Play #1
Houston is coming from a win at San Antonio, in a game that was played at a frenetic pace and unlike the Spurs, Coach Kevin McHale didn't rest his starters at all, as all of them playing over 31 minutes, with Chandler Parsons playing a game high 40 minutes, even though he is still struggling with back pain. On the other side, Utah had a nice win at Phoenix, after having lost at home against the same Suns the night before. Utah keeps having the same defensive issues with their new starting lineup (Favors + Marvin + Jefferson + Hayward + Burke): horrible pick and roll defense, especially when Burke is involved in the defensive process. It's easy for the opposing guards to make dribble penetrations against them and they also struggle on making the close outs on the perimeter. Phoenix made 20 treys against them, while both Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe had good performances.
The difference with this new Jazz lineup is that they win a lot offensively. With Marvin Williams replacing Enes Kanter at a stretch 4, the Jazz spread the floor well and their rookie PG Trey Burke is quickly showing some good offensive weapons, with a nice 20 points game against the Suns. The Jazz's defense will have problems against Houston on pick and rolls and outside shooting, however I think Utah will have a nice offensive game in here and at home, I expect them to make this game actually close, as this isn't a good spot for the Rockets at all. Therefore, I'll be taking the Jazz tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Utah Jazz (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 701 Orlando Magic @ 702 Washington Wizards
Play #2
Nene Hilario returned to the team and of course, with that Washington's offense improved big time once again. The Wizards had just scored 73 points at Indiana the night before without him, but with Nene back in the lineup, the Wizards had a great offensive game against Atlanta. Their pick and rolls, spot ups and transitions worked well, but then their starters were on the floor for a very heavy number of minutes! On the other side, Orlando didn't stand a chance against San Antonio, even though they were playing without Tony Parker. The Spurs' depth and confidence were the key for this game, besides the fact that Tim Duncan had finally a big game with 8-13 FG, 3-3 FT, 19 points and 9 rebounds in 23 minutes, while also stopping Nikola Vucevic, who had just 4-12 FG and 8 turnovers! In fact, Orlando ended the game with 0-7 FG on post ups, which shows the Magic's inability to score near the basket against the Spurs' elite rim defense. On the other hand, the Magic's perimeter shooting was at a nice level, but that wasn't enough to beat the Spurs.
For tonight's game, I believe Orlando will be more competitive because Washington's interior defense has nothing to do with the Spurs. If San Antonio is allowing 57% FG at the rim and 38.5% FG from 4-9 feet, Washington is allowing 64% FG and 43% FG in those areas! Another important factor has to do with the bench. If the Magic hang around with the Spurs' starters and only San Antonio's bench outplayed them, things will be different with Washington's poor bench, who won't outplay anybody. Therefore, I expect a close game in here and so, I'll be taking the Magic tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Orlando Magic (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 New Orleans Pelicans @ 704 Chicago Bulls
Play #3
Yesterday I wrote the following regarding the Pelicans offense and their matchup with the Knicks defense:
“The Pelicans' offense is based on pick and rolls, spot ups with Ryan Anderson on the floor and a strong transition game due to their guards' quickness. The Knicks' defense struggled in all these three areas by being #28 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #21 on spot up defense and #29 on transition defense.”
Things will be tougher for New Orleans tonight, as Chicago's defense is ranked #9, #11 and #16 respectively. Not exactly elite, but much better than the Knicks. The Pelicans won yesterday at New York, mostly due to a massive game by Ryan Anderson, who torched the Knicks' terrible perimeter defense with treys after treys. Chicago is coming from a loss at Cleveland, where they were surprisingly outplayed in the frontcourt. Andrew Bynum had his best game in Cleveland with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 5 blocks, while outplaying Joakim Noah! The Bulls were outrebounded, while Cleveland had 0.91 PPP on post ups!
Anthony Davis's absence is a huge blow for the Pelicans for tonight's frontcourt battle. Without Davis, the Pelicans only have Jason Smith, Ryan Anderson, Lou Amundson and maybe Al-Farouq Aminu for the PF position. However, the Pelicans will have an edge on the backcourt with Jrue Holiday and with Tyreke Evans coming off the bench against the Bulls' slow footed backcourt, who has been struggling on transition and pick and roll ball handler defense lately. However, I believe both teams will show some issues on offense, as Chicago's offense is struggling at the moment and the Pelicans will have some issues on offense as well against a decent defense, especially on a back to back spot for them. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 191,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 709 Indiana Pacers @ 710 Portland Trailblazers
Play #4
Indiana is now on a road trip in the West and after shutting down a bunch of Eastern teams during the early season, I actually expect them to see involved in a bunch of high scoring games on this road trip. The Pacers will play at Portland tonight against a team that faced the Lakers in LA yesterday and had a major scare down the stretch, after being up by 94-74 at the end of the third quarter. Portland actually shot worse than the Lakers (43.7% FG vs 46.0%) and even committed more turnovers. What saved them was the fact that they crushed the boards by grabbing 56% of the rebounds, with LaMarcus Aldridge crushing the Lakers poor interior defense.
Of course, the Blazers will have more problems tonight, especially on defense, as they are weak at the Center and PG positions, so Roy Hibbert has an excellent spot for a good offensive game tonight. On the other hand, the Pacers' defense is built around protecting the paint and the 3pts area as much as possible, leaving open space for the mid-range jumpers. This can become problematic for them against a Portland team, who is actually a really nice jump shooting team. Therefore, I expect a quite good offensive game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 191,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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