect them to torch the Nets from long range. Note that in the last week’s h2h, the Pacers crushed the Nets @BKN w/ Paul George shooting 10-19 FG & Stevenson shooting 10-16 FG – not a coincidence!
The difference for tonight is that I expect the Nets to be respectable offensively. I don’t know if Kidd will repeat the same lineup for tonight but if he doesn’t, I expect Mirza Teletovic to start @ PF, so the Nets will play small ball against IND.
In the last h2h, the Nets scored only 86 points against IND but note that it was their first game without Lopez so they weren’t “prepared” to adjust so quickly and they were facing the best defensive team in the league. Even Paul Pierce was awful w/ 0-7 FG in just 15 minutes of action! The Nets will surprise a bit the Pacers with their new lineup on the offensive end and with IND scoring with some ease against them, I expect this contest to a relatively high scoring game.
The Nets were able to easily dismantle the Bucks last night, so they could manage the minutes of their key players as only Joe Johnson played more than 32 minutes. This is important because I would have pass if we were dealing with a “tired” Nets team.
Jason Kidd changed their starting lineup last night by inserting Shaun Livingston and Paul Pierce while playing KG @ center. However, regardless of who plays tonight, the Nets are still an awful perimeter defensive team as they are slow (and OLD) to rotate on the wings. The Pacers have been playing some decent offensive basketball as of late with 3 straight games scoring +100 points and I expect them to torch the Nets from long range. Note that in the last week’s h2h, the Pacers crushed the Nets @BKN w/ Paul George shooting 10-19 FG & Stevenson shooting 10-16 FG – not a coincidence!
The difference for tonight is that I expect the Nets to be respectable offensively. I don’t know if Kidd will repeat the same lineup for tonight but if he doesn’t, I expect Mirza Teletovic to start @ PF, so the Nets will play small ball against IND.
In the last h2h, the Nets scored only 86 points against IND but note that it was their first game without Lopez so they weren’t “prepared” to adjust so quickly and they were facing the best defensive team in the league. Even Paul Pierce was awful w/ 0-7 FG in just 15 minutes of action! The Nets will surprise a bit the Pacers with their new lineup on the offensive end and with IND scoring with some ease against them, I expect this contest to a relatively high scoring game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 Charlotte Bobcats @ 510 Atlanta Hawks
Play #3
CHA defense has been great all season long and after a 3-game stretch in which they were subpar, they “bounced” back last night and held OKC to just 89 points. Horford’s presence tonight would be a nightmare for CHA because Big Al Jefferson isn’t mobile enough to defend Horford when he goes “outside”. Note that in the first h2h game between these two teams, he was the MVP of the game w/ a great stats line of 9-15 FG, 6-7 FT, a game high 24 points and even 5 assists.
Without him, ATL will start Elton Brand and Brand is more valuable on the defensive end for the team. This is important because Brand will defend Al Jefferson on the post and it won’t be easy for Big Al to score down low. The Bobcats are coming from a tough loss vs. OKC last night w/ another bad offensive performance to show it. ATL defense will be focused in shutting down Kemba Walker and they have Jeff Teague as a capable defensive player for the job.
My Fair line for this contest is 190 points, so therefore, we have the proper edge to play the OVER in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 511 New Orleans Pelicans @ 512 Houston Rockets
Play #4 & 5
The Rockets are simply a nightmare matchup for this Pelican’s defense…
NO defense is ranked #19 defending P&R ball handler; #28 vs. spot up defense & #24 vs. transition. With such subpar numbers in these 3 key areas I would like to wish some luck for them because they’ll need against the Rockets offense.
Jason Smith is injured and Head Coach Monty Williams is using Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis in the starting lineup. Because they are shorthanded on the front, Ryan Anderson was “forced” to play 40minutes last night!
The key question for this contest: Who will defend Dwight Howard?!? Howard is coming from an awful game against MEM in which he played just 18 minutes, had just 1-5 FG and committed 5 personal fouls…surely he will be fired up for tonight and the Pelicans simply don’t have player on the roster that could slow him down.
NO will be forced to double Howard down low and so the Rockets shooters will enjoy having some uncontested wide looks on the perimeter. NO is coming from a game in which they faced a terrible shooting team (note that Andre Miller, Nate Robinson, and Randy Foye finished with zero points and one assist… each), to play one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the league while playing in the second leg of a b2b spot. It will be too much for them and I expect the Rockets to crush them in a run and gun affair.
The Nuggets are really struggling right now especially on the offensive end and I expect MEM to take advantage of it tonight.
Ty Lawson isn’t yet @100% and he struggled once against last night @NO w/ just 3-12 FG & 8 TO’s. Without his ability to drive to the basket and create looks for his teammates, the Nuggets are really a poor offensive team because they don’t have the proper shooting ability to be an efficient squad. To make things even worse, their frontcourt is a bit banged up right now w/ Faried and Arthur nursing some injuries.
On the other end, MEM is simply crushing their opponents on the boards! I have them w/ an incredible 57.8% reb/rate% in the last 5 games in which they grabbed 18, 22, 13, 11 and 20 offensive boards! Zach Randolph will dominate the game down low vs. hobbled Faried or an undersized JJ Hickson while I expect MEM to dominate the glass once again.
MEM is coming from a game @HOU in which they felt “robbed” with the way the referees handed 25 free throws to James Harden, so I expect them to be fired up. Mike Conley, like Ty Lawson is struggling w/ injuries but the X factor for this contest will be on the frontcourt w/ a rested and fired up MEM team vs. tired and struggling DEN team.
NO defense is ranked #19 defending P&R ball handler; #28 vs. spot up defense & #24 vs. transition. With such subpar numbers in these 3 key areas I would like to wish some luck for them because they’ll need against the Rockets offense.
Jason Smith is injured and Head Coach Monty Williams is using Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis in the starting lineup. Because they are shorthanded on the front, Ryan Anderson was “forced” to play 40minutes last night!
The key question for this contest: Who will defend Dwight Howard?!? Howard is coming from an awful game against MEM in which he played just 18 minutes, had just 1-5 FG and committed 5 personal fouls…surely he will be fired up for tonight and the Pelicans simply don’t have player on the roster that could slow him down.
NO will be forced to double Howard down low and so the Rockets shooters will enjoy having some uncontested wide looks on the perimeter. NO is coming from a game in which they faced a terrible shooting team (note that Andre Miller, Nate Robinson, and Randy Foye finished with zero points and one assist… each), to play one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the league while playing in the second leg of a b2b spot. It will be too much for them and I expect the Rockets to crush them in a run and gun affair.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 512 Houston Rockets (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 210.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 515 Denver Nuggets @ 516 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #6
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Ty Lawson isn’t yet @100% and he struggled once against last night @NO w/ just 3-12 FG & 8 TO’s. Without his ability to drive to the basket and create looks for his teammates, the Nuggets are really a poor offensive team because they don’t have the proper shooting ability to be an efficient squad. To make things even worse, their frontcourt is a bit banged up right now w/ Faried and Arthur nursing some injuries.
On the other end, MEM is simply crushing their opponents on the boards! I have them w/ an incredible 57.8% reb/rate% in the last 5 games in which they grabbed 18, 22, 13, 11 and 20 offensive boards! Zach Randolph will dominate the game down low vs. hobbled Faried or an undersized JJ Hickson while I expect MEM to dominate the glass once again.
MEM is coming from a game @HOU in which they felt “robbed” with the way the referees handed 25 free throws to James Harden, so I expect them to be fired up. Mike Conley, like Ty Lawson is struggling w/ injuries but the X factor for this contest will be on the frontcourt w/ a rested and fired up MEM team vs. tired and struggling DEN team.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 516 Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 521 Miami Heat @ 522 Portland Trail Blazers
Play #7 & 8
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Heat isn’t used to play @b2b games (only 4 b2b games) but so far they have played @PHI, @CHA, @ORL and @DET. As you can see, we are not talking about “premium” competition at all! To make things even worse, last night’s game @SAC went to OT, so we had Chalmers playing 44min, LeBron 44min or Bosh playing 35min. We have Chris Andersen banged up as well…
The biggest problem for the Heat tonight is related w/ REBOUNDING! POR is ranked #2 in the league in Off. Reb/rate% w/ 30.0% and they will face the Heat who everyone knows that they struggle on this department. This is even more problematic if Birdman doesn’t play tonight.
POR is a great team in closing out the shooters (one of the best 3pts defensive teams) so I expect them to be decent defending the perimeter as well.
On the other side, POR offense has been great but they were facing some poor perimeter defensive teams like PHI, DET, CLE, MIN or even NO so their offensive numbers are a bit underrated for this contest. MIA defense is #1 in the league defending P&R Ball handler plays so I expect them to hold POR offense in some degree.
I’m playing the Blazers tonight for a safe win w/ a strong second half while this contest won’t be a fun game to watch at all!
The biggest problem for the Heat tonight is related w/ REBOUNDING! POR is ranked #2 in the league in Off. Reb/rate% w/ 30.0% and they will face the Heat who everyone knows that they struggle on this department. This is even more problematic if Birdman doesn’t play tonight.
POR is a great team in closing out the shooters (one of the best 3pts defensive teams) so I expect them to be decent defending the perimeter as well.
On the other side, POR offense has been great but they were facing some poor perimeter defensive teams like PHI, DET, CLE, MIN or even NO so their offensive numbers are a bit underrated for this contest. MIA defense is #1 in the league defending P&R Ball handler plays so I expect them to hold POR offense in some degree.
I’m playing the Blazers tonight for a safe win w/ a strong second half while this contest won’t be a fun game to watch at all!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 521/522 Under 208.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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