NBA - 809 Charlotte Bobcats @ 810 Detroit Pistons
Play #4
This is a great matchup for a low scoring game, as both teams are indeed poor shooting ones who need to score near the basket to be effective on offense. The problem is that both interior defenses are excellent and they won't allow that in here. Charlotte is a top 3 team on rim defense and #1 on paint defense with 35.7 points per game allowed. On the other hand, the Bobcats are also #1 on fast break points allowed per game! Therefore, they are the perfect defense to stop Detroit's offense!
The Pistons' defense struggles on spot ups, but Charlotte isn't the right team to take advantage of that with their poor outside shooting. On the other hand, the Pistons' post up defense is excellent and they will make Al Jefferson's job on offense very difficult. Kemba Walker will also struggle with his small size to score near the basket over Detroit's very big frontcourt formed by Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith. Therefore, I expect both defenses to dominate the opposing offenses in here and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Under 192 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NBA - 811 Houston Rockets @ 812 Indiana Pacers
Plays #5 & 6
I believe Indiana will have a mega edge in here, as they are one of the few teams who can actually defend Dwight Howard 1*1 with Roy Hibbert. As they can do that, then they will have more players available to shutdown the Rockets' perimeter with their elite 3pts defense. Indiana's defense is built around to defend the opposing treys and with the Rockets being without Jeremy Lin, they have less one shooter available for tonight. James Harden is also banged up, so I believe that Paul George, Lance Stephenson and George Hill will do an excellent defensive job on Houston's back court tonight.
Indiana has lost their last two games and I'm sure that they will be fired up for tonight, after losing their last game at Miami the way they lost it. This is a National TV game, so this is an excellent bounce back opportunity for the Pacers in here. Houston is coming from facing four poor defenses, especially on the interior: Portland, Golden State, Sacramento, Chicago (struggling a lot lately). However, they only managed to have 16, 20, 15 and 23 assists on these games. Now against an elite fired up team, I believe Indiana will have a big win tonight, while shutting down the Rockets, so I'll be taking both Indiana and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811/812 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 812 Indiana Pacers (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 813 Toronto Raptors @ 814 Dallas Mavericks
Plays #7 & 8
Toronto will have a massive edge in here, as they are an elite team on offensive rebounding against the poor defensive rebounding team of Dallas. The Mavericks are allowing 14.3 offensive rebounds per game over their last eight contests and Memphis even grabbed 22 offensive rebounds against them recently! Toronto's new look offense is very based on pick and rolls with Kyle Lowry and then with Greivis Vasquez coming off the bench. They had a good streak of efficient offensive games until their last game against Charlotte, where they struggled. This offensive letdown was normal given the fact that Charlotte is a good interior defensive team and they are #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense and #4 on pick and roll roll man defense!
On the other hand, Dallas is just #11 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #22 on pick and roll roll man defense, so the Raptors' offense should get back into their effective performances tonight! This is especially true given the fact that Dallas's rim protection is also poor with 65% FG allowed. On the other side, Dallas should also have a nice offensive game tonight. Toronto is coming from three defensive performances in a row with 106, 83 and 99 defensive ratings, but they faced Philadelphia, Chicago and Charlotte, three teams that are #27, #28 and #29 on offensive ratings respectively. Dallas is a top 10 team and they will be much more effective on offense than these teams tonight. I expect a very close and offensive-minded game tonight, so I'll be taking both the Raptors and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 813/814 Over 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 813 Toronto Raptors (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 807 Sacramento Kings @ 808 Miami Heat
Play #1 & 2
Miami is coming from a big win against Indiana with a spectacular comeback down the stretch. Dwyane Wade played 37 minutes, LeBron James 36 minutes and Chris Bosh 31 minutes, while Chris Anderson also had an important role with 4-5 FG and 8 points on 28 minutes. The Pacers played well, but Roy Hibbert's foul trouble ruined the game for them. Miami will now host Sacramento, a team that has DeMarcus Cousins to pound them down low and get offensive rebounds to take advantage of Miami's undersized lineup.
This is the typical spot that Miami generally has after big games, especially against lowly teams. Sacramento will certainly set a uptempo style in here, but their perimeter defense will be also explored by Miami's offense. In fact, on the Kings' last game, the Hawks with a good ball movement and nice shooters scored 124 points against them with 15-25 3pts and 26 fast break points. This is a similar spot that Miami had against Utah, where the Heat toyed on offense with the lowly Jazz. The question in here is that Sacramento's offense will have much more edges than Utah had in that game, especially due to having DeMarcus Cousins down low. Also Trey Burke got crushed by Miami's high pressuring defense and his lack of experience caused him some turnovers, something that won't happen so often with Isaiah Thomas tonight. I believe the Kings will run the Heat close in here on a super high scoring game and so, I'll be taking both Sacramento and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807 Sacramento Kings (+10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 803 Milwaukee Bucks @ 804 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #3
Milwaukee is coming from a double overtime game at home against the Knicks, something really tough for a team that is currently shorthanded. Therefore, three players needed to play over 50 minutes on this game! The Bucks are a terrible defensive rebounding team, with no absolute inside presence and so, I expect Cleveland's frontcourt to absolutely pound Milwaukee down low tonight. Then, Milwaukee's defense is also terrible on pick and roll ball handler plays and Kyrie Irving and Jarrett Jack should be ready to pound the Bucks on this area as well tonight, even though Irving is currently battling an illness.
Cleveland has been super competitive as of late by battling toe to toe against elite teams like Portland. Even if Dion Waiters doesn't play tonight (he is questionable with a wrist injury), I believe the Cavaliers have enough conditions to blowout the shorthanded and tired Bucks on this spot. Therefore, I'll be taking Cleveland tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 804 Cleveland Cavaliers (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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