Plays #1 & 2
Denver had an easy win at Brooklyn yesterday and that was natural given the favorable matchup they had. Denver had a clear edge on athleticism against Brooklyn's slow footed players in all areas: they crushed the Nets on boards by getting a 60% rebound rate, while they were also super efficient on pick and roll ball handler plays and transitions, something expected and that helps explain the blowout win. Also a nice note for the Nuggets' second unit that is starting to have a nice identity as well.
This blowout win allowed Coach Brian Shaw to rotate the team and so, no starter from Denver played more than 27 minutes last night. Anyway, this will be their third road game in four days, while being also on a back to back spot. I watched Cleveland's last game and besides some poor play down the stretch, this was their best game of the season so far, with Andrew Bynum finally having a good game with 8-14 FG, 20 points, 10 rebounds and 5 blocks in 30 minutes, while outplaying Joakim Noah! Cleveland was super aggressive especially on pick and rolls, where they were also efficient and it seems that Dion Waiters is like fish on water coming off the bench!
I believe Cleveland will go toe to toe with Denver tonight, as the Nuggets' backcourt defense should struggle to stop Kyrie Irving, Jarrett Jack and Dion Waiters. In fact, Denver's pick and roll ball handler defense is just #27 in the league while allowing 0.83 PPP, while on the frontcourt only Timofey Mozgov might limit Andrew Bynum, but the Russian center is foul prone. Therefore, I like Cleveland's spot tonight to make this game close and a high scoring one as well, so I'll be taking both the Cavs and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 201,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 703 Los Angeles Clippers @ 704 Atlanta Hawks
Play #3
Atlanta is coming from a nice game at San Antonio, where they only lost on a buzzer beat shot from Tim Duncan. Atlanta had a huge edge on the turnover battle (10 vs 21) and they also had a season high 3pts attempts with 31! At least they were kinda effective with 11-31 3pts. With so many perimeter shots, Atlanta wasn't aggressive down low and ended the game with just 5 FT attempts!
On the other hand, the Clippers are struggling in being consistent during the whole game. Chris Paul was out for a game and returned on the team's last game. J.J. Redick is still injured and this is worrying as he was their best shooter, an area where they are struggling with 6-25, 6-20 and 4-15 3pts on their last three games! They allowed 105 points to Indiana, who dominated the frontcourt battle, an area where the Clippers don't have a lot of depth. With Matt Barnes injured, Jared Dudley is also their only option for the SF position.
The most important duel on tonight's game will be between Jeff Teague and Chris Paul. If Teague doesn't have a good game while being aggressive, Atlanta becomes a pure jump shooting team, while I don't even need to mention how important Chris Paul is to the Clippers' offense. Kyle Korver is questionable for tonight and if he doesn't play, then both teams will be missing their best shooter tonight, something that will allow both teams to make an extra effort in stopping the opposing inside game. Both teams are also good on transition defense, so I really expect this game to be a surprising low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 202 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NBA - 707 Dallas Mavericks @ 708 New Orleans Pelicans
Play #4
New Orleans is coming from a triple overtime game, with Ryan Anderson playing 57 minutes, Al-Farouq Aminu 41 minutes and the remaining three starters playing 45, 47 and 49 minutes! With Anthony Davis injured, the Pelicans struggled on their interior defense, with Chicago shooting 21-33 (64%) FG at the rim, with Taj Gibson having a huge game with 10-19 FG, 6-8 FT and 7 offensive rebounds! On the other hand, Ryan Anderson was amazing on offense, with the Pelicans setting a slow pace on the game, but running in transition as much as possible with 23 fast break points, with 11-23 FG on transitions for 1.19 PPP!
Dallas had a tough win last night at home against Charlotte and after a poor 1-10 FG first half, Dirk Nowitzki bounced back and he was the key for his team down the stretch with a 9-11 FG and 21 points second half! It's curious that this was the third game in a row for Dallas where the pace was slower than their season average! Therefore, I actually expect this game to be a slow paced game. As Dallas's interior game isn't great, the Pelicans poor interior defense without Anthony Davis won't be explored tonight. I expect a relatively low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 207,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 Detroit Pistons @ 710 Milwaukee Bucks
Play #5
I think Detroit is going to lay a huge egg tonight. They will play their third game in four nights and they had to travel a lot between games, as they traveled from Detroit to Miami, just to play a back to back game tonight at Milwaukee! The first game of this stretch was at home against the Sixers, on a super fast paced game! Then, they had a stellar win at Miami last night, but where they didn't rotate the team a lot, as Brandon Jennings played 44 minutes, while both Greg Monroe and Josh Smith played almost 40! As Detroit is a jump shooting team, I expect them to struggle on this poor spot. This is the same team that shot 6-28 FG from +10 feet at home against the Lakers! As they crushed Milwaukee at home last week, I expect them to come relaxed for this game and to struggle tonight.
The good news for the Bucks is that in comparison to last week's game, they will have a more competent frontcourt available. John Henson is starting to finally get some playing time, while Ekpe Udoh is a much better defender than Zaza Pachulia, who is struggling in both ends of the floor. Milwaukee's main struggle on defense is on the perimeter, but this isn't Detroit's specialty on offense, so I believe Milwaukee should be highly competitive tonight and therefore, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Milwaukee Bucks (+5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NBA - 713 San Antonio Spurs @ 714 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #6
This game will be played in Mexico City, in high altitude, so this will be a special game.
"We have to be very aware on probably getting guys in earlier than we normally would" Timberwolves coach Rick Adelman said. "We had a scrimmage to get ready for it. Our substitutions will be quicker."
Therefore, this won't be a good spot for both offenses. Minnesota's offense would always struggle against San Antonio. The Wolves need to generate points down low with Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Love and when that doesn't happen, they struggle because their outside game is too inconsistent. San Antonio's rim defense is #3 in the league, while they are also #3 on post up defense. The Spurs are also #2 in the league on transition defense, so Minnesota would need to be super efficient from the outside tonight and this is something close to impossible for a team that shot 3-19, 5-20, 11-26 and 9-29 3pts on their last four games!
Minnesota has been struggling on defense lately and they aren't stopping their opponents from scoring easy points from down low, with 52, 60, 56 and 58 points in the paint allowed on their last four games, while allowing 71.4% FG at the rim! However, they will be more ready for tonight, especially as San Antonio didn't have a lot of time to prepare this game. This isn't a good spot for both offenses and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 715 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 716 Portland Trailblazers
Play #7
This is a duel that will always favor high scoring contests given the way both teams play. Portland's defense is focused on stopping their opponents from making threes and they are #2 in the league with 32.9% 3pts allowed. So, the Blazers struggle on paint defense by being #25 in the league with 43.8 ppg allowed and as they want their opponents to shoot from mid range, they are also poor on this area with 43.5% FG allowed from 16-23 feet! This is great for Oklahoma City, who isn't a good 3pts shooting team, but they are excellent on mid range shooting with 43.7% FG from 16-23 feet, good enough to be #4 in the league! So, I expect the Thunder's offense to have a good game tonight.
On the other hand, Oklahoma City's defense allows their opponents to shoot a lot of threes against them and this is excellent for Portland, who is a good jump shooting team. Portland defeated Indiana due to a great outside shooting game (14-26 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-13 3pts) and I expect something similar tonight. Therefore, I expect both teams to be great on offense today and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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