NBA - 515 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 516 San Antonio Spurs
Play #7
I believe Oklahoma City is playing better than San Antonio right now and there are some important details that will also help the Thunder in here. First of all, Tony Parker is questionable for tonight, but even if he plays, he won't be at 100% and Russell Westbrook will take advantage of that. However, the main edge for the Thunder tonight will be at the PF position. Tiago Splitter is currently very far from his level from last season and even though he had the winning shot against the Warriors, he ended that game with 1-7 FG in 28 minutes! Mostly thanks to this and to Boris Diaw's poor defense, the Spurs' frontcourt is getting outrebounded, while Oklahoma City has been rebounding well and Serge Ibaka will have a mega matchup edge in here.
Oklahoma City's flow on offense has been also surprisingly great lately, similar to San Antonio's flow. They are averaging 24.8 assists per game over their last eight games and they are coming from a 26 assists game against the Bulls.
"If we move the ball like that with the guys we have that create for everybody, create for themselves, it makes it tough on other teams." Kevin Durant said.
Finally, in theory the Spurs would have a second unit edge over the Thunder, but I actually doubt that will happen in here, as Oklahoma City's second unit has been superb lately! All of this makes me believe that Oklahoma City has great value at the current line and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Oklahoma City Thunder (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 517 Dallas Mavericks @ 518 Phoenix Suns
Play #8
Both teams are on a poor physical spot tonight, as they will be playing their third game in four nights. These two teams are jump shooting ones, so this game won't be easy for them at all. Dallas is coming from a home loss against Toronto on overtime last night, with Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion and Monta Ellis playing over 40 minutes. However, I believe the Mavericks' defense should be able to do a decent job against Phoenix's offense. Dallas is #11 on pick and roll ball handler defense and they will certainly use some zone defense in here. Phoenix keeps having good offensive numbers, but without a great ball movement, with just 19 assists last night, after having had just 17 and 16 assists on their two previous games.
On the other hand, Dallas's offense with tired legs will also struggle against Phoenix's aggressive perimeter defense. Both teams have as their weakest link on defense the painted area, but both offenses won't explore that as that's not how they play on offense. Therefore, I have an excellent spot in here to have both offenses struggling tonight and so, looking at the current totals line, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Under 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 521 Denver Nuggets @ 522 Los Angeles Clippers
Plays #9 & 10
Denver is struggling as Ty Lawson is currently banged up. He made a valiant effort to play last night, but he struggled with 3-11 FG, 7 assists and 5 turnovers. Denver has a problem with their interior defense due to their starting front court formed by J.J. Hickson and Kenneth Faried, who will get crushed by DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin tonight. Then, the Nuggets' perimeter defense is also quite poor, with them being #26 on pick and roll ball handler defense, something that Phoenix explored well last night with 8-15 FG and 1.11 PPP. Chris Paul will definitely pound them in here with his pick and rolls tonight.
The Clippers struggled on perimeter shooting during their road trip, as they would have good looks, but they just couldn't score. Things changed lately on this area as well, with 9-21, 11-23 and 11-29 3pts on their last three games! Therefore, I believe that the Clippers' offense will absolutely crush Denver in here. The Nuggets will set a super fast pace in here, but that will only benefit the super confident Clippers. I believe the LA team will get a double digits win tonight on a super high scoring game and so, I'll be taking both the Clippers and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Over 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Los Angeles Clippers (-8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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NBA - 519 New Orleans Pelicans @ 520 Portland Trail Blazers
Play #1
I expect the Pelicans to be a tough matchup for the Blazers tonight, especially w/ POR returning home after a long and exhausting road trip – not a good mental and physical spot.
A. Davis returned last game @LAC and although he looked a bit rusty, his stats line said otherwise: 10-18 FG, 24 points, 12 rebounds and 3 steals. The Pelicans didn’t have a chance vs. LAC because they were mired in a tough spot – 2nd night of a b2b and two of their top guards Eric Gordon & Evans struggled in that game.
NO will have 2 interesting edges in this matchup: 1) they will explore POR’ bad interior defense especially with A. Davis back in the lineup and 2) Jrue Holiday will be a tough matchup for Lillard in both ends of the floor.
Obviously, the Blazers great shooting offense will make some damage against the Pelicans bad perimeter defense but w/ the Pelicans being a good rebounding team and their edge in key areas, I expect them to be competitive and therefore, I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.
A. Davis returned last game @LAC and although he looked a bit rusty, his stats line said otherwise: 10-18 FG, 24 points, 12 rebounds and 3 steals. The Pelicans didn’t have a chance vs. LAC because they were mired in a tough spot – 2nd night of a b2b and two of their top guards Eric Gordon & Evans struggled in that game.
NO will have 2 interesting edges in this matchup: 1) they will explore POR’ bad interior defense especially with A. Davis back in the lineup and 2) Jrue Holiday will be a tough matchup for Lillard in both ends of the floor.
Obviously, the Blazers great shooting offense will make some damage against the Pelicans bad perimeter defense but w/ the Pelicans being a good rebounding team and their edge in key areas, I expect them to be competitive and therefore, I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 519 New Orleans Pelicans (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Washington Wizards @ 504 Boston Celtics
Play #2
NOTE: early game, no detailed write up for this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 505 Sacramento Kings @ 506 Orlando Magic
On the other hand, Houston's defense has been pounding down low lately, with 66, 52, 40 and 48 points allowed in the paint. Their rim defense is struggling and allowing 68%(!) FG on this area over their last 10 games! Therefore, I believe the Pistons will take advantage of that with their powerful front court. Even though the Rockets are on paper a good jump shooting team and they would pound Detroit tonight, they are so banged up that they will continue struggling on their outside shooting, while Detroit will attack the paint and get a nice edge on this area. Therefore, I believe we have nice edge in here on Detroit as home underdogs and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Plays #3 & 4
Sacramento's defense had no chance against Atlanta's and Miami's spread offenses, as they have good shooters all over the floor, ready to explore the Kings' poor team help defense. This is why the Hawks and the Heat had 38 and 32 assists in those games. The question is that Orlando's offense won't be able to do something similar in here. The Magic's offense is based on pick and rolls, spot ups and transitions plus while Atlanta is #1 on assist rates and Miami is #4, Orlando is just #24! The Magic are #14 on pick and roll ball handler offense, but they aren't good on spot ups and transitions. In fact, they are just shooting 32.3% 3pts over the last 10 games (#24)! Therefore, I believe that Sacramento's defense has a nice spot in here to bounce back decently in here, after getting crushed in back to back games.
Orlando is a good team when it comes to protecting the basket and it isn't easy to game to have monster games against them by pounding them down low with a lot of points in the paint. The Magic are #4 on points in the paint allowed, #2 on post up defense and they are allowing just 60% FG at the rim! Therefore, Sacramento won't have in here a good spot to score a lot of easy points, even though DeMarcus Cousins should outplay Nikola Vucevic. However, the Kings' pick and roll offense led by Isaiah Thomas should have a mega edge on offense against Orlando's poor defense, who is just #22 on pick and roll ball handler defense. Therefore, I expect a relatively low scoring game in here with Sacramento having the slight upper hand and so, I'll be taking both the Kings and the Under tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Sacramento Kings (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 509 Houston Rockets @ 510 Detroit Pistons
Play #5
***NOTE: I like Detroit up to -2, as James Harden isn't playing and Rodney Stuckey is playing***
Both teams are in back to back spots tonight, with both coming from losses last night. It's clear to me that Houston is now super banged up. Jeremy Lin is out, Omer Asik is out, James Harden is playing with an ankle injury, while Chandler Parsons is struggling with a back injury. Houston may be an offensive machine, but they are some worrying facts on this area lately. First of all, their number of assists has been quite low for them: 18, 13, 15, 22, 16, 20, 15, 23 and 10 assists! Then, their 3pts shooting hasn't been great neither with 9-28, 9-31, 6-28, 10-33, 5-20, 12-29, 7-27, 8-22 and 4-22 3pts on their last nine games! In normal conditions, Houston's perimeter shooting would crush Detroit's poor back court defense, but this seems unlikely to happen with Houston struggling on this area lately. Then, on the front court, Dwight Howard has been playing well, but Terrence Jones will struggle against Greg Monroe in here.
On the other hand, Houston's defense has been pounding down low lately, with 66, 52, 40 and 48 points allowed in the paint. Their rim defense is struggling and allowing 68%(!) FG on this area over their last 10 games! Therefore, I believe the Pistons will take advantage of that with their powerful front court. Even though the Rockets are on paper a good jump shooting team and they would pound Detroit tonight, they are so banged up that they will continue struggling on their outside shooting, while Detroit will attack the paint and get a nice edge on this area. Therefore, I believe we have nice edge in here on Detroit as home underdogs and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Detroit Pistons (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NBA - 511 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 512 Chicago Bulls
Play #6
Chicago is currently playing without Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler and Kirk Hinrich is also doubtful to play tonight. Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson may offer some resistance, but looking at how easy it will be for the opposing guards to enter the paint, no defense can't handle this. The Bulls' offense managed to have a decent performance at Oklahoma City due to their 39 FT attempts, as they struggled in the rest with 37.7% FG, 20 assists, 17 turnovers and 8-29 3pts. With the Bulls' back court struggling and missing several key players, Chicago will need monster games from Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson, something that won't be easy against Cleveland's front court.
The Cavaliers' spot might not be great, as they are coming from an overtime win at home against Milwaukee last night. However, only Kyrie Irving played more than 40 minutes with 42! Cleveland had a nice outside shooting game, but a total inability to score down low with Andrew Bynum (3-14 FG), Tristan Thompson (4-12 FG) and Anderson Varejao (2-6 FG) having a combined if 9-32 (28%) FG! The Cavaliers' front court crushed Chicago on the last game between these two teams and the Bulls were only competitive due to Luol Deng having a big game with 12-20 FG, 27 points and 11 assists! So, I believe Cleveland has a great shot for the upset tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Cleveland Cavaliers (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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