NBA Free Premium Play 12/12: Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers

Houston  at Portland

NBA - 503 Houston Rockets @ 504 Portland Trail Blazers Play #2 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** The public just love the Over in this contest and the total line jumped @215.5 points. My fair line is 208/210 points so now we have the proper edge to make a big play w/ the UNDER. These two teams are great offensive teams but I think that defense will be a key factor for tonight due to the way the matchups will work. After being humiliated @Utah by losing & allowing 109 points to the lowly Jazz, the Rockets have now 3 solid consecutive great defensive games w/ Def. Rtg of 101.7, 84.0 and 94.2. In this stretch, note that the great Warriors offense was held to just 83 points! Houston defensive rebounding ranking in the league is a subpar #19 w/ 74.1% Defensive Rebounding% but lately they have been great in not allowing offensive boards to their opponents, L5 games = 81%! This is important because the Blazers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league (ranked #4 w/ 28.9%) and with the Rockets doing a solid job on the defensive glass, the Blazers won’t be able to score on second chances. POR in their L4 games grabbed 16, 17, 17 and 11 offensive boards but tonight they will have a tough task to get that many off. Reb. It might sound strange to say, but James Harden has looked better defensively lately. GSW offensive strategy was to explore Harden’s bad defense but he answered pretty well in that game, it was one of the biggest reasons why GSW struggled so badly offensively in that game. The perception is that the Rockets are a bad defensive team but I have them ranked #8 in defensive efficiency! On the other end, the Blazers defense will have some problems to contain Dwight Howard but their primary defensive principle – defend the 3pts line (they are ranked #6 allowing just 33.8%) is built to face a team like the Rockets who are #1 in Three Pointers Attempted per Game w/ 27.6 mark. Note that after their great shooting display @SAS, the Rockets are shooting only 28% behind the line (34-120) so we have a nice defensive edge in this key area. In the first h2h, the Rockets won on the road in a game that ended w/ 217 points. Here some factors that explains such high scoring outcome that won’t happen tonight: 1) The Rockets were playing w/ Asik & Howard together on the front and with Jeremy Lin & Harden on the backcourt. The current starting lineup w/ Beverly and Jones filling Asik & Lin makes the Rockets a better defensive team when compared vs. early on the season; 2) Robin Lopez battled foul trouble (played only 18 minutes) and his primary backup was Meyers Leonard! Obviously it was a field day for Howard (10-13 FG, 9-12 FT) as it was too easy to score near the basket. I have HOU w/ 27-41 FG near the basket in that game! Lopez is playing some solid basketball and Leonard was so bad defensively that he is out of the rotation right now! I'm taking the UNDER in here as my Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 215.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker